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Thread: Dollar's tumble rattles global markets

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    Default Dollar's tumble rattles global markets

    The dollar tumbled to its lowest in 12 years against the Japanese yen and was weaker against a string of currencies as fears for the health of the US economy deepened. The currency has been sliding all year as the slump in America's housing market and the subsequent crisis in financial markets shows no sign of easing. Today's weakness, particularly marked against the yen, was triggered in part by the news that the assets of a large credit fund owned by private equity giant Carlyle Group will be seized by creditors. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's fear of a full-blown economic crisis - made clear this week by his pledge to throw $200bn at commercial banks - has sent many investors fleeing dollar-based assets. With US interest rates already down 2.25 percentage points this year, and expected to be cut further, the currency is holding little attraction for international investors.

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    Default The Yen Marches On

    In recent periods of Dollar Weakness, all of the major currencies have been quick to capitalize- all but the Japanese Yen. After a while, it became clear that the Yen was being held down by carry traders, who sold Yen in favor of higher-yielding, more risky currencies. It was long believed that the only thing that would shake the Yen loose from its moorings was not a Japanese interest rate hike or economic growth, but volatility in capital and forex markets. Sure enough, the explosion of the credit crisis induced a rapid appreciation in the Yen. Yesterday, it crashed through the psychological milestone of 100 for the first time since 1995.
    To Be Continued....

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    Default The Yen Marches On; Contd...

    But can the Yen sustain this momentum? On paper, if the Dollar continues to fall, it seems the answer is 'Yes.' However, Japan's economy is extremely dependent on exports. In fact, 50% of its 2007 GDP growth can be attributed to exports. With the Dollar crashing, Japan's exports are becoming less competitive, and its exports to the US (estimated at $150 Billion) are in jeopardy. In addition, Japanese consumers are notoriously tight-fisted, so it's unclear who would pick up the slack if the export sector falters. This begs another question: will the Bank of Japan be forced to intervene in currency markets (like it did in 1995) in order to prevent its economy from dipping into recession? The Wall Street Journal reports:

    Its big budget deficit makes a stimulus package more difficult. Intervention -- which Tokyo also tried in 2004 during a bout of yen strength -- would fly in the face of efforts by the U.S. and other nations to let markets decide currency values.

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    Default Usd/jpy (Intraday)

    Usd/jpy, the indicator in the bearish configuration. The price should find resistances at 100.00 and 100.50. The supports should be at 98.80 and 97.60

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    Default

    yen is on a range ,but i guess 95.00 is main support ....for now it can go beyond that level.....

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    Default Usd/jpy (Intraday, Asian session)

    Usd/jpy is in a downtrend supported by 4h EMA and in a bearish configuration. Tha resistances should be at 99.65 and 100. The supports should be at 97.75 and 96.10

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    Default Usd/jpy (Intraday)

    Usd/jpy is in a downtrend supported by 4h EMA and in a bearish configuration. Tha resistances should be at 100 and 101. The supports should be at 98.65 and 97.75

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    Default Usd/jpy (Intraday, american session)

    Usd/jpy is in a trend between 97.75 and 100.15. It moves without trend. The indicators appears to be bearish configuration. The price should be at 100.15 and 101.30. The supports should be at 98.70 and 97.75

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    Default Gbp/usd (Intraday, American session)

    Gbp/usd is in a downtrend. The indicator is in bearish configuration. The resistances should be 1.9850 and 1.9930. The supports should be 1.9750 and 1.9700. If the support is broken then the target will be 1.6000.

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    Default Usd/jpy (Intraday)

    Usd/jpy is in a downtrend directed by 4H exponential moving averages with low volatility. Trend Indicator is in a bearish configuration. The price should find resistances at 100.00 and 101.10. The supports should be at 99.00 and 98.50

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    Default

    i just beleive that the dollar will surely regain its strenght against the yen..... soon usd/yen will go back to 111's

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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by fxgirl View Post
    i just beleive that the dollar will surely regain its strenght against the yen..... soon usd/yen will go back to 111's

    we will have to see the movt next week before decising this one out
    it may take a long time for this too

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    Default

    yeah it may take a long time ,but its in this year,...

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    Default News

    Yen
    The financial market crisis was also a determining factor for the yen exchange rate in the past few weeks. Versus the USD, the 100 yen mark was broken through, an event last seen 13 years ago. Versus the euro, the development was less dramatic, but even here the yen managed to advance. The growing insecurity on the financial markets is particularly supportive of the yen, because this is also reason why riskier positions financed in yen are being closed out. Over the short term, nothing much will change, but in the medium term, we believe that there will be further gains by the Japanese currency mostly vs. the euro.

    It remains to be seen how far the weakening of the US economy will affect the Japanese economy, overall though, we perceive good chances that any impact would only be a temporary slowdown.

    What is your opinion about the yen?

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    Default

    the tumbling of dollar to its lowest against the euro and yen will continue i think this week,the green back recovered only on the commodity currencies thats the aussie and the kiwi after the intrest rate cut by the fed.
    so i think dollar will be bearish into the mid year.....
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