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Thread: 套息交易的蝴蝶效应

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    Default 套息交易的蝴蝶效应

    在美联储大幅降息美元连续走低、非美和高息货币稳步攀升的过程中,套息交易跟随外汇市场的波段震荡不断出现反复,同时又与日元震荡走势密切相关。美元每次稳步下跌都推动套息交易大量建仓,而非美货币和高息货币的回落又总是同时涌现套息交易大量平仓,在美元和欧元等非美和高息货币主导的外汇市场主线走势之下,套息交易的反复建仓和平仓又推动日元反复震荡,这是套息交易日益成为外汇市场重要动因的主要表象。

      套息交易作为表现国际游资动向和反映金融市场差异的重要因素,虽然主要指的是散布在全球各地的散户投资者,但从近年来其快速发展、日益影响外汇市场运行波段的动态来看,作为影响外汇市场的重要动因,套息交易可能在全球化投资的新背景下,逐渐走出作为乌合之众的历史附属地位,因应全球化过程中资本市场深刻变革的长期趋势,推动外汇市场发生深刻的变迁。

      套息交易的蝴蝶效应

      从2003年美国将基准利率维持在1%起, 随着全球化过程的演变和各国利差的不断扩大,套息交易逐步出现并迅速扩大,这本身就类似于蝴蝶效应从亚马逊流域到太平洋台风的一个过程。实际上,套息交易的蝴蝶效应还远不止于此,最初套息交易只能跟随外汇市场的波动变化而被动地获利,像蝴蝶顺应风向拍动翅膀,而 2007 年以来套息交易的这种蝴蝶效应则显示出越来越大的威力,直接表现就是套息交易的建仓与平仓,往往推动日元走势出现显著的反复震荡,甚至不能排除日元剧烈涨跌与套息交易的关系。

      从这个角度来看套息交易,蝴蝶效应可能已经完成了从亚马逊丛林到太平洋台风的整个过程,但套息交易的蝴蝶效应仍然可能继续演变。在这种效应推动下,外汇市场出现的一个显著不同于历史传统的特点就是,外汇交叉盘越来越受到重视,尤其是日元对欧元、日元对澳元和日元对加元等交叉盘,其走势变化甚至要领先于美元直盘走势,并使全球外汇市场的结构和空间出现明显变化,甚至套息交易对于推动非美货币之间的交叉盘走势也有显著影响,这可能促使全球外汇市场的结构和空间逐渐发生变迁。

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    Default

    套息交易跟随外汇市场的波段震荡

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    Default

    套息交易的“蝴蝶效应”还远不止于此

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