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Thread: 外汇 如何判断顶底

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    Default 外汇 如何判断顶底

    外汇 如何判断顶底
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    推荐对于外汇投资者来说,能够在底部作多,或在顶部做空,是多少人梦寐以求的事,一旦能够抢在顶底进场,就无须担心市场的波动,更不用提心吊胆的盯盘。今天,我们就来探讨一下,抓住顶底这个诱人的命题是否成立。
      其实,顶底都是一样的,把底反过来看就是顶,因此只要能学会抓底,也就学会了抓顶。

      通常来讲,可以有三种方法来推测底部(这里的底部指中期底部,长期底部通常需要耗时几个月甚至数年)。

      一是根据形态,比如波浪理论中的驱动浪和调整浪,当驱动浪走出5浪形态后,可以判断底部为期不远了,或者调整浪走出abc结构后,也可以依法炮制。但波浪是一个很主观的东西,不同的人对浪型有不同的划分方法,可以说是仁者见仁,智者见智,而且尽管波浪理论很经典,但属于后验证,只有新的波浪开始,才能确认前一个波浪走完,数浪时出错的概率较大。此外,双重底、三重底、圆弧底等形态,也是经常使用的手段。


      二是根据k线形态,比如日线图如果收出了十字星,或是锤子线,就是一个触底的初步信号,如果2天或3天的k线组合出现了看涨抱线,或是早晨之星,那就可以提升触底的几率。但k线同样有自己的弱点,不论是十字星还是早晨之星,都有可能演变为中继形态。

      三是根据技术指标,比如macd、kdj等,最常用的判断方法是观察是否出现背离,即指标的运动方向与k线不再同步,比如k线杀出新低后指标却并未创出新低。

      这三种情况同时出现的越多,底部出现的几率也就越大,但这并不能百分百的保证一定会出现底部,因为市场的运行是很复杂的,底部的形成也是很复杂的,在底部走出来之前,没有人能保证自己看到的就是底,而且也不会有人给你上保险。只能说,出现这三种情况的话,便有了构筑底部的机会,但底部最后能否成立,还要看市场自己的发展。


      因此如果回头来看本文开头的话,只能说想抓住顶底的愿望是美好的,但事实是残酷的,可以尝试着判断顶底,但不能以此为依据进行操作,主观猜测顶底是投机交易中最致命的硬伤之一,或许一次两次可以抓住顶底,但多数情况下都以失败告终。换一种思维,如果顶底是很容易就抓住的,那这世界上的亿万富翁就不计其数了。

      因此,在操作中,我们尽可以发挥想象,在头脑中勾画顶底的样子,但绝不能因此让自己的交易暴露在风险中,最保险的方式是,耐心等待顶部或底部的出现,待汇价反向突破重要的支撑或阻力后,再寻机卖出或买入,这样会更保险一些。

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    待汇价反向突破重要的支撑或阻力后,再寻机卖出或买入
    仔细品味上面这句话,对实际操作很有帮助

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    判断顶底是基本功,但是楼主别忘了,最好别抄底!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by dqrs View Post
    待汇价反向突破重要的支撑或阻力后,再寻机卖出或买入
    仔细品味上面这句话,对实际操作很有帮助
    对的,回抽时是最稳妥的入市点,即所谓的顺长周期逆短周期

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