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Thread: 2008/03/05外汇技术分析

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    Default 2008/03/05外汇技术分析

    预计美国非制造业状况在2月将有小幅改善,这一部门约占美国经济的70%,包括零售业,服务业和金融业。供应与管理协会非制造业指数预计自44.6升至47.5。不过,如果该指数如预期低于50的话,也不会是什厶利好,只是美国经济陷入衰退的又一佐证而已。实际上,联储已经在1月会议纪要中承认消费增长出现恶化。近期数据显示消费者支出大幅下滑,部分反映了房地产市场的疲弱,另外能源价格高企导致的可支配收入增长放缓也损害了消费支出。并且,未来支出可能受到消费信贷紧缩的影响,有迹象表明基于消费信贷业绩不佳以及收入增长放缓的广泛预期,借贷商已越来越谨慎。由于美国数据显示经济出现衰退,金融市场仍处于混乱中,期货市场已预期3月18日减息75点的几率为78%,而在上周这一几率还为0,而减息25点或50点已是铁板钉钉的事情。市场紧密关注将于今日公布的ism报告,令人失望的数据将极大支持减息75点的预期。

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    欧元/美元:继续持有多仓
    多仓仍在场,止损位1.5142下方。汇价一旦突破当前的盘整区间,则预期出现较大的走势。日图指标极度超买,但是并未发挥其效果,这在强劲趋势中并不少见。若汇价突破走低,我们将反手做空。(在1.5242做多,止损1.5135,目标1.5500)

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    美元/日元:建议在103.70做空
    汇价在102.60可能形成双底,令空头担忧。计划破败103.70/90阻力做空,若破,则反手做多。若破102.60,我们将做空,以期测试关键历史支持101.25/70区域。

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    澳元/美元:0.9250做空,目标0.8925,止损0.9445
    汇价跌破0.9265后我们做空,日图指标给出新的做空信号,周一收盘于上周五上行关键轴点下方,周二跌破1月22日低点开始的上升趋势线,进一步支持看空情绪。(0.9250做空,目标0.8925,止损0.9445)

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    欧元/英镑:初步阻力预计很快失守
    自录得0.7678的历史高点以来,汇价继续修正。我们在0.7571所做多单继续持有,目标指向0.7720,日图动量指标看涨,日图低/高点连续走高,上升三角形形态支持看涨,有望很快突破0.7678。(0.7571做多,目标0.7880,止损0.7633)

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    美元/加元:关键支持推动反弹
    未能有效跌破前关键低点0.9760令汇价再次倾向上行,未来几日有望再次指向1.0380。10日均线0.9940被突破,进一步上行目标是0.9985-1.0130。

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    澳元/纽元:倾向深度回调
    未能守稳于1.1730上方,周一汇价形成“十字星”,现汇价回撤。在出现新的升势之前,倾向汇价进一步回落。

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    美元/瑞郎:建议在1.0485做空
    尽管动能指标超卖,但是整体的前景仍看跌,这在趋势强劲的走势中非常正常。小时图支持位于1.0335,再次被测试,不过该位抑制了跌势。日图极度超卖,但是并未出现反转信号。我们倾向待汇价上行破败或者跌破1.0310后做空。

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    纽元/美元:空头下调止损
    周一建立的空头仍在场,汇价现可能在0.8210筑顶,不过只有等待汇价跌破0.7925才能确定上述观点。(0.8050做空,目标0.7925,止损0.8090)

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    欧元/瑞郎:建议在1.5860做空
    小时图指标超卖,抑制跌势,但汇价迄今继续缓慢跌落,弱支持在1.5735,接着是趋势低点1.5700。计划逢高卖出,但是将破败位置调整至1.5860,当前的小时图趋势阻力位于1.5895附近。

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