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Thread: Strategi Spesifik - 18th March , 2008 : US Int Rate Decision

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    Strategi Spesifik - 18th March , 2008 : US Int Rate Decision

    Salam semua ,

    Bro's , this thread is to dissect the coming US Int Rate decision this coming 18th March , 2008 . Some background info as below .

    Fundamental News Event : The US Int Rate Decision
    Date : 18th March in US / 19th March in Malaysia ( Rabu pagi )
    Time : 2:15 am Malaysian time ( 18:15 GMT )
    Forecasts : 50 basis points cut or a 75 basis points cut .
    Comments : The higher the bp cut , the more pressure will be put
    onto the USD , prompting selling .

    Ok bro's , any feedback is appreciated . I will post a more detailed Trading Plan after this ....
    Last edited by asri; 03-16-2008 at 09:43 AM.
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    Trading Plan No 1

    Ok bro's ,

    I'll start the ball rolling with Trading Plan No 1 ...

    Event : USD Int Rate Decision
    Currency : EURUSD
    Date : 19th March ( Malaysian Date )
    Time : 2:15 am ( Malaysian Time - Rabu pagi )
    Type : Straddle Pending Orders ( Perangkap Atas/Bawah )
    TP : 30 pips
    SL : 15 pips
    Risk Reward Ratio : 2 to 1 (2:1)
    Lot : Depends. From 0.1 to 1.0 Lots .

    Methodology

    5 minutes from fundamental news time , place 2 Pending Orders ( one buy stop and one sell stop ) up dan down the current EURUSD price . The value permitted by Metatrader should be + and - 10 pips from the current price . Don't forget to set the TP and SL for both the pending orders as per the value above . When the news is announced , watch where the price go , up or down , and quickly close the other pending order . Eg : If the price go up and hit your buy stop , quickly delete/close your sell stop , and vice versa . This is very important.

    Personal Comments : This type of strategy does not care which way the price will go to as the up/down pending orders will trigger the buy/sell mechanics and will close automatically once your TP is hit . sm_cool

    Strategy Risk : The risk in this type of strategy is that the Fundamental News is not "market moving" type of news . I have experienced some news in which the volatility is not good enough in which my buy stop is triggered and before my TP is hit , the price reversed downwards , hitting my SL instead ...

    Anyways , you guys should decide whether this upcoming news is strong enough for this type of strategy . On a worst case scenario , we will lose 15 pips if it doesn't work out .

    The EURUSD volatility should have the strength to move at least 35 pips in order to hit our pending orders and travel 25 pips to hit our TP . Based on my experience , this type of news should be able to do that easily ...

    Anyways , its up to you guys .... more alternative strategy coming up ...

    Disclaimer : This Info is for educational purpose only . YOU and only you are responsible for your trading decision . Not me or this site / forum . Take charge of your own destiny and all the best in your trading .
    Last edited by asri; 03-16-2008 at 09:45 AM.
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    Thumbs up

    Mari2 smua! Kita meriahkan thread ni!

    Harap2 bukan stakat news yg akan dtg pada 18/3 nih shj.

    I'm sure, Bro Asri akan teruskan dgn news2 yg akan dtg & kita discuss brsama2.

    Tapi, skarang ialah untuk Selasa ni, jam 9:30pm. Masa pun dah hampir sangat dah nih!

    Bro Asri, bleh kasitahu camner nak "pasang jerat"? Pair mana yg terlibat?

    TKasih.
    niewbie kat sini. toothy9

    ...oops, blum post dah jwb. Ni dah kira bagus nih...

    Cuma soklan saya tu, pair2 yg trlibat, agak2 aper erk?
    Last edited by PedagangForex; 03-15-2008 at 09:39 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PedagangForex View Post
    Mari2 smua! Kita meriahkan thread ni!

    Harap2 bukan stakat news yg akan dtg pada 18/3 nih shj.

    I'm sure, Bro Asri akan teruskan dgn news2 yg akan dtg & kita discuss brsama2.

    Tapi, skarang ialah untuk Selasa ni, jam 9:30pm. Masa pun dah hampir sangat dah nih!

