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Thread: 暴跌i

  1. #1
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    Default 暴跌i

    周三大盘非但没有出现预期中的突破20日均线的举动,反而出现了暴跌行情,收盘沪深股市分别大跌了5.50%和3.78%,上证指数失守3600点和3500点两个整数关口以及5日和10日均线。大盘在周二收出放量十字星之后,由于周三的暴跌,日k线形成阴包阳的组合,顿时使大盘的后市充满了变数,不少投资者对未来的行情又悲观起来。笔者坚定地认为,昨天大盘的暴跌不是反弹行情的结束,而是未来半年上涨行情的中途换档,经过短暂的休整之后,大盘仍会继续反弹。为什么做出这样的判断呢?
      一是本次带领大盘起死回生的主要指标股目前形态良好,主力还在。本次大盘见底,靠的就是银行、保险和地产三大板块率先启动,判断行情是否结束,通过观察率先启动的板块目前处于什么状态,就可以知道未来大盘将如何运行。笔者发现中国平安、深发展、浦发银行、万科a、中国国航等指标股昨天虽然也出现了深幅调整,但它们的收盘价仍在20日均线之上。也就是说,大盘的"救世主"类个股的走势远远强于大盘,说明进驻这些股票的资金并没有大规模撤退。只要超级主力还在,后市就有希望。
      二是周三大盘之所以深幅调整有技术上和主力收集廉价筹码两个方面的因素。从技术上看,上证指数20日均线压制大盘,而市场经过连续上涨之后,已经没有动能来收复20日均线,通过洗盘来减轻未来上涨时获利盘的压力,既可收缩拳头后致使出击更有力,又可通过大幅震荡使新基金等机构能在低位收集到廉价的筹码。与此同时,大盘进行二次探底之后,进一步确认3271点支撑的有效性,以统一市场做多的步伐。
      对于大盘的调整,投资者不必过于悲观,即使大盘今天再调整,与前期3271点时一样,两年线的支撑同样有效,目前两年线位于3286点,也就是说,今天大盘顺势考验3280点以后,与前期的3271点构筑一个小双底后再续升势。由于目前大盘走势诡异,对于普通投资者来说,采取"上涨不追、下跌不慌"的操作策略不失为比较好的方法。

  2. #2
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    Default

    这里还讨论a股啊 估计没有什么人看了

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