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Thread: 万志鹏:非美货币逐渐展开调整

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    Default 万志鹏:非美货币逐渐展开调整

    环球财经:

      美国联邦住房企业办公室简称OFHEO周三宣布,将放宽对联邦政府支持企业房地美(Freddie Mac)与房利美(Fannie Mae)的资本金要求,为两大企业在住房抵押贷款市场施展拳脚提供更大的空间。将把对房利美和房贷美的额外资本储备要求从30%调降至20%,并考虑进一步调降。同时,OFHEO允许其可立即向抵押贷款市场注入最高达2,000亿美元的资金,并要求这两大企业通过发行优先股的方式在今年筹集更多的资金,从而为住房抵押贷款与相关证券提供额外融资。受房利美和房地美调整了资本金要求以支持信贷市场,该救市消息引发了美元的全线买盘。笔者认为,美元在近期出现的反弹行情是对前期超跌的修正,但修正幅度有多大,时间有多长我们仍需观察。而对于以欧元为首的非美货币,前期的上涨速度也的确是太快了。会休息的人才会工作这句话引入汇市也一点没错,现在我们调整一下,是位了将来走的更远~

    今日焦点:

      欧元/美元:纽约时段开于1.5741附近,随后汇价持续震荡下行,相继跌破了1.5700和1.5600整数支撑。周三欧洲央行管理委员会委员会诺亚和默施相继发表讲话。诺亚的讲话基本重申了该央行对抗通胀的强硬立场,默施则表示,欧元区经济可能受到美国经济放缓引发的连锁反应的冲击。后者的言论一定程度上令欧元承压。日线图显示,KDJ快速回撤,MACD也在高位形成死叉。后势有可能进一步向下寻求支撑。现汇价位于重要自1.4620形成的上升趋势线附近,一旦跌破,将见更大的回调。
    上方阻力:1.5645 1.5715

      下方支撑:1.5550 1.5470 1.5280


      英镑/美元:此前,英国央行的3月份的会议纪录显示,英国央行货币政策委员会员以7-2通过维持现行利率5.25%不变,媒体调查的比例为8:1。央行副行长吉弗加入了布兰奇福劳的支持降息阵营,这增强了英国央行未来的降息预期,令英镑承压.在英镑的四小时走势中,汇价已经明显跌破头肩顶的颈线位,今日有可能加速下滑或回抽颈线位再下跌。日线图上汇价以一根大隐柱刺破MA20后市看跌,建议投资者逢高做空英镑。


      上方阻力:1.9920 2.0000

      下方支撑:1.9720 1.9570

      澳元/美元:近期由于国际黄金价格的大跌打击以澳元纽元为首的商品货币,澳元在近日走出了双顶的形态,现汇价在其颈线位徘徊。但在日线上我们已经发现RSI出现了背离并延伸至中轨以下,MACD多头力量快速收缩。后势汇价继续下跌的可能较大,望投资者给予足够关注。



      上方阻力:0.9170 0.9240


      下方支撑:0.9070 0.9000



      美元/日元:今日商品价格大幅下跌,促使美元大幅反弹,但这种反弹的可持续性仍受到质。从小时图来看,现汇价在一个三角形整理中,后势有望突破。但笔者认为汇价向上只是对前期的修正,不会改变原有趋势。

      上方阻力:99.50 100.50



      下方支撑:98.40 97.60

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    找出每个市场中持续进场的主要趋势,而且顺着这个主控全局的趋势操作,要不然就多观察,不操作。

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