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Thread: 做市场趋势的追随者

  1. #1
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    Default 做市场趋势的追随者

    随波逐流在外汇交易中是一种非常高的境界,在承认市场有效性的前提下,要尽量紧跟市场的步伐。市场的定价方式有三种,首先是权利定价,如税率、商品保护价等。另外就是供求定价,供大于求,价格下跌;供不应求,价格上涨。还有资本定价,如市场被操纵、价格变形等。对于随波逐流的交易来说,我们所指的是后两种定价模式,而最主要的就是供求定价模式。
    市场趋势是具有相对稳定性和可预测性的。虽然不同的投资者因为交易风格、资金规模和风险承受能力不同而采取不同的逐利方式,但不管怎么说,有一个原则是共同的,即坚持客观性交易,而非预测性交易。预测性交易者认为,交易机会和利润是预测出来的。客观性交易者则认为,交易机会和利润是寻找和等待出来的。当然,只有后者才能做到随波逐流,因为交易机会是等待出来的,而非创造出来的。
    在坚持客观性交易原则的前提下,我们还应有个性化的选择,才能做到随波逐流。因为波有不同的幅度,流也有不同的规模。我们需要在充分认清自身的情况下,去有选择地随波逐流。市场的不确定性始终存在,虽然亏损不可避免,但可以控制。所以,我们不要做不自量力的交易,不要被获利的欲望冲昏头脑。
    供求关系形成的趋势具有一定的稳定性,不会因为价格的暂时无序波动而紊乱。翻开历史图表,任何一波趋势都具有一定的幅度和相当长的延续时间。经验表明,使用均线和趋势线来追逐趋势效果较好。在趋势之中,只要价格不触及重要均线或趋势线就可以持仓等待,而不必太在乎小的波动。而在大幅震荡之中,k线形态是很好的判断工具。对于技术参数,每个人都可以参照自己的交易习惯来把握,而新手则最好参考老手的经验参数值。
    一波趋势结束而新的趋势又还未形成之时,也就是随波逐流者开始付出代价之时。因为此时没有趋势可言,波动往往又处于混乱和无序的状态。此时市场观点凌乱,供求关系处于真空状态,资本定价的特征得到充分显现。在市场被资本所控制时,随波逐流会遇到困难,任何轻举妄动都可能招致损失,而此时轻仓等待市场确立方向是比较好的选择。从某种程度上讲,交易的本质就是管理风险,而不是执着于获取利润。

  2. #2
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    Default

    市场趋势是具有相对稳定性和可预测性的

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