Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets
09 Jul 18. 0907 IST or 0337 GMT or 2337 EST

STOCKS

Dow (24456.48, +0.41%) moved up while support near 24000 holds just now. Some sideways trade in the 24000-24750 region is possible in the coming sessions before the index moves up further. Near term looks bullish.

Dax (12496.17, +0.26%) has also moved up and looks bullish for the coming sessions targeting 12800-13000.

Nikkei (22063.74, +1.26%) has broken above 22000 level and if the index sustains above 22000, it could target higher levels of 22400-22600 in the medium term.

Shanghai (2789.08, +1.52%) has room on the downside towards 2700-2650. We do not expect a fall below 2650 in the longer run. The fall is likely in its last phase of the fall and would soon start rising back towards 2800+ levels to move higher in the longer run.

Important level to watch in Nifty (10772.65, +0.21%) is 10800. While the index trades below 10800, bearishness could persist. A sustained break above 10800 would trigger some medium term bullishness. Watch price action near 10800.

COMMODITIES

Gold (1259.50) has chances of testing 1270-1280 on the upside while above 1240.Near term looks bullish.
The Gold-WTI ratio could test resistance near 19 and could come off from there by end of the week.

Brent (77.50) and Nymex WTI (74.12) may come down to test 75 and 65 respectively before again moving up in the medium term. Immediate view is bearish with important supports near 75 and 65 respectively.

Copper (2.8610) has tried to move up a bit. But while the price remains below 2.90/95, bearishness is likely to continue.

FOREX

Euro (1.1761): With Dollar weakening due to the trade war initiation on Friday, Euro strengthened past resistance near 1.172 and could now move up to 1.185 in 1-2 weeks. The early part of this week could see an upmove towards 1.18. Some resistance near 1.1816 (13 weeks MA) could provide a pause in the upmove towards 1.185. The ECB Meeting minutes’ release on Thursday would be very important.

Dollar Index (93.92): Dollar weakened on Friday due to the beginning of the US-China trade war. It is currently at support near 93.8 on daily candles and daily line chart. This support could prove to be an interim one, with a further downmove towards 93.2 looking likely by next week.

Dollar Yen (110.46): Looking at weekly candles and 3 day line chart, some scope for 1 more week of ranging to bullish movement towards 111.5 seems possible. However with long term resistance @ 111.5, we are expecting Dollar Yen to turn bearish soon. A decisive break below 110.25-110.00 would be required for it to turn bearish.

Euro Yen (129.91): Euro Yen is currently close to resistance on both short term and long term charts. With our forecast for the current week being bullish for Euro and ranged to bullish for Dollar Yen, we might just see Euro Yen test levels near 130-131. However, with Dollar Yen expected to turn bearish after few sessions, Euro Yen could also turn bearish parallely.

Pound (1.3295): As per expectation, Pound is trading close to resistance on daily candles near 1.33 and might dip from here in this week towards 1.32-1.31. Pound seems to be bearish in the medium term. A break of 1.30 would be important for medium term bearishness.

Dollar Rupee (opened at 68.57):
Resistance at 69.00-10 has held well. Global Dollar weakness might be reflecting in the gap-down opening today.

INTEREST RATES

The first official tariff announcement between US and China happened on Friday and gave further impetus to the risk averseness sentiment prevailing at present.

German 10 year bond yield (0.292%) has broken support near 0.3% and could dip lower towards 0.2% in the coming 1-2 weeks.

US 10 year yield (2.84%), 30 Year (2.944%), 5 Year (2.7365%), 2 Year (2.549%):

The US 10-2 Yield Spread (0.291%) could fall towards 0.2% in the weeks ahead. This fall could turn out to be faster than markets are expecting.

The 10 Year yield looks bearish towards 2.75% while the 30 Year yield could test levels near 2.9%.


Author: Kshitij Consultancy Service
Website: http://www.kshitij.com
Kshitij Consultancy Service