    Bro Asri, bleh kasitahu camner nak "pasang jerat"? Pair mana yg terlibat?
    lu .
    TKasih.
    niewbie kat sini. toothy9
    Salam Bro ,

    Tq for your feedback . Setakat ini saya hanya focus kpd EURUSD sahaja . Tapi untuk pair lain pun boleh belasah jugak . Tapi jika tak biasa trade news , saya cadangkan trade EURUSD dulu untuk dapatkan 'feel' dulu ...

    Anyways , saya rasa trade plan saya diatas tu agak selamat dan boleh dicuba oleh sesiapa pun , dgn risiko maksima akan loss 15 pips dan boleh dapat profit dalam 30 pips . Tapi untuk News ini aja tau , bukan news lain lain . Kena adjust trading plan ikut news apa yg hendak di trade .

    Peringatan : Jika tak biasa letak perangkap/jerat ( pending order : buy/sell stop ) atas / bawah , sila sila lah berlatih dulu . Ini adalah kerana waktu nak pasang jerat tu hanyalah 5 minit sahaja . Saya dulu pun terhegeh hegeh / kalut masa nak buat benda ni ... nyaris kantoi .... toothy9

    Ok bro , jika ada any issues sila beri feedback disini ...
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    Macro Econ - Int Rate Vs Currency Correlation

    Salam Bro ,

    Petang ni just nak share "hubungan" diantara Kadar faedah sesuatu negara dan kesan nya kpd matawang negara tersebut ...

    Secara umumnya , pelabur akan memilih untuk melabur pada matawang yang memberikan pulangan semaksimum mungkin . Oleh itu jika kadar faedah sesuatu matawang itu tinggi , maka pelabur akan "membeli" matawang tersebut dan jika kadar faedah matawang itu adalah rendah , maka pelabur akan "menjual" matawang berkenaan .

    Jadi , untuk 19hb March ini , jika Dr Ben Bernanke memilih untuk menurunkan kadar faedah USD , kesannya adalah para pelabur akan "menjual" USD secara besar besaran . Untuk Central Bank Negara Negara lain pula , mereka akan merasakan kerugian jika masih memegang USD sebagai "foreign reserves" kerana "value" untuk USD semakin berkurangan . Termasuklah Bank Negara kita kat Malaysia yg masih memegang USD sebagai foreign reserve negara .

    Untuk kita disini pula , ini bermakna , bermula market dibuka esok , position traders dan swing traders akan mula menjual USD dan membuat harga USD mulai jatuh sedikit sedikit sehingga Int Rate Decision 18hb March ini .

    So bagaimana nak membuat keuntungan dalam suasana yg sebegini ? toothy9 .... sepatutnya dah tahu kan ? JikA tidak , tunggu post / strategi saya yg seterusnya ...

    Selamat maju jaya !!

    Disclaimer : This Info is for educational purpose only . YOU and only you are responsible for your trading decision . Not me or this site / forum . Take charge of your own destiny and all the best in your trading .
    Last edited by asri; 03-16-2008 at 09:46 AM.
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    Default

    macam pernah kulihat nick ini...tp di mana ya?
    thanks sbb kongsi ilmu kat sini.
    ~~Forex Is My World~~
    babysm_cool sm_win

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    A 100 BP Cut !! ( maybe ) :)

    Salam Bros ,

    Latest from the Fed Fund Futures , there's a good possibility that Pakcik Ben Bernanke will go for a massive 100 BP Cut !! sm_happy . If this happens , it shows that The Feds are operating in a panic mode right now . Some news from dailyfxdotcom.

    A 75bp Fed Cut Seems Guaranteed, But What About The Dollar?

