Oil output from OPEC-10 and the nine non-OPEC producers joined the “output-cut” deal increased to 34.43M bpd in April, up from 34.26M bpd a month ago. The total compliance level slipped -0.2 ppt to 111%. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cut of 1M bpd continued to contribute significantly to overall compliance. The compliance level would have dropped to 96%, the lowest since July 2020, without such reduction. Adding the three OPEC members exempted from output cut, total OPEC+ output expanded +0.21M bpd to 38.49M bpd. In particular, Iran continued to ramp up output. More oil is scheduled to enter the market from May onward, as the alliance has pledged to increase output. Less concern about deficit in the market could put a lid to oil price rally.

OPEC-10 produced 21.22M bpd in April, up +0.04M bpd from a month ago. This, however, remained below the quota of 22.12M bpd. The cartel achieved a compliance level of 120%, compared with 120.57% in March. The chart below shows that about half of the OPEC members in the deal produced more than their assigned quotas. This was, however, offset by higher-than-required output cuts by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Angola, etc. Saudi, the largest OPEC producer, produced 8.11M bpd in April, compared with its quota of 9.12M bpd. The Kingdom has planned to rewind it voluntary cut from May to July, bringing back to entire 1M bpd output to the market by August.

source_actionforex.com