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Thread: Bitcoin Analysis

  1. #286
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    Interesting...
    Thanks for starting this thread.

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    Anrakitori (10-24-2018)

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    BTC/USD

    The already tight range in BTC/USD narrowed further in the last seven days. We are quoted at $6,518 dollars right now, only down $26 dollars since our last update.

    Bitcoin Trading Range Narrows Further

    As noted above, the trading range has narrowed even further. The high during the past seven days stands at $6,731 while the low is at $6,479 dollars. Prices have been aimlessly bouncing around in this tight area.



    This will not last forever of course. Tight ranges are usually followed by a surge of price action. During quiet times like these, inexperienced traders usually increase their trading size to compensate for the lack of volatility and try to scalp the range. After the market breaks out, many traders who were busy buying lows and selling highs get ‘caught’ on the wrong foot and have to close their oversized positions quickly. This can trigger a snowball reaction as panicked traders rush to the door at the same time.

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    Last edited by Katya_95; 10-25-2018 at 12:17 PM.

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    BTC/USD

    Last week the price of Bitcoin has been hovering around $6556 levels before the price dropped. From last week’s high at $6624 the price decreased by 4.53% to its lowest point today at $6320.



    Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price is on the exact levels of the projection made on 24 October. WXY waves have been counted and as the price action formed a triangle, which points out consolidation, it has been projected that two more waves would appear, and as the wave Z ends on the triangle’s resistance line, a move to the downside would occur. The target for the end of the down move was the resistance level from the prior minor range from which the October 15th spike was made.

    Horizontal support level at $6516 was broken and the price is heading for the resistance line of the descending triangle seen on the 4-hour chart below, which was pointed as a likely scenario in the last week’s analysis.

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    Bitcoin Still in Larger Range

    With the sizeable drop on October 29th Bitcoin broke out of the smaller trading range, marked with a yellow rectangle on the chart below. We are currently quoted at $6,326 dollars, close to the most recent low at $6,295 dollars.



    Despite this smaller breakout however BTC prices are still well within the the larger range on the daily charts. The top of this range is at $6,825 dollars while the bottom is at $6,116 dollars. A breakout above/below these bounds could lead to a new uptrend/downtrend. As noted in previous articles, during times of market stress (like the recent Tether panic) it’s better to get an average price from the major exchanges like Bitstamp and Coinbase instead of relying on a single price provider. This smooths out the noise that could come from an exchange with internal problems not related to the general bitcoin ecosystem.

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  6. #290
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    BTC/USD

    Since last Tuesday the price of Bitcoin has increased by 2.41%, coming from $6327 to the current level at $6484.5.



    Looking at the daily chart we can see that the price of Bitcoin interacted with the horizontal support level at $ 6256 last Wednesday. That is why we have seen this increase over the course of the last week to the next horizontal level at $6516, which now serves as resistance. Yesterday’s candle was a red one indicating that the price might get rejected by the horizontal level, but as today’s candle is a green one with a wick interacting with the level, we are yet to see if the rejection gets validated or was it just a correction before a breakout.

    After the increase to above $7600 ended as a spike, I was expecting the price to interact with the descending triangle’s resistance line to retest it for support before a breakout could be considered. But as the price retraced by 100% and is now in an upward trajectory, I believe that the interaction will never happen unless the price falls straight down from here. As the price pulled back by 100% from the spike on Monday, October 15, it is still unclear whether this could be viewed as a “fakeout” or not because the price hasn’t quickly dropped inside the territory of the descending triangle. But it definitely shouldn’t be viewed as a breakout considering that the price retraced back to the same levels from which the increase was made.

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    Bitcoin Up but Momentum is Weak

    The short-term momentum in BTC/USD is up but weak. The percentage gain yesterday was only 1.4%, far from convincing. To get a stronger rally we may need a breakout above the $6,850 figure. A move above here would take us into bull territory on the daily charts.



    Below we’re looking at the $6,200 level as a potential bear trend starter. Weak support below can be found at $6,116 followed by the $6,000 round figure. We have a major level of support at the yearly low of $5,766 dollars. A clean break below here could lead to a quick retest of the $5,000 round figure. There’s no change in trend on the longer-term charts either. Here the weekly charts are slightly bearish while the monthlies show a slight bullish bias.

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    Bitcoin price hovers around the EMA50, keeping its stability below 6500.00 level, while stochastic reaches the overbought areas.



    Therefore, our bearish overview will remain valid until now, depending on the price stability below 6500.00, reminding you that our main waited targets located at 6040.00 followed by 5880.00.



    Expected trading range for today is between 6000.00 support and 6500.00 resistance



    Expected trend for today: Bearish

  9. #293
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    BTC/USD

    Last Tuesday, November 6th, the price of Bitcoin was at the opening around $6470, and measuring to its current levels of $6438 the price has fallen by only 0.49%. The price hit its recent high the next day on November 7th reaching $6609 and spiking up to $6615 from where the price has been in a downtrend correcting, reaching the recent low at $6380, and spiking down to $6358.7 at its low. Measured from the recent high to the recent low, the price has pulled back by 3,44% but has recovered since its making up for the downfall and is now at 2,61%.



