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Thread: 再谈如何达到持续盈利的境界兼论各货币近期走势

  1. #1
    Bullish Miali's Avatar
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    Default 再谈如何达到持续盈利的境界兼论各货币近期走势

    一、成功者的要素:交易心理和观念占50%,交易计划和资金管理(其中包括止损)30%,分析预测占20%。
    二、就这20%的分析预测方法而言,我的经验是基本面和政策决定趋势,市场对消息的反应验证趋势强弱,技术分析测量趋势并寻找买卖时机与点位。不同方法每个人有不同体会,我的排序如下(就效果和成功率而言):
    1.基本分析.
    2.市场心理(消息的影响与市场反应).
    3.相反理论、人气指标.
    4.道氏理论、支撑阻力位、跨市场分析。
    5.均线.
    6.趋势线.
    7.通道理论.
    8.黄金比例.
    9.波浪理论.
    10.周期理论.
    11.布林线.12.图形中的楔形.13.神奇数字周期.14.角度线.15.净头寸(股市成交量).16.未平仓合约分析.17、macd(中长线).18.缺口理论.19.中继形态中的旗型、三角形.20.反转形态中的头肩、双底(顶).21.乖离率.22.其它图形.23.威廉指标.24.k线(蜡烛,股市中分析作用大一些)。25.cci.26.kdj.27.roc.28.rsi.29.mtm.30.dmi.

    总的来说震荡类指标主要用于寻找交易时机,而不是预测趋势,论坛中舍本逐末的现象太严重。

    三、交易计划需要在充分掌握基本分析和技术分析之后做得比较完善。资金管理的要点是止损,亏得幅度有限,赚的幅度尽可能放大。如果没有入门,资本金应当够亏100次,如果达到亏盈差不多,资本金应当够亏20次。如果达到持续盈利的境界,资金管理是个性化的。


    四、介绍分析预测方法的书:
    基础:墨菲-期货市场技术分析
    中级:香港陈泳寰-股票期货图表分析真义
    高级:本塞诺-股票技术分析新思维
    均有中文版。

    五:各货币走势
    美元涨势继续,欧元、瑞郎已经突破长期上涨趋势线,日元、加元正在趋势线上,英镑和澳元尚未到达趋势线。这就是基本面决定的梯队,如果前赴后继,带动效应明显,则美元涨势持续。如果分化,则美元趋势有变化的可能。
    下周主角是欧元,法国对欧盟宪法公决意义重大,欧元在5.28之前压力大,应当继续跌。
    观察要点:欧元下跌过程中其它货币是否跟进,如不跟进则防止美元涨势告一段落。如果英镑、澳元等高息货币跟进,则美元涨势稳固。

  2. #2
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    Default

    他人意见不实行
    这里并非是提倡独断专行。须知道,当你已把握了市场的方向而有了基本的决定时,不要因旁人的影响而轻易改变决定。

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