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Thread: Technical Analysis

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    Default Technical Analysis

    Hello People,
    Who knows how the market (USD, JPY and EUR) movement going to be next week?

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    Default dollar going to be strong after nf

    i guess dollar is gooing to regain some losses this wee3dblob k after nonfarm payroll.

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    Quote Originally Posted by richtrader View Post
    i guess dollar is gooing to regain some losses this wee3dblob k after nonfarm payroll.

    Thank you very much friend, I have also done a geat deal of job this week, that is lot of questions, research etc concerning the market movements and I think I have understood one or two things. Thanks

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    Default "Expectations"

    Market commentry and 'expectations' for today

    Euro/dollar

    Euro/dollar reversed the expected losses and climbed to a new high for the uptrend. Hold small long positions if you have them.

    Initial resistance is at 1.5300. Above this pivot high, resistance comes at 1.5355 and 1.5380. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.5575.

    Immediate support is now seen at 1.5215. The next level is 1.5160. Below 1.5105, there is further support at 1.5040.

    Oscillators are rising.

    NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
    MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
    LONG-TERM: Bullish


    Dollar/yen

    Dollar/yen broke out from an inside range, as it reversed this weeks losses. Mixed trading is likely today and the short-term bias remains up.

    Immediate resistance is seen at 104.20. Strong resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot that targets 104.00 and 105.00.

    Support is now seen at 103.50. Below 103.15, distant support is at 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.

    Oscillators are mixed.

    NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
    MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
    LONG-TERM: Bearish


    Sterling/dollar

    Sterling/dollar reversed early losses in an aggressive manner and tested the top of its medium-term trading range. The strength will be confirmed only by a break above 2.0000.

    So, initial resistance comes at 1.9971. A break above this pivotal level would signal another further rally above the 2 mark. This is followed by 2.0040.

    Immediate support is seen at 1.9865. Below 1.9765, the next level follows at 1.9645.

    Oscillators are rising.

    NEAR-TERM: Mixed
    MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
    LONG-TERM: Mixed


    Dollar/Swiss franc

    Dollar/Swiss remains soft after remaining stuck in an inside range on Tuesday. Mixed trading is likely today.

    Immediate support is still seen at 1.0335. Below 1.0290, support is now pegged at 1.0170.

    Initial resistance remains at 1.0455. The next level is 1.0500. Above 1.0610, resistance comes at 1.0725.

    Oscillators are declining.

    NEAR-TERM: Mixed
    MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
    LONG-TERM: Bearish

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    Thumbs up

    i really agree with your analyses my brother....

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    Thumbs up well from my research my analyses of usd/gpy is as folows

    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.46; (P) 103.82; (R1) 104.36; More.

    USD/JPY's rebound from 102.61 extends further to 104.17 before retreating mildly. At this point, further rally could still be seen but still, upside of the current correction is expected to be limited by 104.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 108.59 to 102.61 at 104.89) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 103.26 will argue that the correction from 102.61 might have completed. Retest of 102.61 and 61.8% projection of 114.77 to 104.96 from 108.58 at 102.51 should be seen. Break will confirm recent decline has resumed for key medium term support level at 101.22/65.

    In the bigger picture, downtrend from 124.13 is still in progress, towards key medium term support zone of 101.22/65 level. However, since the structure of the fall from 124.13 is not clearly impulsive yet, the fall from 124.13 might only be part of a wide range consolidation pattern and 101.22/65 key support might hold. Much attention will be paid there on sign of reversal as USD/JPY approaches this key support zone. Strong rebound, followed by break of 108.59 resistance, will indicate that whole decline from 124.13 has made a medium term low already. Much stronger rebound should then be seen in such case.

    Though, sustained trading below this support zone and 100 psychological support will indicate that multi-year consolidation pattern has completed and deeper medium term down trend should then be seen to next psychological support at 90.

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    Quote Originally Posted by richtrader View Post
    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.46; (P) 103.82; (R1) 104.36; More.

    USD/JPY's rebound from 102.61 extends further to 104.17 before retreating mildly. At this point, further rally could still be seen but still, upside of the current correction is expected to be limited by 104.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 108.59 to 102.61 at 104.89) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 103.26 will argue that the correction from 102.61 might have completed. Retest of 102.61 and 61.8% projection of 114.77 to 104.96 from 108.58 at 102.51 should be seen. Break will confirm recent decline has resumed for key medium term support level at 101.22/65.