    In our last week’s analysis, it was projected that “the 5 wave could get a bit higher to the marked zone ($6560-6580) but in both cases, I would be looking at more downside for Bitcoin in the upcoming period as after an impulsive 12345 a correction occurs according to the Elliott Wave Principle”.

    Read more in FXOpen blog.
    Last edited by Anrakitori; 11-13-2018 at 11:52 AM.

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    Bitcoin Down as Tether Drops Again

    As we can see on the chart below, the zig-zag movement in BTC/USD continues. After last week’s small rally this week we’re witnessing a selloff.

    The divergence between tether and USD-based bitcoin exchanges continues. On Bitfinex one coin is selling for $6,476 dollars at the moment. On other exchanges like BitStamp and Coinbase bitcoin is trading at average of $6,277 dollars. This is due to the lower price of tether, a so called ‘stablecoin’ that is used as a substitute for USD on exchanges that have banking issues. Tether is trading at 97 cents right now, 3% below it’s ‘peg’.



    Three days ago Bitfinex increased their fiat withdrawal fee to 3% for some customers. This quickly resulted in the market discounting the value of tether from around 99 cents down to 97 cents. The market is indicating that the banking problems for Bitfinex are not over yet. Last month when the latest tether drama started we wrote about tether and it’s influence on the crypto ecosystem. Let’s repeat some of what we wrote for newer readers.

    Read more about Bitcoin on FXOpen blog.

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    BTC/USD

    Since last Tuesday when the price of #Bitcoin was around $6500 we have seen a downfall of over 30% measured to the lowest levels Bitcoin’s been today, which is at $4529.



    This move to the $4700 area was expected as the price action formed a bearish pennant from which, if you were to project the length of the prior move from the apex, you would get a target at around $4700. Also, this was the target area for the descending triangle breakout seen on the daily chart below.

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    BTC/USD

    Last week on Monday, November 20th the price of Bitcoin was at $4977, the week’s highest point. From that high, the price went back to the levels from which the increase around $4500 was made and then continued to move to the downside. Measured to the current level of $3748 the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 24.65%.



    Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price action is indicating a downtrend even though it looks like the price has stabilized at around $3782, where the horizontal significant level is serving as support. Since the price interacted with the level for the third time in the last couple of days, currently we are seeing that the price is below the mentioned level.

    Read more on FXOpen blog.

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    BTC/USD

    Since our last week’s analysis on Tuesday, November 27, when the price of Bitcoin was at its lowest point at $3759, it has even spiked to $3683, but the hourly candle has closed above leaving a wick.



    Since that low, which was the lowest price, has been since the start of the year, we saw an increase up to $4416, which was a higher high compared to the previous one at $4169. From there on the price started decreasing and since it came down to the horizontal support level at $4045, price action created a higher low, indicating the start of an uptrend and an ascending channel outline started forming.

    Read more on FXOpen blog.

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    BTC/USD

    Since last Monday when the price of #Bitcoin was at $4178 at the open, the price has decreased by 17.25% measured to the current levels at $3447.9.



    Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the price broke out from the descending channel on the downside and went below two significant support levels – the downtrend support line 2 (bold black line) and the horizontal support level at around $3439, going to $3306 at its lowest point on last Friday, December 7th.

    Read more on FXOpen blog.

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    BTC/USD

    At the moment of our last week’s analysis on Tuesday, December 11th the price of Bitcoin was $3524.5. As the price was in a downward trajectory it kept falling after a small increase and has broken some minor support trendlines in the process line, the minor uptrend line from the December 7th low and the horizontal support level from that low as well and came down to the next significant horizontal level at $3237, which served as support. This whole down move dating from 9th of December when the price of Bitcoin came up to $3713 at its peak is the corrective wave X, which meant that another increase was to be expected to around the same levels or a bit lower than the hight of the W wave ending point.



    This is exactly what happened as the price of Bitcoin increased by 14% from the horizontal support level at $3237 to $3683, which is close to the vicinity of the W wave ending point. Now, when the price has reached those levels and the Y wave is most likely over, we are seeing a correction and judging by the wick from above the price has encountered the sellers’ territory. This pushes the price back, most likely to the black bold line, which is the baseline support 2 of the downtrend, where it is going to retest the support as the price previously broke it from above.

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    BTC/USD

    From January 1st when the price of Bitcoin was $3797 at its lowest the cryptocurrency price has increased. BTC/USD is currently trading at around $4140 which is an increase of 9%. The price went further up since the start of the year and was $4218 at its highest point so far on Sunday.



    On the hourly chart, the price action has created a triangle, and the price has broken out from it on Sunday when it reached $4218 making it the yearly high so far. The BTC/USD pair broke the horizontal resistance at around $4000 as well a minor one at $4081 (the prior two highs level). The BTC price also broke the descending channel formed since the price reached the bold black line. As the cryptocurrency moved close to the black bold line, the significant downtrend support, it’s likely going to retest the level from the downside again.

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