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Thread: 领先指数解读

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    Default 领先指数解读

    领先指数(Leading Indicator),也叫领先指标或先行指标,是预测未来经济发展情况的最重要的经济指标之一,是各种引导经济循环的经济变量的加权平均数。

    领先指数由众多要素构成,涉及国民经济的诸多方面,以美国的领先指数为例,主要包括下列要素:

    1 制造业平均每周工作量。
      2 平均周申请失业金人数。
      3 制造商新增消费品和原材料订单。
      4 卖主交割执行情况其工厂延迟交货的百分比。
      5 工厂和设备的合同、订单。
      6 新增私人投资的营建许可。
      7 M2货币供应量。
      8 标准普尔500股票指数及股息收益。
      9 密歇根消费者信心指数。
      10 生产成本与卖价间的差额。

    倘若这些要素有多数向好,则可提前预期领先指数将会上升。

    领先指数通常每月公布一次,各国公布时间不尽一致。假如领先指数连续三个月下降,则预示经济即将进入衰退期;若连续三个月上升,则表示经济即将繁荣或持续扩张。通常领先指标有6至9个月的领先时间,在美国,一般认为领先指标可以在经济衰退前11个月预测经济下滑,而在经济扩张前3个月可预测经济复苏。二战后,领先指数已经被成功的用来预测西方发达国家经济的荣枯拐点。

    通常来讲,外汇市场会对领先指数的剧烈波动做出强烈反应,领先指数的猛增将推动该国货币走强,领先指数的猛跌将促使该国货币走软。

    当前对外汇市场影响最大的当属美国的领先指数,由美国商务部公布,时间大体在每月的最后一个工作日。其他国家比如日本、瑞士、加拿大、德国等也会公布领先指数,德国的ZEW经济景气指数和IFO经济景气指数也包含一定领先指数的意味。

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    交易人必须认识到,交易的终 极目标是接受利润。除非他决定再试运气,否则他应当时刻记住他见好就收的明确界线。许多成功的交易人都十分 明白,钱易赚难保。

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    二线货币波幅较小,不象一线货币风高浪急,适合新手炒做。

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    经济的诸多方面

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