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Thread: 零和游戏下的相反理论是投机的真理

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    Default 零和游戏下的相反理论是投机的真理

    零和游戏下的相反理论是投机的真理

    零和游戏(资源量基本不变下的再分配)就意味着一部分人赚,另一部分人赔。但现实是赚钱的总是少数(多次民意测验统计所证明这是客观存在)。另一方面,假设赔的人少的话必然导致赔得很惨,那么这部分人会退出游戏,然后继续有一部分人继续演绎着不幸,于是又有一部分人退出,如此下去,游戏还能玩下去吗?但事实是游戏没有停下去,总有参与者不断地玩下去。所以也能证明上述事实。这个游戏是公平的,因为每个人都有机会赢;但更重要的是游戏必须是富有效率的,因为这是存在下去的根本理由,也是市场经济基本规则效率优先,兼顾公平所决定的。显然如上述分析,赔的人少赚的人多是没有效率的,市场只能选择赔的人多赚的人少,但赔的人太多且大多数人赔的过多,就破坏了公平原则。因此最好的状态就是人数与盈亏符合泊松分布,即赚的人较少,在价格水平不变的情况下,一般不超过4成,而赚的多的人更少。
    回到现象上,价格波动中,价格只有符合预期赢利方向才能赚,否则赔。羊群效应(资本的趋利避害性的通俗比喻)会促使一个趋势沿着原来的方向继续下去,随着预期的一致,这时可能会出现极端,当赚的人多到市场的效率显著下降或赔的人多到破坏了公平原则的程度时就是趋势终结之时。
    物极必反原理只说明了一个哲学道理。但什么程度才到了极点极如何把握,需要用剔除基本面变化因素后的上述公平和效率问题来把握。原理就是如此。剩下的就是通过统计分析的纯技术问题了,因比较复杂而且涉及到数学方法,有待进一步深入研究。欢迎致力于投资的广大同仁批评指正,发表高见。

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    只使用均线的背离,而不用均线做买卖信号,它是延迟指标,对外汇来讲太慢。

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    资源量基本不变下的再分配

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    说实在的,这些东西写得很好!个人在汇市中也深有体会,目前关键在于执行力的问题,譬如止损,譬如买卖点,还有耐心等等,与其说是投资,不如说是做人,自己在做什么样的人,做过外汇保证金之后才知道,自己到底是不是个真实的自我。

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    没人愿意赔钱,可是在这么个市场,大家都在不断学习。你要怎么才能不败呢。接着学习吧,学习总结人家所不知道的,走在更多人前面。

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    十次买卖就算有五次亏、五次赚吧,如果能够狠下决心,毫不手软,亏的五次每次都是亏一点点,赚五次时都赚一大块,相信综合计算赚多亏少并非难事。

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    楼上的说的是,坚决止损的话,还是赚的多

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    总体上来说是这样的
    但现实可能是楼主写的前部分
    赚的人多数,但是是少赚
    而赔钱的人是少数,大亏而被淘汰,又有一些大亏的少数来弥补资金的分配。

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