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Thread: Weekly Technical Strategist

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    Default Weekly Technical Strategist

    EURUSD: Reverses Its Two-Week Upside Gains, Risks Lower Prices Towards The 1.4310 Level

    EURUSD- EUR closed the week lower wiping out almost all of its two weeks gains to end the week on Friday at 1.4504.Having failed ahead of the 2007 peak at 1.4967 and cut through layers of support to trade at the present levels, EUR now risks further decline towards its Jan 2208 low at 1.4364 with a breach of there opening the door for further weakness targeting the 1.4310 level, its Dec 2007 low. Breaking and holding below the latter will extend price weakness towards its Sept 28/07 high at 1.4278 followed by its daily 200 ema at 1.4212 and then the 1.272 Fib Ext. at 1.4134.Both the daily and weekly momentum indicators are positive and pushing lower supporting the above view. However, a break back above its Jan 0108 low/.618 Ret (1.4310-1.4955 rally) at 1.4577/48 followed with a close above the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 0907/Dec 1107 highs will reduce its short term downside pressure and bring additional gains towards its Feb 0208/2007 peak at 1.4955/67.On the whole, while the medium term trend continues to point higher, short term weakness suggests further lower prices in the days ahead.


    Directional Bias:
    Nearer Term Bearish
    Short Term Bearish
    Medium Term Bullish

    Performance in %:
    Past Week: -2.02%
    Past Month: +1.90%
    Past Quarter: +2.20%
    Year-To-Date: -0.57%

    Weekly Range:
    High -1.4849
    Low -1.4440

    GBPUSD: Follows Through To The Downside, Keeps Focus On Its YTD Low at 1.9335.

    GBPUSD-A second-week of downside weakness saw the pair taking back most of its recovery gains off the 1.9335 low printed in Jan 2208 the past week. The said weakness now leaves the pair trading below its weekly 100 ems with further losses envisaged towards its YTD low at 1.9335.Overcoming this level will open up the pathway for more downside weakness aiming at its Mar07 low at 1.9180 and may be lower. Its daily momentum action remains suggestive of additional downside pressure as they continue to point to the downside.Conversely,nearby resistance on any recovery from here stands at the 1.9507/1.9481 zone, its weekly 100 ema/Jan 1108 low followed by the 1.9653/23 area, its Aug 1707 high/.50 Ret (1.8091-2.1160 rally)/Jun 0807 low and then its daily 50/ Sept 1807 low/weekly 50 emas at 1.9878/1.9938.Further resistance lies at its psycho resistance at 2.0000 and its .382 Ret (2.1160-1.9335 decline)/daily 100 & 200 emas at 2.0024/61.All in all, with price action and momentum indicators now pointing lower,GBP is poised to head towards the 1.9335 level.


    Directional Bias:
    Nearer Term -Bearish
    Short Term -Bearish
    Medium Term -Bearish

    Performance in %:
    Past Week: -0.98.%
    Past Month: +0.23%
    Past Quarter: -3.00 %
    Year-To-Date: -2.00%

    Weekly Range:
    High -1.9787
    Low -1.9388


    USDJPY: Remains In a Consolidating Mode, Maintains Its Bearish MT Outlook.

    USDJPY- USDJPY has been consolidating since hitting a low of 104.97 in Jan 2308.As long as the it continues to consolidate below the 107.22/55 zone, its Nov 23/2607 lows or even the 109.13/108.99 zone, its Nov 1107 / May06 lows, odds are for the pair to head lower to resume its decline off the 114.46 high registered in Dec 2707.In such a case, below the 104.97 level should accelerate weakness towards the 104.20 level, which marks its May04 low with a breach of there paving the way for further downside pressure targeting the 103.63 level, its Mar05 low and then its Jan05 low at 101.54.On the upside, breaking decisively above the 107.22/55 zone and the 109.13/108.99 zones is required to reduce downside pressure and turn further upside gains towards its Aug 1207 low at 111.58 with a loss of there exposing its Sept 1207 low at 112.60.The pairs nearer term corrective recovery is now supported by its daily stochastics which is heading higher.Overall,USDJPYs present price action remains corrective and should turn and head lower in continuation of its medium term downtrend on completing that recovery.

    Directional Bias:
    Nearer Term -Bullish
    Short Term -Bearish
    Medium Term -Bearish

    Performance in %:
    Past Week: +0.77%
    Past Month: -4.91%
    Past Quarter: -2.67%
    Year-To-Date: -3.96%

    Weekly Range:
    High -107.83
    Low -105.92

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    i don't understand this tread pls elaborate more..

