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Thread: 预计本周波动加大

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    Default 预计本周波动加大

    预计本周波动加大


    在联储有进一步大幅减息的计划影响下,美元持续下跌。周一欧元兑美元再度上扬,达到1.5275,刷新历史高点。美元兑日元继续上周跌势,一度探及三年多低点102.62。预计日元将进一步上扬,目标指向1995年达到过100大关。英镑兑美元也有一定幅度上扬,日内高点为1.9935,但是涨幅不及欧元,这主要是因为市场对于英国央行本周四是否一定会维持利率不变而非减息尚有小小争议。如果英国央行如普遍预计维持利率不变,将推动英镑兑美元再次冲破2 这个关口。

    周一公布的美国数据并未对汇市造成影响。美国2月份制造业ism指数由50.7降至48.3,低于50的度数显示制造业出于萎缩阶段。美国建筑支出于1月份减少2.2%,低于预期-0.7%和前值-1.1%。

    昨天加拿大公布的gdp报告不如预期,令人担心加拿大经济发展也陷入和美国一样的萎缩期,拖累加元走势。第四季度gdp增长仅0.8%,远不及预期1.1% 和前值2.9%。十二月份gdp下降0.7%,差于预期-0.2%和前值0.1%。数据公布后,美元兑加元由0.9830左右即时上扬,突破0.99水平。我们将关注明天加拿大央行的利率决定,预计将跟随美联储减息50个基点,将利率降至3.5%。

    周二将公布瑞士重要通胀指标2月份消费者物价指数(cpi)和第四季度国内生产总值(gdp),欧元区将公布第四季度gdp和通胀指标1月份生产者物价指数(ppi) 。

    本周将有多个央行宣布利率决定,预计周二加拿大央行减息,周四英国央行和欧央行可能维持利率分别在5.25%和4.0%不变。

    欧元兑美元阻力始于1.52,之后是1.5250和1.5280,更强阻力见于1.53和1.5350。支撑始于1.5150,之后是1.5120和1.51,更强支撑位于1.5070和1.5050。

    美元兑日元阻力始于103.30,之后是103.60和104,更强阻力位于104.30和104.50。支撑始于103,之后是102.80和102.50,更强支撑见于102.80和102.50。

    英镑兑美元阻力始1.99,之后是1.9920和1.9950,更强阻力位于2和2.05。支撑始于1.9850,之后是1.9820和1.98,更强支撑见于1.9780和1.9750。

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    Default

    量价关系可以综合起来考虑

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    Default

    减息尚有小小争议

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