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Thread: 澳洲联储利率分析

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    Default 澳洲联储利率分析

    澳央行可能等待市场形势明朗后再做决定

    澳大利亚央行(RBA)将在2月初召开会议,因恶性通胀问题加之美国严重衰退的担忧。)
    这可能令澳大利亚央行保持等待观察的态度,观察美国和全球市场在美联储(U.S. Federal Reserve)紧急降息75个基点之后所展现的问题。

    因担心美国经济大幅下降,市场最近极为不平静,促使美联储在定期的央行会议一周前采取了措施。美国股市脱离了22日的低位,多数亚洲股市23日也有所恢复。
    如果市场在未来几天仍平静,那么澳大利亚央行可能会采取加息措施
    第四季度通胀率上升1.1%,07全年增长3.6%,高于央行预期的3.25%增幅。目前通胀基础广泛,不仅是由几个经济热点所推动,而且经济学家表示,通胀轨迹仍比较尖锐。
    通常情况下,这样的通胀的步伐将使得澳央行在08年采取不只一次而是一系列的加息。
    但全球金融市场的混乱将使得澳央行严肃考虑世界经济的前景。所调查的20位经济学家中,仅有11名经济学家预计澳央行会在2月5日的会议上加息。

    鉴于剧烈的问题,澳央行可能需要不止一周的时间来评估增长威胁,推至3月做出是维持还是放弃紧缩观点的决定。

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    Default

    这样的通胀的步伐将使得澳央行在08年采取不只一次而是一系列的加息

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