    In the bigger picture, downtrend from 124.13 is still in progress, towards key medium term support zone of 101.22/65 level. However, since the structure of the fall from 124.13 is not clearly impulsive yet, the fall from 124.13 might only be part of a wide range consolidation pattern and 101.22/65 key support might hold. Much attention will be paid there on sign of reversal as USD/JPY approaches this key support zone. Strong rebound, followed by break of 108.59 resistance, will indicate that whole decline from 124.13 has made a medium term low already. Much stronger rebound should then be seen in such case.

    Though, sustained trading below this support zone and 100 psychological support will indicate that multi-year consolidation pattern has completed and deeper medium term down trend should then be seen to next psychological support at 90.
    Thank you brother, I guess I can get something out of this. Let's watch out for tomorrow.

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    Default

    i advice newbies to stay away from trading the n/f tomorrow.its very riskybaby

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    Quote Originally Posted by richtrader View Post
    i advice newbies to stay away from trading the n/f tomorrow.its very riskybaby
    Thank you very much. I do follow the news from time to time.
    Thanks

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    Default Non- Farm Payrolls

    The dollar ended lower yesterday as well, as expected. German data was weak, but this did not stop the euro from rallying to a new record high. The surge was helped by EC Bank President Trichet, who said the bank remains focused on keeping inflation in check good-bye to dreams of a talk down of the euro! Again, the short and medium-term outlooks remain bearish. Of course, Today will see the release of the non-farm payrolls data, so take your cues from it; the bias is for a bad number.

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    Default "Expectations"

    Market Commentry and "Expectations" For Today

    Euro/Dollar
    Euro/dollar climbed to yet a new high for its stubborn uptrend. Hold small long positions if you have them.

    Initial resistance is at 1.5383. Above 1.5430, resistance comes at 1.5355 and 1.5500. Distant resistance is seen at 1.5575.

    Immediate support is now seen at 1.5300. The next level is 1.5260. Below 1.5145, further support comes at 1.5075.

    Oscillators are rising.
    NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
    MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
    LONG-TERM: Bullish


    Dollar/Yen
    Dollar/yen reversed Wednesdays gains amid general dollar weakness. Mixed trading is likely today.

    Below 102.80, support is at 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.

    Immediate resistance is seen at 103.50. The next level is 104.20. Strong resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot that targets 104.00 and 105.00.

    Oscillators are declining.
    NEAR-TERM: Bearish
    MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
    LONG-TERM: Bearish


    Sterling/dollar
    Sterling/dollar broke above the top of its medium-term trading range on its way to the highest level of the year. The strength was confirmed only by the break above 2.0000. A bullish flag was triggered and this targets the 2.0465 area.

    Initial resistance comes at 2.0100. A break above this level would signal another further rally to 2.0185. This is followed by 2.0260.

    Immediate support is seen at 2.000. The next level is 1.9965. Below 1.9910, the next level follows at 1.9835.

    Oscillators are rising.
    NEAR-TERM: Bullish
    MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
    LONG-TERM: Mixed


    Dollar/Swiss franc
    Dollar/Swiss broke out from an inside range on its way to a record low. Mixed to lower trading is likely today.

    Immediate support is now seen at 1.0192. Distant support is now pegged at 1.0080.

    Initial resistance moved down to 1.0295. The next levels are 1.0335 and 1.0385. Above 1.0430, resistance comes at 1.0515.

    Oscillators are declining.
    NEAR-TERM: Bearish
    MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
    LONG-TERM: Bearish

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    Default

    i really a ppreciate the wAY u guys post these analyses,there are a
    really good.

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    Default Trading System Algorithms

    A trading system algorithm is a series of steps that shows how the system handles entries, exits at a loss (stop loss) and exits at a profit. Ultimately, these need to be coded into a computer system to automate your trading, but implementation is independent of the actual algorithm.

    In this posting, we are going to discuss some price smoothing algorithms.

    Price smoothing - why do it?
    The trader generally has to transform a price data series into trading signals, but price data itself is very noisy. It is similar to trying to tune into a radio station through a lot of static. It is hard to tell what is important, and what is just random noise.

