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Thread: 大幅降息未能指明美元方向

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    Default 大幅降息未能指明美元方向

     本周美联储再次将基准利率下调50个基点,以刺激经济摆脱陷入衰退风险。这是10天内美联储的第二次大幅降息,尽管已经在市场的预期之内,但是如此大幅的下调利率还是令市场对于美国经济已经陷入衰退的猜测得到进一步确认。

      同时,美联储很有可能继续在三月份和四月份降息,这种预期的形成和巩固也将对美元汇率构成打压。目前多数主要国家的基准利率(除日本外)已经高于美联储,并且美国经济的疲软在今年将延续,这显然将使美元的吸引力降低,由此是否会引发各国央行调整外汇储备结构,以及美国巨额赤字的恶性循环目前不能确认,但这种可能存在。

      汇率方面,美元后市是否会出现让投资者跌破眼镜的进一步下跌行情呢?这要看其他央行的态度。美国经济如果确认进入衰退,那么一旦其他国家央行跟随美联储降息,那么美元汇率将得到一定的支持,至少不会出现跌破眼镜的下跌。反之,如果其他国家央行没有跟随美联储大幅降息,那么美元的前景相当悲观。根据目前各个主要非美元国家的央行已经发表的言论看,跟随美联储降息可能性从大到小的排列是:加拿大央行、英国央行、日本央行、欧洲央行、新西兰央行、澳洲央行。

      这里特别强调欧洲央行。欧洲央行的态度对于外汇市场的影响很大。如果欧洲央行后市跟随美联储降息,那么包括欧元,英镑,瑞郎等欧洲货币有可能面临集体的大幅回调。

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    Default

    其他国家央行没有跟随美联储大幅降息

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