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Thread: 阴阳六律与买卖策略

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    Default 阴阳六律与买卖策略

      一天又一天,不知不觉,专职从事期货投资已经4个年头了。4年来,历经风风雨雨、沟沟坎坎,不经意间脑海中萦绕的感慨,挥之不去。

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      1.生和死。2001年4月,笔者莽撞地投身到期货市场,满心贪念,自以为是,在高位重仓买入小麦合约,不知止损,拖了4个月,资金权益只剩下一个零头。总结这个大跟头,笔者以为,期货投资要想死得快,必须同时具备三个条件:一是逆势,二是重仓,三是不止损。否则,想爆仓也不是那么容易。反过来讲,要想长久生存且“活”得好,不妨反其道而行之:顺势,轻仓,第一时间止损。总之,若怕赔钱快,别嫌赚钱慢。

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      2.进和退。做期货,应未言进先思退。从资金管理角度讲,一笔资金开户后,最多赔多少,心里应该有数。对职业操盘手来说,不管什么原因,赔掉本金的20%,将被停止操作,闭门思过最少三个月。如何守住并利用好这20%,是水平高低的试金石。从交易角度讲,每一笔单子都应有明确的止损条件。只想着顺利了赚多少钱,不想失利后怎么办,那不是完整的操作思路。就笔者现在的感觉,如果开仓时做最坏的打算,然后往最好处努力,可能心态会更平和。

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      3.多和少。就各种技术指标而言,多则惑,少则得。市场走势越纷繁复杂,越直接的指标就越能抓住本质。大道至简!判断趋势,均线是不错的指标。至于成交量和持仓量,笔者把他们的两者之和定义为流量,测算后,用来在不同品种间分配资金。

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      4.长和短。在均线的使用上,短的是兵,长的是将。如果我们的眼睛仅盯在5日、10日均线上,那顶多算个优等兵。要想当将军,还得看50日以上的均线。长短结合才会游刃有余——既能抓住大势,又能选择好进单时机。

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      5.大和小。想抱西瓜就别捡芝麻,为了抓住大的趋势就必须放弃小的波动。我们有时侯嘴上说爱趋势,其实骨子里是爱波动。古代有叶公好龙,现代的叶公也不在少数。

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      6.动和静。一波行情结束后,一般都有一段休整期,然后在继续原来的趋势。休整期的长短和行情的大小有关,行情大,休整期就长;行情小,休整期就短。黄金分割是时间和空间的转换器。

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      7.舍和得。任何一种操作方法都不可能把所有的行情一网打尽,能抓住大部分行情已经很幸运了。人要知足,没有舍就没有得。求全的另一种可能是导致我们误入歧途,迷失自己。

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      8.真和假。金无足赤,系统发出的开仓信号不可能每一次都百分之百准确,我们不能因为它的少数几次失真就怀疑其所有信号。说到底,期货投资是一种概率的博弈,只要我们的胜算大就足够了。所以,在信号没有被证明是假的之前,请相信并坚决执行系统所发出的信号。别忘了,我们有双保险足以应付假信号:轻仓,第一时间止损。

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      9.自律和他律。做期货就是要计划好交易,交易好计划。交易者心中都有一个大概的计划,但有时在交易时却走形变样,没有按规矩做。为此,经验告诫我们要严格自律。有些操盘手失利后也认为自己自律不够,并深深自责。

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      依笔者看,人性的弱点千年不变,我们没必要跟自己过不去,自律不行,我们可以靠他律,用制度和方法来解决人性的弱点。所有权和经营权可以分离,计划和执行为什么不能搞成流水作业?一个好汉三个帮,靠个人单打独斗,恐怕不如志同道合的团队更有力量。

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    一笔资金开户后,最多赔多少,心里应该有数

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    选择好进单时机

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    盯在5日、10日均线上

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    抓住大的趋势

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