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Thread: 外汇之星:美日头肩顶雏形 下行风险加剧

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    Default 外汇之星:美日头肩顶雏形 下行风险加剧

    美日短线头肩顶雏形,下行风险加剧

      基本面:

      美元向上调整的势头于昨天受阻,由于市场对金融企业第四季度收益前景担忧不已,全球股市纷纷走低,以及又有美联储官员表示美国经济增长面临风险。但从更广的范围来看,市场整个交易日内波动较大,美元维持窄幅波动,在触及盘中低点后出现回升,这主要是因为年底前交投清淡,而且市场也在等待本周晚些时候重要经济数据及重大决定的公布。加拿大央行作出了2004年4月份以来的首次减息决定,称原因是通货膨胀预期面临的下行风险加大。加拿大央行将利率下调25个基点至4.25%。市场对该行此举颇感意外,不过目前多数预计加拿大明年第一季度还会减息。另外,该行意外减息也加大了美联储于12月11日降息的可能性,预计投资者风险偏好仍将低迷,因此日元将继续受宠;下周美联储利率决定之前的美国数据至关重要。

      今日重要数据关注:

      21:30 美国 三季度非农生产力 前值4.9% 市场预测5.5% ★

      23:00 美国 10月份nar成屋销售 前值0.2%/月,-20.4%/年 ★

      23:00 美国 10月份工厂订单 前值0.2% ★

      23:00 美国 11月份ism非制造业指数 前值55.8 ★★★

      上一交易日走势回顾:

      昨天日元波幅98个点,收出一根小阴线。美日继续其缓慢下行回调的走势。从短线上看,汇价形成一个头肩顶的雏形,现在重点关注右肩是否能构筑成功,如果成功且颈线被突破,后市美日短线依旧有较大的下行风险。

      当日短线方向:震荡下跌,触底反弹

      弱支撑:109.45 强支撑:109.20

      弱阻力:111.20 强阻力:111.76

      图形及走势分析:

      日线图:



      4小时图:



      小时图:



      日线图,美日周初连续两天下行回调,macd上涨动能依旧充足,但快线已有拐头的迹象。从波浪上看,目前汇价处于b浪回调的过程中,后市仍有望展开c浪上行。4小时图汇价同均线系统密集交错,结合小时图看,有形成短线头肩顶的可能,但目前右肩还没有构筑成功。如果今天美日有一波上冲,然后再突破109.55的颈线位置,则后市下行风险将加剧。不过109.20一线为黄金分割50%百分比回撤档位,有一定的支撑力度。预计今天美日将是探底反弹的走势。

      操作参考:

      近期操作中,中线、短线均以区间操作为指导思路。

      有仓者:手中多空单暂时平仓离场,保持空仓。

      空仓者:今日观望。

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    Default

    可以认真思考

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    短线头肩顶雏形,下行风险加剧

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    市场对金融企业第四季度收益前景担忧不已,全球股市纷纷走低

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