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Thread: 浅谈基本分析和技术分析的结合

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    Default 浅谈基本分析和技术分析的结合

    好多投资人士对基本分析和技术分析的关系有不准确的理解。其实,在汇市也好,股市也好,为了看到市场的真面目两种分析都缺少不了。

      所谓在汇市的基本分析就是想知道目标货币的供求关系的过程。货币跟商品一样,供过于求,就跌;供不应求,就涨。既然关系如此简单,我们要研究的是:第一,供应关系,第二,需求关系,其他问题根本用不着理。供应关系不难知道,只要看美联储的网站,每个月都报告出来。假设对美元的需求不变的情况下,美联储开始增加货币供应则导致两个市场的反应:股票会升,美元会软。货币供应减少,则美元回稳,或升。时间上大概有两个月的差异,即是说,市场的反应比货币供应变化慢两个月。所以每个月研究货币供应量是金融市场内行第一件要做的事。

      知道了货币供应的情况以后,下一步就是要研究需求关系。这比较麻烦,因为要研究好多问题。一国货币的需求量是该货币的吸引力决定的,而该货币的吸引力要看:第一,增值的潜力,第二,实际利率的方向。为了看清货币的前景,先要看该货币资产的前景。资产的增值潜力要看该国的股票市场,地产市场,债券市场的前景。即是说,经济前景好的话,有增值的潜力,实际利率升高的潜力,就是需求增加,那么该国的货币就有潜质上扬。还要看经济的前景,先看就业/失业情况,国民生产率,政局稳定情况,国际贸易,利率的周期,外资的流入情况,国内的资本运作等等。

       了解了货币的供求的关系以后,会对中长期的大方向有个感觉。这就是所谓的基本分析的基本功非常必要。

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    汇市的基本分析就是想知道目标货币的供求关系的过程

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    汇市的基本分析就是想知道目标货币的供求关系的过程

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    基本分析和技术分析结合 ,两种分析都缺少不了

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    基本分析和技术分析就像是人的两只手,缺一不可

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