    The double dip has come and gone. The dollar has plunged to new lows against many of its major counterparts. However, wading into the action, the most significant moves came on the part of the risk-related, carry pairs: USDJPY and USDCHF. Marking another remarkable milestone for the currency market, USDCHF dropped below parity for the first time in history. For the yen pair, 100 seemed a strong floor that would require a higher power (like BoJ intervention) to produce a significant break or rebound before next weeks Fed rate decision. In the end, all that was needed was the same driver that ushered the pair to its 12-year low over the past two weeks risk sentiment. US policy makers made yet another concerted effort Friday to right the roiled credit markets. Just three days after announcing the new TSLF program, the Fed was prompted into action once again by the imminent collapse of one of worlds largest investment banks. Bear Stearns CEO Alan Schwartz said in a statement this morning that his firms liquidity position had significantly deteriorated from Thursday as investors made significant withdrawals on rumors the firm was facing a cash crisis. Playing out much like the Feds bailout of Long Term Capital Management back in 1998, Bear Stearns tapped the Federal Reserve of New York for temporary funding. And, since the broker does not have access to the discount window, the loan was actually made through JP Morgan on Bear Stearns behalf. This was certainly a necessary move as the collapse of a major investment firm like Bear Stearns in these fragile markets could trigger a global market crash. To further bolster confidence in the US markets, the Fed released a two sentence statement stating the bank stood ready to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system; and President Bush reiterated his confidence in the US economy in a speech in New York. And, while the liquidity injection and assuring words may calm credit market fears, they also practically guarantee a 75 basis point rate cut (or greater) when the FOMC announces its policy decision on Tuesday. Fed funds futures have fully priced in 75bp of easing and set a 60 percent probability of a 100bp cut. If the Fed does lower rates to 2.00 percent, it will only be a mater of time before the market begins to realize the policy group is running out of options to salvage the economy and markets. Whats more, this attempt at securing the stability of financial stability has left the ak tdollar out to dry. This has been the basis behind speculation that global central banks will collaborate for the first time in 13 years to rescue the dollar. The timing of such an effort will be critical.

    Whatever . . Yg penting bagi kita , the level of volatility pada pagi rabu ni ( 02:15 pagi - 19hb Mac ) . Lagi kelam kelibut , lagi bercelaru , lagi panic = Lagi Bagus , lagi senang kita nak buat duit nanti .

    Ok , more to come . Salam hormat ...
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    Quote Originally Posted by newbie_fx View Post
    macam pernah kulihat nick ini...tp di mana ya?
    thanks sbb kongsi ilmu kat sini.
    Heh heh ... takdelah Bro . Mungkin hang nampak aku masa tengah minum air jagung kat Masjid Jamek lepas sembahyang jumaat kot ....

    All the best in your trading !!
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    Get free ground breaking Fundamental News releases ,
    Arm yourself with up to date Key Levels for selected
    currency pairs , join my community by emailing me at
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    Default

    Wah topik ni lebih banyak news la.. mari.mari..mar..
    http://
    http://
    http://

    sm_win MISI JUTAWAN sm_win

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    Bro Asri,
    Tanya sket. Kat forum lain ada yg kata Bernake tu wat speech mlm ni. Smalam bro kata, sok, 18/3 9:30pm (Msia). Ari ni plak bro kata, Rabu 19/3.
    Yg mana satu btul erk? Bleh tolong kasitau dak?

    Sorry, niebie nyer soklan, biasala... :o Mekasih!

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    Quote Originally Posted by PedagangForex View Post
    Bro Asri,
    Tanya sket. Kat forum lain ada yg kata Bernake tu wat speech mlm ni. Smalam bro kata, sok, 18/3 9:30pm (Msia). Ari ni plak bro kata, Rabu 19/3.
    Yg mana satu btul erk? Bleh tolong kasitau dak?

    Sorry, niebie nyer soklan, biasala... :o Mekasih!
    Salam bro ,

    Saya yang salah beri maklumat yg mula mula tu . Memang 18hb , tapi 18hb March di US . Untuk masa kita , 19hb Mac , pagi Rabu , pukul 2:15 pagi . Ni pening conversion GMT la ni .

    So , bro , kena berjaga skit kot pagi Rabu ? Meh kita lihat "rollercoaster" USD dipertontonkan kpd dunia ....

    All the best in your trading ...
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    Arm yourself with up to date Key Levels for selected
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    News Strategy No 2 - Position Trading !!

    Salam para pelabur matawang semua ,

    Untuk fundamental news release kali ni , strategi lain yang kita boleh gunakan adalah mengambil "position" lebih awal , mungkin beberapa jam atau beberapa hari sebelum news sebenar diumumkan .

