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Thread: 美国非农就业数据能够提振美元么

  1. #1
    Market Maker nany13's Avatar
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    Default 美国非农就业数据能够提振美元么

    ,周五非农就业数据公布前,美元兑大多数货币持稳下跌。投资者对美国非农数据维持谨慎态度,认为若非农数据向好,或将提振美元,但有数个理由我们认为美元多头将会失望。

    首先,如果非农就业数据可以影响美联储货币政策,那么非农就业人数将十分重要,美联储主席表达得很清楚,无意在4月加息,除非美国国内外的经济出现较大好转,否则6月也将维持利率不变。若美国就业数据疲弱,这将验证美联储放缓加息的决定,加大美元的弱势。若美国非农就业数据强劲,就会有意见认为这些数据不会影响美联储的决定。除非美国非农就业数据增加30万人,失业率下降,平均时薪上升0.4%,略为下修上月的就业数据。其次,上月美国非农就业数据出现意外上升,本月非农就业人数再度上升的概率不大,特别是其他经济数据不佳的情况下。第三,平均时薪需要大幅上升才能满足市场认为美国经济复苏的期望,只是达到0.2%的期值是不够的。

    分析与就业市场相关的美国经济数据,有些数据表明美国非农或将疲弱。adp私人薪资增长放缓,就业人数只上升了20万,裁员数增加了31.7%,初请失业金人数出现小幅上升,消费者情绪指数出现恶化。但消费者情绪指数出现下降被会议委员会报告出现改善所抵销。续领失业救济人数同样降至最低水平,但我们知道亦跌至自10月以来最低水平,但我们很早就了解到,失业率下降不会导致就业出现较大增长。

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    美元短暂上升后还会下跌

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    nany13 (04-03-2016)

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