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Thread: 外汇走势分析

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    Default 外汇走势分析

      美元走势

      今早上海天气雨雪止跌回晴,但周末前新一轮风雪将再次降临中国大陆土壤,希望此次天灾能够化凶为吉,令广大市民过一个好年。

      全球股市又如何?美股连续反弹2个交易日,上海股市昨天小幅反弹,今早执笔前上海a股再上扬45点,但相对上周五大幅下挫340点,投资者甚感无所逼适从. 今晚美联储局议息,柏南克是否再有出人意表的宣布, 全球股市是否象近日中国天气一样,止跌反弹后再次下降,大家拭目以待,做好应变措施.

      回说汇市,在美联储局议息前夕,美元兑主要货币表现反复靠稳,纽约早段,在市场预期联储局降息50个基点升温下, 高息货币汇价一度走强,特别是英镑兑美元汇价表现良好,升至自去年12月31日以来新高的1.9929. 而加元兑美元亦回升至0.9949加元高位.收报0.加元9984 欧元升势昨天仍受制于1.4770至1.4810阻力区域.收市见1.4769. 高息货币如澳元和纽元昨天表现牛皮靠稳,变化不大.分别收报0.8882和0.7774美元.

      至于交叉盘方面,英镑/日元和欧元/日元表现各异,前者上升64点收报212.97日元,而后者则下跌6点,收报158.13日元.

      今晚美联储局将公布会后结果, 市场预期减息50个基点,由于减幅已在市场预期内,美元汇价将小幅下跌后回稳. 万一,美联储局只减息25个基点,甚至宣布维持利率不变, 则大量先前美元空头回补涌现市场,推高美元汇价.

      近日,美联储局主席柏南克货币政策确令市场捉摸不定,去年,柏南克表示由于美国通胀仍挥之不去,如联储局连续降息则会出现滞胀令美国经济持续不振,但今月中,因法兴事件,突然大幅降息75个基点,其后在会后声明暗示联储局会再次降息, 市场对柏南克这次大幅降息说法莫衷一是,但大部份市场分析师认为柏老减错息. 今晚,柏南克是否因上周过速减息行动而推迟调低利率行动,以纠正上周过急的货币政策,大家不妨拭目以待.

      本文今天建议投资者应采取观望态度,等待美联储局会后声明才步处日后买卖策略.

      今天重点介绍3只货币给投资者参考,其余货币则采取观望态度,留待明天再谈.

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    美元/日元

      今天策略: 现阶段,美元/日元4小时图显示在"三角型"内运行, 如

      下破三角型支持线的106.60,则量度下跌目标为104.95,

      刚好是1月23日低位,上破107.15阻力线,可上望

      109.05.

      建议: 不破107.15前沽出美元

      目标: 106.50; 106.00; 104.95

      止损: 107.45

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    欧元/美元

      今天策略: 欧元兑美元昨天仍未能向上突破本文强调近期阻力区

      的1.4770至1.4810. 如今晚美减息50个基点后,欧元仍

      未能升破上述阻力,投资者可考虑沽出欧元.

      建议: 在不破1.4770至1.4810前沽出欧元

      目标: 1.4650; 1.4620; 1.4580

      止损: 1.4825.

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    英镑/美元

      今天策略: 英镑在周一技术回吐至1.9720后即出现急升至昨天高

      位1.9929(本文周评建议在1.9730至1.9750买入英镑,

      目标可见1.9848; 1.9880).预期本周会反复上试2.0关

      口.

      建议: 于1.9850前买入英镑

      目标: 1.9930; 2.0000; 2.0034

      止损: 1.9780; 1.9750

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    Default

    美元兑主要货币表现反复

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