    Jika anda semua lihat pada pagi ini ( 17hb Mac ) , EURUSD mengalami peningkatan yang mendadak apabila market dibuka selepas subuh pagi tadi . Peningkatan lebih kurang 230 pips telah dicatitkan sebelum keuntungan mula diambil dan graf mula menurun . Sehingga malam ni , harga telah meyusut semula lebih kurang 150 pips kebawah .

    Untuk mempraktikkan strategi positioning ini ( tidak kira pair USD crosses mana yg diminati ) kenalah fasih dulu segala Pivot , Support dan Resistance points yang ada termasuk figure weekly dan monthly . Dari segi Fibonacci Retracement juga harus diukur untuk mendapatkan level level mana yg boleh dijadikan support dan resistance level juga .

    Cara ini agak rumit , tetapi , seorang position trader yg mahir mampu menghasilkan beratus beratus pips untuk fundamental news event yang seperti ini . Berbanding dgn strategi yg pertama dimana TP hanyalah setakat puluhan pips sahaja .

    Ok bros , to all the position traders all the best .... toothy9

    Disclaimer :
    This Info is for educational purpose only . YOU and only you are responsible for your trading decision . Not me or this site / forum . Take charge of your own destiny and all the best in your trading .
    Last edited by asri; 03-17-2008 at 04:04 PM.
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    News Strategy No 3 - Trend Follower !!

    Salam Bros semua ,

    Oleh kerana News ini semakin dekat , saya postkan sekali strategi ke 3 untuk fundamental news release pada kali ini . Strategi ini dipanggil " Trend follower "

    Ok , caranya begini . Contoh EURUSD . Buka CS Graph , TF 5 minit . Sediakan plan berapa lot yang akan dilaburkan dan tunggu sehingga news diumumkan.

    Selepas news diumumkan , pertunjukan akan bermula . Harga EURUSD akan bergerak dgn lajunya samada mencanak keatas atau kebawah . Kita relax aje . Kita tunggu CS 5 minit itu selesai .

    Jika CS 5 minit menaik , masuk market dgn position long , siap dgn TP dan SL yg sesuai .

    Jika CS 5 minit menurun , masuk market dgn position short , siap dgn TP dan SL yg sesuai .

    TP dan SL akan bergantung kpd pair yg dipilih . Didalam contoh EURUSD (pergerakan harian pair ini dalam 110 - 120 pips) TP 20% dari jumlah ini adalah satu angka yg selamat pada pandagan saya . Untuk pair lain , kena fasih pergerakan average pair tersebut sehari berapa pips dan ambil jumlah 20% dari angka itu .

    Walaubagaimanapun , semua ini adalah teori dan saranan saya sahaja . Sila buat keputusan berdasarkan MM dan Risk Tolerance masing masing ...

    All the best !!

    Disclaimer : This Info is for educational purpose only . YOU and only you are responsible for your trading decision . Not me or this site / forum . Take charge of your own destiny and all the best in your trading .
    Get free Point & Figure Chart Analytics ,
    Get free ground breaking Fundamental News releases ,
    Arm yourself with up to date Key Levels for selected
    currency pairs , join my community by emailing me at
    stratafx[at]gmail.com !!

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    Talking

    Wokay! Thanks Bro, for the very valuable info!

    Mari mari mari... kita tengok siapa yg kena.... sm_happy

    Hrp2 leh cover sket yg loss dulu2 tu! sm_win

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    Quote Originally Posted by PedagangForex View Post
    Wokay! Thanks Bro, for the very valuable info!

    Mari mari mari... kita tengok siapa yg kena.... sm_happy

    Hrp2 leh cover sket yg loss dulu2 tu! sm_win
    Salam Bro ,

    No prob . Tinggal lagi dua jam lebih kurang sebelum news . Kpd yg telah memberi feedback secara posting / email / sms , saya ucapkan terimakasih .

    Summary penutup seperti dibawah .

    1 - Pre News Strategy - Ambil position beberapa hari / jam sebelum news . High risk , tetapi kalau mengena , very high return .

    2 - During News Strategy - pasang perangkap pending order atas bawah .

    3 - Post News Strategy - ikut saja trend setelah Candle 5 min close . Lepas tu baru masuk position mengikut arah candle .


    Ok bro semua , selepas ni thread ni akan ditutup . All the best dan semoga maju jaya .... pips hijau untuk semua !!
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