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Thread: 各种技术形态分析五

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    Default 各种技术形态分析五

    技术指标动力指标

       动力指标(MTM)是短线指标,是测量汇率涨降速度的技术工具。以分析汇率波动的速度为目的,研究汇率在波动过程中的各种加速、减速、惯性作用与汇率由动到静、由静到动的过程。

       动力指针的理论基础是价格和供需量的关系,计算是利用恒速的原理来判断测量涨降速度,得出高峰和低谷等不同信号,所以动力指针的计算是以当天的收盘价减去固定几天前的收盘价,求得动力指标值作为分析的依据。

      (1)动力指标值公式:

       MTM = C - Cn。

       C:当天的收盘价。

       Cn:N日前的收盘价。

       n设定的参数。

       动力指标平均值公式:MA(10)t = [10 X MA(10)(t-1) + M(10)t-M(10) (t-1)]/10。动力指针周期天数以820日比较好,一般选10日为周期的多,以上的公式是以10日为周期的。如果动力指针配合移动平均线一起使用更为理想。从动力值增减可考察到目前趋势是呈强还是呈弱,所以在运用时要注意目前动力值是处在基日线(即0点)之上还是之下。基日线就是指计算10日动力指针在11个交易日中牛皮,这时所得结果就是0。如当第12日价格上升,动力指针就开始脱离基日线,继续上升,离基日线越来越远,当到一定幅度后,指针一浪低一浪,表明上升动力正在减弱,直到动力值跌破基日线出现负值,说明市场正在积累下降的动力;如当第12日价格下降,动力指针就开始脱离基日线,继续下降,离基日线越来越远,当到一定幅度后,指针一浪高一浪,表明下降动力正在减弱,直到动力值跌破基日线出现正值,说明市场正在积累上升的动力。

       MTM的计算方法:MO = Ct/C(t-10)X100。计算出动力指标在100上下,画图即可以100为基准横轴,当动力值在100以上是多投的倾向、100以下为空投的倾向。用震荡点判断的方法与MTM公式相似。

      (2)运用的法则:

       (a)MTM由下向上破基日线时是买进信号;由上向下破基日线时是卖出的信号。

       (b)当由下向上破设定的10日移动平均值[MTM(10)t]时是买进信号;由上向下破[MTM(10)t]时是卖出的信号。

       (c)当汇率上涨创新高时MTM没有跟上,出现背离现象,注意反转下跌;如当汇率下降创新低时MTM没能配合下降,出现背离现象,注意逢低买进。

       (d)如汇率与MTM在低价位同步上升,将有短期反弹行情;如汇率与MTM在高价位同步下降时,将有回落的可能。

       动力指标也可以震荡点(oscillator)的方法计算,即以10日动力指标。

       10日动力指标值 = 当天收盘价 10天前收盘价 X 100。

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    Default

    动力指标(mtm) 太过敏感,运用时参数最好放大些。

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    Default

    动力指标(mtm)——是短线指标

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