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Thread: 基本面分析:货币供应、通胀和利率

  1. #1
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    Default 基本面分析:货币供应、通胀和利率

    以货币理论获诺贝尔奖的哈耶克认为,通胀单单指的是货币过度增长所引发物价上涨,而不是物价上涨即可称为通胀。但现实生活中,人们约定俗成地混用,比如人们常说的成本推动型通胀等。

    从哈耶克原理看美国情况或许更加清楚:无论是美国薪资上升,还是高油价,都只是表面上抬高物价,但实际上并不是这么回事。美国狂印钞票才是通胀根源。

    美国通过对外和对内赤字实施经济刺激,由于美国比任何国家都容易获得美元,因此实施起扩张政策时得心应手。美国增印钞票,用以购买他国产品(相当于购买劳务和原料),但这些付出去的钞票要么在体外循环,要么又借到美国。

    这两种情况都始终不要求美国归还这种劳务和原料,这就好比邮局印邮票,而购买者放弃了要求邮局寄信服务一样。对邮局而言,最好人人集邮,并子孙相传。

    从某种程度上讲,在这种邮局机制下,美国赤字越大越划算,对别国掠夺也越多。虽然这会造成全球性通胀,会形成价格信号混乱和资源配置错误,但在利益趋动下,美国政府也很难积极地、动真格地降低政府支出。

    在美国政府和人民均大手大脚消费下,美元流向全世界,刺激了制造业国家订单大增,最终冲击了油价及其它原材料资源。因此,油价高涨只是表面上的通胀来源,但背后却是哈耶克所指的货币滥增。

    美国在印钞方面获得好处也并非没有前提,如果恶意地、明显地胡乱印钞,大伙忍无可忍后便可能一拍两散,国际贸易中便会拒收美元,也不会再购买美债。因此,法律上独立的美联储责任便是维持这种信誉。

    在国会利益趋动和美联储信誉维持这对矛盾体综合作用下,便出现目前这种状态美国在各方容忍下限内增发货币,既能尽量地掠夺,又留有余地,以便这种掠夺能天长地久。

    综上所述,人们虽然有必要盯住包括伯南克在内的美国官员言论,但人们似乎不能仅仅盯住这些五花八门和常常前后矛盾的口号,否则极可能摸不着北。

    笔者以为,在这种掠夺机制下,货币供应增长(或称通胀)应是常态,虽然不排除有时会有所收敛(尤其是接近充分就业时)。另外,一旦美国通胀形势稍有好转,在利益趋动下,通胀仍将顽强地复发。这些认识,从中长线来看,或许对揣摸美国利率走向有一定作用。

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