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Thread: 牛顿:我无法计算人性的疯狂

  1. #1
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    Default 牛顿:我无法计算人性的疯狂

    刚做期货的时候,我请教过老师:要想做好期货,最重要的是什么?回答说:最重要的是要有一个好的心态。我虽然没有说什么,但

    我想:如果我每次判断都正确,心态还会坏吗?如果我经常判断错误,心态还会好吗?所以,我当时以为最重要的是判断正确,即信奉敏锐的

    洞察力和直觉。

    后来通过总结经验和学习他人,我对市场有了更深入的看法。但是,投资者如果纯粹要从书本中学会如何操作期货,那是难上加难了,毕

    竟过去的许多指标和技巧,已经过时。在《股票大师回忆录》中有这样一段话:人们易于相信自己乐于相信的东西。同时他们放任自己,甚至

    积极主动地被贪欲或粗心大意所左右,害怕和希望从未消失。因此对投资者心理的研究,其价值一如既往。成功的期货投机定律是建立在这一

    假设的基础之上的,那就是,人们将不断重复过去的错误。
    市场中的大多数输家都是败给自己,人最大的敌人来自于我们的内心。翻开历史图表,波峰、波谷间的巨大落差既是机会也是陷阱。期货

    市场不同于社会生活的其他方面,保证金杠杆在放大盈亏的同时,也放大了每个人的人性弱点。期货交易者总想一夜爆发,而疯狂时期的市场

    诱惑着由贪欲引发的和表面繁荣刺激的人类赌博本能。想轻松挣钱的人在付出代价之后最终会发现,这世上真的没有免费的午餐。牛顿说:

    我可以计算天体运行的轨道,却无法计算人性的疯狂。
    总的来说,人性有三大弱点:恐惧、贪婪和急躁,它们始终困扰着我们的一举一动。
    贪婪者,往往表现为过量交易,赚小钱赔大钱。当赚钱时恨不得一夜爆富,满仓(借钱甚至加上浮盈)运作;而在赔钱时,总希望价格回

    转,贪小便宜,指望打平再离场,结果越陷越深。

    恐惧者,在市场价格反复攀升达到或接近最高点时,无视市场的脆弱性,害怕自己踏空而盲目买入;在市场价格长期下跌,周围一片悲观

    ,生怕世界末日到来而挥泪斩仓。
    急躁者,当赚钱时觉得二鸟在林不如一鸟在手,浮躁的情绪左右着,随手便获利了结;当赔钱时,急于扳本,不能静下心来,耐心等

    待机会,而是频繁过度地交易。

  2. #2
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    Default

    贪婪者,往往表现为过量交易

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    Default

    要有一个好的心态

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    Default

    最重要的是要有一个好的心态

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