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Thread: 波段操作≠频繁买卖

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    Default 波段操作≠频繁买卖

      50美金开户的优秀交易平台前一阵子,有关游资的话题传得似乎有点邪乎,结果是其出手狠、准、稳的操盘风格渐为市场所称道,其频频短炒的手法与理念也多被投资者所接受并效仿。(大幕拉开:一种惊人的抄底赢利模式!)

      然而,在一盈二平七亏损的市场博弈(实情更差)中,频繁操作是否就能增加胜算几率呢?算一算就会知道个大概。假定市场总体盈亏之比为3?(姑且认为不亏持平也算是胜局吧),操作3次至少有2次盈利的概率为C23(0.3)20.7+C33(0.3)3=21.6%,而4次中至少有3次盈利的概率为8.37%,5次、6次、7次中半数以上盈利的概率分别是16.31%、7.05%、12.6%,不再一一往下罗列了。显然,盈利机会随着操作次数的加大而呈现出逐步下降的趋势。当然,盈利次数比例过半的胜算比刚好为半数的会稍大一些,出现小的反复,但不影响总体的下降趋势。由此得出的结论是,频繁操作非但不能增加胜算反而会降低盈利几率,这表明操作的着眼点不应放在买卖次数上。那么机会藏于何处呢?其实,胜算的关键取决于盈利幅度超过亏损幅度。这虽近乎于常识,但却很难做到:即使分别盈亏相同百分点的幅度r%(-10%≤r≤10%),都会造成恰好是它平方数(r%)2的损失,尽管此比值看似微不足道,然而一旦资金量放大,比如增至f,操作次数增多,比如达到n次,损失就相当可观了,可表示为f〔1-(r%)2〕n。结果,您会发现还是操作过频在作祟。

      显然,波段操作不等于频繁买卖。对于投资者来说,在游资横空出世,风卷残云之际,不宜盲目跟风、频繁买卖,还是应以价值投资为主,选择适当时机波段持股为上。

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    据一些银行的内部统计,在杠杆交易的国际外汇市场,2年后新手的生存率不到5%,这些都是初学者想要在这个市场获得成功必须支付的代价。想学手艺,先交学费,但新手需要交尽量少的学费,获得尽量多的经验和教训,为将来的成功铺垫。外汇市场有句名言,当你把该犯的错误都犯一遍,并且同样的错误不再犯第二次,那你就可以开始赚钱了。这句话有些极端,但不失睿智。

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    着眼点不应放在买卖次数上

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    应以价值投资为主

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    关键点位的把握不是一两天能做到的。一个操盘手的培养是用金钱堆积起来的。慢慢努力吧。最小的头寸前进吧。

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    切记:别因眼前价格涨落影响而轻易改变决定,基于当日价位的变化以及市场消息而临时作出决定是十分危险的,要严格遵守铁一样的纪律。

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    实际操作中,一个星期都可能经历大喜大悲两重天

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    频繁操作必定带来的是交易失误的增加.

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    shaoyinwang
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    波段怎样区分和选择?

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    Quote Originally Posted by shaoyinwang View Post
    波段怎样区分和选择?
    波段的区分和选择,这是交易的关键所在
    我个人以均线来判断波段

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