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Thread: 再谈趋势、碎形,附看盘试验

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    Default 再谈趋势、碎形,附看盘试验

    看盘是为了找出方向,须由各方面入手寻找蛛丝马迹,我尽一切努力想要发现其中隐藏的规律。
    特别说明:我本是个k线的门外汉,现在稍有些感觉,以下对于回调深度的讨论仅起抛砖引玉作用,并不保证正确,但求提供一种思路。
    对于后面的看盘试验,也是为说明一种思路,只以历史数据来分析的话难免有事后诸葛的意思,所有走势都看到了就会对判断有所影响,说起来条条是道,但不一定就是正确的,因此所有方法与理论必须经过实践的验证,而且能够实时判断行情发展是一项必要本领,看盘试验主要是为自我锻练。

    第一部分:对于趋势、碎形及回调深度的研究。
    (取镑日的5分钟图做示例,是因为这一段走势非常典型,对于盘整走势,这种分析方法要打个折扣,当然盘整市也可以作为回调特深、趋势特弱之特例)
    对于趋势,必产生碎形。对于碎形,必有回调处,回调到何处可以利用黄金分割法来判断,回调到61.8处就掉头,说明原趋势强,回调到50处掉头,说明趋势中等,回调到38.2再调头,说明趋势已弱,通过此也可预估碎形是否成功。时时注意回调深度,以38.2位作为最坏之打算。回调深度最大的作用在于指示下一个碎形的成功概率:趋势强则成功概率大,趋势弱则成功概率小。

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    第二部分:看盘试验。
    这个是2007-11-12(本日)的英镑5分钟图实时看盘试验,因为暂未形成本日趋势,因此碎形无从研究,只通过高低点简单判断。
    Attachment 1984

    在我记录文档并发表帖子的同时,行情在发展中,可以即时验证一下看盘试验的结果,表明这种判断方法还是有一定可取之处的。
    (当然我在写此文档时未看行情,以避免真实的走势对我的判断产生影响)

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    看盘试验主要是为自我锻练

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