BUY FXO Forum Shares
1316
Shares in the BANK:
We BuyWe Sell
$1.8211$1.8774
Results 1 to 2 of 2

Thread: 美联储料再降息一码後维持利率不变,但仍暗示继续降息

  1. #1
    In Profit hsgncn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    148
    FXO Shares
    0
    FXO Bonus
    0.000
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default 美联储料再降息一码後维持利率不变,但仍暗示继续降息

    美联储料再降息一码後维持利率不变,但仍暗示继续降息
    2008年 4月 23日 星期三 14:39 BJT
    路透华盛顿4月22日电---美国联邦储备委员会(FED)很可能在下周降息25个基点,之後料维持利率不变,但预计其对外仍将暗示会进一步放松货币政策.


    观察人士认为联储在4月30日政策会议结束时发布的声明将承认,尽管经济增长的下行风险仍是最主要威胁,但通膨风险同样令人担忧.


    前美联储理事Lyle Gramley表示:"我认为他们会调降(联邦基金利率)至2.0%,并指出他们正关注着通膨问题,暗示未来可能进一步降息."


    "不过降幅的大小也将向暗示市场,美联储不太愿意像过去那样大刀阔斧了,"他说道.


    以达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁费希尔为代表的鹰派决策者反复警告注意通膨风险.费希尔周二解释为何反对近来的降息时表示,联储的政策并未取得多少收效.


    美联储自9月中旬以来已将联邦基金利率调降3个百分点至2.25%,以此来保护经济免受美国房价下跌、抵押贷款违约率上升和全球信贷紧缩的打击.


    联储还推出了一系列新的流动性管理工具来给信贷市场松绑,不过市况仍然很疲弱,短期银行间资金市场承受的压力尤其沉重,因而降息举措的作用并不明显.


    "我认为整体上来看联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)更关注经济增长.但已采取的措施若并不能促进增长,同时又会加剧通膨,那麽继续大力推动就没有多大意义了,"Gramley说道.


    通膨压力沉重

    伦敦银行间拆放款利率(LIBOR)近几周来上扬,高盛估计这可能使浮动利率房屋抵押贷款成本增加150-200亿美元.该投行还预测美联储下周可能降息至2.0%.


    高盛在报告中写道:"这毫无疑问让联储官员感到不安,同时也让降息的可能性上升."
    Libor上升,而美元兑欧元创下了新低,石油价格攀升至纪录高位每桶118美元,使通膨压力进一步上升.


    费希尔周二接受华尔街日报采访时承认信贷市场压力重重,金融系统的运转受到阻滞,以此来反驳进一步降息的主张."问题是:进一步降息会有何效果?会起作用吗?"他说道,"我们是否得到了预期的效果?这的确是个问题,很明显没有."


    费希尔以及费城联邦储备银行总裁普洛瑟在3月18日的联储会议上均对降息75个百分点持反对意见,以他们为代表决策者将通膨风险作为首要考虑.


    美国今年第一季的消费者物价指数(CPI)较上年同期上扬4.0%.


    不过观察人士相信,美联储主席贝南克与周围官员已开始达成共识,即不必再进行太多降息,尽管市场对脆弱不堪的金融体系的忧虑仍在.


    DMJ Advisers的David Jones说道:"贝南克将开始对进一步降息感到不安,因为他们正在进入实质利率为负的区域,且通膨预期可能上升."


    事实上,联储已在3月18日的声明中承认未来通膨预期有所恶化.自那以後,10年期通膨保值公债和普通10期公债的利差已有所收紧,不过决策者并未放松警惕.


    "1970年代的萧条已经给我们教训,如果你寄希望油价高涨的影响不会扩散进而引发大范围通膨,那麽你最好能对通膨预期加以控制,"Jones说道.(完)

  2. #2
    Bullish
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    90
    FXO Shares
    0
    FXO Bonus
    0.000
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default

    学习呀
    年到心痛

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Disclaimer
2005-2016 © FXOpen All rights reserved. Various trademarks held by their respective owners.

Risk Warning:: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgment as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

FXOpen Markets Limited, a company duly registered in Nevis under the company No. C 42235. FXOpen is a member of The Financial Commission.

FXOpen AU Pty Ltd., a company authorised and regulated by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC). AFSL 412871ABN 61 143 678 719.

FXOpen Ltd. a company registered in England and Wales under company number 07273392 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (previously, the Financial Services Authority) under FCA firm reference number 579202.

FXOpen does not provide services for United States residents.

Join us