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Thread: 兄弟们,美元将持续下滑

  1. #1
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    Default 兄弟们,美元将持续下滑

    由于投资者担忧美国经济可能陷入严重下滑,美联储本月降息50个基点的可能性显著上升,同时国际货币基金组织(IMF)的经济报告也打压美元走势,纽约市场周三美元兑一揽子货币大幅走低。

      而在欧洲央行周四召开利率会议之际,市场普遍预期该央行将进一步发出对抗通胀的强硬言论,从而提振了欧元走势。

      Ruesch International驻华盛顿外汇分析师Omer Esiner表示,在欧洲央行会议召开的前一天,市场似乎建立了一些欧元多头头寸。市场预期欧洲央行行长特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)将继续保持其担心欧元区通胀压力的强硬派言论。这将再次使欧元区的货币政策与美联储反其道而行。

      周二公布的美联储3月18日会议纪要显示,美国经济存在严重衰退的可能,并且衰退时间将延长。

      有分析师指出,美联储会议纪要暗示,美联储将于本月晚些时候继续降息至少25个基点,且降息50个基点的几率也明显上升。

      丰业资本(Scotia Capital)货币策略师Camilla Sutton表示:美联储会议纪要的温和言论,以及欧洲央行周四将采取强硬货币政策姿态的预期共同施压美元。市场普遍预期欧洲央行将维持利率不变,这将支持欧元的利差优势。

      周三早些时候,IMF公布世界经济前景预期显示,2008年美国经济可能将温和衰退,并拖累全球经济增长放缓。IMF声称,在该组织最近的报告中,美元被高估,美元疲软将削减美元资产的需求,这将进一步有损美元走势。

      ◎信贷危机远未结束

      利率期货市场显示,美联储在其4月29-30日会议上,降息50个基点的几率为44%。

      自2007年9月中旬以来,美联储已经下调联邦基金基准利率3个百分点至2.25%,大大削减了美元的收益。而与此同时,欧洲央行却始终维持利率4%不变。

      而有关美联储还在考虑进一步实施计划,解决流动性问题的消息,时刻提醒投资者,信贷危机还远未结束。

      FX Analytics驻康涅狄格的合伙人David Gilmore表示,美联储正在寻找如何能够在不加印钞票的前提下改善其资产负债表。因为美联储意识到,需要扩大其资产负债表以吸纳更多滞留资产。

      ◎关注周四欧洲两大央行利率会议

      经济学家普遍认为,由于通胀率处于历史高点,欧洲央行很有可能在周四的会议上决定维持现行利率4.0%不变,目前市场将更加关注欧洲央行行长特里谢在会议后的新闻发布会上的措辞。

      另外,市场普遍预期英国央行将降息25个基点至5%。

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    Default

    美元一滑害得我全部暴仓了

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    Default

    现在有所回升 还不知道持续多久

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