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    Quote Originally Posted by richtrader View Post
    i don't understand this tread pls elaborate more..
    he has given the possible moves based on weekly close
    this is helpful when you plan to trade for 100 pips a trade
    [url=http:Rule 14

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    i thinks the main pivot for eur/usd is 1.6 ,which if the fed cut rates its likely we can reach that level.

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    Default Weekly Technical Strategist

    EURUSD: Tests The 1.5462 Level, Maintains A Fourth Week Of Upside Momentum

    EURUSD- EUR traded higher the past week testing a high of 1.5462 and sustaining its rise off the 1.4440 level,printed in early Feb’08.With the weekly momentum indicators still pointing higher, risk remains to the upside for further strength towards the 1.5462 level’which represents its Friday high ahead of the 1.5500 level, its psycho resistance level followed by another psycho level at 1.5600.While medium and longer term uptrend remains supportive of this scenario,hesistation to corrective pullbacks can not be ruled out especially now that the pair is now overbought on the daily time frame. Although weakness on Friday could have signalled the said correction, further decline could be seen towards the 1.5372 level, its 1.618 Fib Ext ahead of the 1.5274 level, which marks its Mar 03’07 high. Below there will pave the way for a run at the 1.5145 level, its 1.272 Fib Ext and then the 1.5000 level, its psycho level with a loss of there accelerating more downside losses towards the 1.4955/67 zone, its horizontal trendline/ Feb 02’08/2007 highs. The latter is expected to hold and turn the pair higher again. On the whole, as long as the 1.5145 level or even the 1.4955/67 zone continues to hold,EUR looks to head higher to resume its MT uptrend.


    Directional Bias:
    Nearer Term –Mixed
    Short Term –Bullish
    Medium Term –Bullish

    Performance in %:
    Past Week: +1.17%
    Past Month: +2.12%
    Past Quarter: +2.20%
    Year-To-Date: +5.70%

    Weekly Range:
    High -1.5462
    Low -1.5146


    GBPUSD: Breaks And Holds Above The 2.000 Level, Targets The 2.0310 Area.

    GBPUSD-After several days of hesitation ahead of the 1.9957/71 zone, its Jan 30’08 high/daily 200 ema,GBP shot higher the past week breaking through its psycho level at 2.0000 to as high as 2.0217 before closing the week at 2.0135 on Friday. The current break and hold above the 2.000 level now suggests that a move towards its Dec 06’07 low at 2.0310 could be shaping up where a push through there will set the stage for further upswing targeting its Dec 12’07 high at 2.0576.The weekly RSI and Stochastics remain supportive of this move which started at the 1.9360 low.Alternatively,if a corrective pullback is seen at this stage,its psycho support at 2.0000 will be targeted before the 1.9957/71 zone and then the 1.9653/23,its Aug 17’07 high/.50 Ret (1.8091-2.1160 rally)/Jun 08’07 low. The 1.9957/71 zone is now expected to reverse roles and provide support. All in all, with the latter now out of the way, the pair is now expected to head further higher.

    Directional Bias:
    Nearer Term -Bullish
    Short Term -Bullish
    Medium Term -Mixed

    Performance in %:
    Past Week: +1.22.%
    Past Month: -0.05%
    Past Quarter: -3.00 %
    Year-To-Date: +1.41%

    Weekly Range:
    High -2.0217
    Low -1.9722



    USDJPY: Continues To Set Lower Prices, Shifts Attention To The 101.68 Level.

    USDJPY- USDJPy put in a second consecutive weeks of downside losses the past following its decline through its key support/2008 low at 104.97 the previous week. Though the mentioned decline looks overextended on the daily time frame as the momentum indicators are oversold, as long as the pair remains below the 104.97 level in a bid to unwind the said condition, odds are for further fall aiming at its Friday low at 101.42 and its Jan’05 low at 101.54.Beyond there will open the door for additional decline to its psycho support at 100.00 and possibly lower. On the upside, its 1.618 Fib Ext.at 102.73 and the 103.63 level, its Mar’05 low will be targeted on any corrective bounce. Above there will leave the pair aiming at the 104.97 level where a halt is expected to turn the pair lower but if that fails,focus will then shift to the 107.22 area, its Nov 26’08 low and afterward the 109.13/108.99 zones. On the whole, the pair remains under pressure having resumed its medium term decline.