    Noise is the non-tradeable component of price data. If you try to trade it, you will significantly reduce your profits. Clearly, the problem at hand is to isolate the noise from the signal. This smooths the price series so that the underlying direction is highlighted.

    This problem is well defined in signal processing and some quite advanced and effective techniques are available, but often traders use very crude approaches. I will start in this posting by discussing the traditional approaches and how they work.

    Contd....

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    Default Trading System Algorithms, Contd....

    Crude approaches

    I would like to describe two crude noise filters: the breakout and the moving average (and its variants).

    The breakout is an entry or exit signal that is triggered when the current price exceeds (e.g.) a 20 day high, or falls below a 20 day low. The parameters that can be tweaked are the number of periods and the amount by which the price must exceed or be below the high or low.

    The way that this works to filter noise is through a volatility filter. In effect, the system attempts to remove price volatility attributable to noise and assumes that a price that exceeds a certain level represents a true signal rather than noise.

    This is how a breakout can be described in an algorithm:

    If price + trigger amount > high of n periods then buy
    If price - trigger amount < low of n periods then sell

    The problem is that this approach is rather well known, and false breakouts are therefore quite common. This means that the noise from traders entering the market now distorts the signal.

    Another approach is a moving average. This is simply the average of the last (say) 20 periods. The result will be a smoother line than the original price series, but lagged by about 1/2 the period selected. A longer number of periods produces a smoother line, but with more lags to price action, while a shorter number of periods produces a less smooth line which reflects more noise, but is more responsive to changes.

    A moving average removes noise by reducing the impact of a particular noisy value by averaging it out. Because this is an average, it is still subject to distortion by extreme values, so it doesnt work well if you have very noisy data, unless you choose a very long moving average period, which causes lags.

    The algorithm for a moving average (n period, where n is an integer, e.g. 20) is as follows:

    Sum last n periods, then divide by n
    Move forward 1 period, then recalculate

    The moving average needs to be combined with some other rules for a complete trading system. For example, one popular approach is to look at when 20 period and 50 period moving averages cross over:

    If 20 day moving average crosses over 50 day moving average then buy
    If 20 day moving average crosses below 50 day moving average then sell

    There are some variants to this such as exponential moving averages and median filters. The exponential moving average has similar properties to the usual type but is calculated differently, so I wont go into detail here. A median filter is more interesting. This has less lag. The algorithm is:

    Sort last n periods of price data from highest to lowest
    Take the middle point
    Use this as the value

    Median filters can be used in a similar way to ordinary moving averages. They remove noise by excluding extreme values and looking at the value in the middle.

    All these algorithms can be easily implemented in Excel.

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    Default "Expectations"

    The Dollar express kept right on running through the day extending losses beyond the levels I had wanted to hold and kept on going to the lower weekly minimum target against the Swissie, just above the major lows around 101.20-40 Yen but only managed to trip over the 1.5346 target in the Euro by 13 points.

    Now all round the Dollar is seeing bullish divergences in both hourly and 4-hour charts following the sharp pullback from Fridays lows. We can take these as a warning, especially as we have broadly held some important levels. However, given the relentless nature of the Dollar losses it does also tell us to take care.

    What we do need to do is try and work out what will confirm reversals. Well, above 103.23-51 Dollar-Yen and below 1.5279 Euro would appear to be the first signals. The Swissie is a little less clear but Id suggest the 1.0307-35 area while the Pound needs to drop below 2.0036-66.

    Now this recovery would only be a correction so we shouldnt get too carried away. It should be quite deep and last over a period of several days at least may be as long as a week. There are still new Dollar lows to come but if I have go the long term monthly chart right then it should be the last decline for the year A bit hard to believe perhaps but well tackle that when we approach the long term targets.

    However, if the correction scenario works through expect it to be choppy & erratic Take profits early.

    Note important support and resistance areas:

    US/DJPY EUR/USD USD/CHF GBP/USD
    Res: 103.23-51 1.5502-15 1.0335-80 2.0329-67
    Res: 102.40-80 1.5430-72 1.0255-83 2.0232-48

    Spt: 101.20-40 1.5313-34 1.0165-88 2.0155-78
    Spt: 100.26-46 1.5254-79 1.0110-31 2.0066-96

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