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Thread: 投机的真理

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    Default 投机的真理

    投机的真理

    零和游戏(资源量基本不变下的再分配)就意味着一部分人赚,另一部分人赔。但现实是赚钱的总是少数(多次民意测验统计所证明这是客观存在)。另一方面,假设赔的人少的话必然导致赔得很惨,那么这部分人会退出游戏,然后继续有一部分人继续演绎着不幸,于是又有一部分人退出,如此下去,游戏还能玩下去吗?但事实是游戏没有停下去,总有参与者不断地玩下去。所以也能证明上述事实。这个游戏是公平的,因为每个人都有机会赢;但更重要的是游戏必须是富有效率的,因为这是存在下去的根本理由,也是市场经济基本规则效率优先,兼顾公平所决定的。显然如上述分析,赔的人少赚的人多是没有效率的,市场只能选择赔的人多赚的人少,但赔的人太多且大多数人赔的过多,就破坏了公平原则。因此最好的状态就是人数与盈亏符合泊松分布,即赚的人较少,在价格水平不变的情况下,一般不超过4成,而赚的多的人更少。
    回到现象上,价格波动中,价格只有符合预期赢利方向才能赚,否则赔。羊群效应(资本的趋利避害性的通俗比喻)会促使一个趋势沿着原来的方向继续下去,随着预期的一致,这时可能会出现极端,当赚的人多到市场的效率显著下降或赔的人多到破坏了公平原则的程度时就是趋势终结之时。
    物极必反原理只说明了一个哲学道理。但什么程度才到了极点极如何把握,需要用剔除基本面变化因素后的上述公平和效率问题来把握。原理就是如此。剩下的就是通过统计分析的纯技术问题了,因比较复杂而且涉及到数学方法,有待进一步深入研究。欢迎致力于投资的广大同仁批评指正,发表高见。

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    Default

    不要在第一次回升时买进,也不要在第一次下跌时卖出

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    Default 避开数据波动期

    对于小投资来说,就象我,建议避开数据多的时候,在上午和午夜,那时的波动有规律,基本保证不赔,当然,要赚大钱就做梦了

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    Default

    符合预期赢利方向才能赚

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    一部分人赚,另一部分人赔。

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    投资者由于涉及个人利益的得失,因此精神长期处于极度紧张状态。如果盈利,还有一点满足感来慰籍;但如果身处逆境,亏损不断,甚至连连发生不必要的失误,这时要千万注意,不要头脑发胀失去清醒和冷静,此时,最佳的选择是抛开一切,离市休息。等休息结束时,暂时盈亏已成过去,发胀的头脑业已冷静,思想包袱也已卸下。

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    Default

    扩充你的市场信息来源;限制你的市场意见来源。

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