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Thread: 关于"势"

  1. #1
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    Default 关于势

    关于势
    物换星移,春去秋来,这个世界不断地演绎着一个个的循环周期。时间可以改变一切,金融市场上的牛熊交替, 更是循环往复 有规可寻。

    让我们来一起重温著名的道氏理论。道氏理论认为:股市有三种趋势,同时并存,这三种趋势分别是:1. 主要趋势:长期的大牛市或大熊市,长期趋势可长达一年至数年不等,大牛市与大熊市交叠更替。2. 中期趋势:这是牛市的调整期或熊市的反弹期,少则三四个月,多达一年时间。(做逆市盘通常在此期间)3. 短线走势:几小时至两三星期,这些短线走势对长期主要趋势并无预测价值。

    接下来让我们来谈一谈势,势是金融市场中最重要的一个描述符,只有清楚是何势,才可以顺势而为。

    一般来说,一但某种趋势型成,它将延续两、三年甚至数年,不会轻易改变。有许多例子为证:美元兑日圆在1995年年中以前一路走熊,创下历史低点79.80以后转为牛势,连续涨升直至1998年8月创10年新高147.00,在这3年中,日圆沽家是大赢家;铜价95年创下3100美元/吨的高价后进入熊市,到1999年1月仅有1400美元,跌势惨烈。又如深沪股市,从1993年走熊直到1996年初新一轮牛市展开,1997年5月见顶后反复回落至1999年4月仍未有起色。通过上述例子,我们在判断市场走势时,不可以轻易下转势的结论,而宁可相信趋势仍然在运行中。

  2. #2
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    不会轻易改变

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    短线走势对长期主要趋势并无预测价值

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    势在就做不在就不做

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    短线走势不影响太多!

  6. #6
    Intraday Master Shang Liu Lu's Avatar
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    突发事件看不到“势”,次贷危机的“势”在哪?

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