    Directional Bias:
    Nearer Term -Bearish
    Short Term -Bearish
    Medium Term -Bearish

    Performance in %:
    Past Week: -1.07%
    Past Month: -2.32%
    Past Quarter: -2.67%
    Year-To-Date: -8.11%

    Weekly Range:
    High -104.18
    Low -101.42

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    Default weekly analyses of eur/usd

    Euro Falls Just Short Of 1.55 With Fib Extensions Holding Resistance

    Another week has passed and another objective has been met. Since overtaking 1.50, momentum behind the euro's rally has certainly accelerated. This past Thursday, my target of 1.5325, at the lesser followed 138.2% Fibonacci extension, was met and surpassed. After EURUSD had overtaken this target with such force, I moved my bullish target out to the next major level – the 161.8% extension. This level is calculated from the same 10/09 to 11/23 rally that opened the pair's four month-long wedge that fell with the break of 1.50. Set at 1.5555, this new target could easily be met with another thrust to the upside; but the presence of the 161.8% extension of the 11/23 to 12/20 downswing at 1.5425 and the psychological significance of 1.55 have raised caution. To secure profit and reduce risk, I have moved my bullish stop up to 1.52.



    The Fibonacci Personality: As the great master of Pisa once noted all of life is composed of Fibonacci. I use these golden ratios to understand the movements of the market and profit from their predictions.
    Euro Falls Just Short Of 1.55 With Fib Extensions Holding Resistance
    Pound Forces Range, Considerable Breathing Room In Fib Congestion
    Yen Rally Hits Support With A 200% Extension Of The Last Pullback
    Parity May Be the Next Step For Swiss Franc Bulls
    Fib Congestion Keeps Range-Bound Canadian Dollar From Taking Direction
    Aussie Dollar Retraces, Fibs May Offer A Cheap Place To Buy
    Kiwi Retracement Doesn't Follow Fib Guidelines
    EUR/USD

    Strategy: Bullish against 1.5200, Targeting 1.5555

    Another week has passed and another objective has been met. Since overtaking 1.50, momentum behind the euro's rally has certainly accelerated. This past Thursday, my target of 1.5325, at the lesser followed 138.2% Fibonacci extension, was met and surpassed. After EURUSD had overtaken this target with such force, I moved my bullish target out to the next major level – the 161.8% extension. This level is calculated from the same 10/09 to 11/23 rally that opened the pair's four month-long wedge that fell with the break of 1.50. Set at 1.5555, this new target could easily be met with another thrust to the upside; but the presence of the 161.8% extension of the 11/23 to 12/20 downswing at 1.5425 and the psychological significance of 1.55 have raised caution. To secure profit and reduce risk, I have moved my bullish stop up to 1.52.

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    Default GBP/USD weekly analyses

    Strategy: Bearish against 2.0035, Targeting 2.0465

    The pound finally decided a direction for GBPUSD when the currency pushed through its broad range this past week and stumbled quickly into Fibonacci congestion. I had chosen last week to play the range rather than position for the breakout trade, but the my stop around the 38.2% retracement of the 11/09 to 1/22 downdraft was relatively close and kept me from greater losses (range trades aren't only appealing for their greater probabilities, but also for their use in defining close stops and reasonable targets). With this upside push, the medium-term outlook has donned a bullish garb and so my next target will be set at the top of the pair's larger-term fib congestion at 2.0465. This is against another modest stop of 1.9970 – the top of the January/February range.

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    Default usd/jpy weekly analyses

    $/Yen, Finally Achieved Long Term Target but....

    From a long term perspective, $/yen has finally reached the downside target since last summer at the base of the triangle-type consolidation that has been forming since 1999 (currently at 101/102). In the bigger picture, this scenario raises potential for an important bottom to form nearby (see shorter term below), with at least 3-6 months of gains back toward the ceiling of the pattern after (currently at 123, see "ideal" scenario in red on weekly chart below). However, with scope for more basing nearby and even some chance for a downside resolution (not currently favored but could trigger a downside acceleration and target the 1995 low at 79.80), for the longer term would stay patient for better signs of a more important bottom before buying for the longer term.

    Nearer term, the market is bouncing from the earlier test of Monday's low at 101.45 (see daily chart/2nd chart below). Though there is scope for another few days of upward correcting/short covering, there are no signs that a more important bottom is in place and leaves open scope for more basing back to the 101.45 low and even slightly below after. Think that an important bottom is close (see longer term above), but just not yet enough confidence that the final low is in place to buy. For now, would wait for this bigger picture bottoming to play out or for better signs that a more important bottom is indeed in place before buying. Remember, there are times in the markets just to stay patient. Nearby resistance is seen at 104.15 (38% from the Feb 14th high at 108.60, March 4th high) and 105.00, support before 101.45 is seen at 102.65.

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