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Thread: 《saft专栏》美联储紧急降息理由不足,未必有好效果

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    Default 《saft专栏》美联储紧急降息理由不足,未必有好效果

    路透达沃斯1月24日电---就像穿着高档皮鞋在达沃斯积雪的街道上踽踽独行的银行家一样,美国联邦储备理事会(FED)可能也发现一个问题:脚下打滑,前进乏力.

    联储的紧急降息举措可能会有所帮助,但在本质上却说明了所面临挑战的难度,以及解决问题的可行途径效果有限.

    美联储在例行议息会议之前一周,出人意料地大幅降息75个基点至3.5%.

    不过考虑到此次危机的实质--房地产相关贷款泡沫的破灭--货币政策的起效太慢,与前几次危机时相比效果也不佳.

    事实上,联储紧急降息给人留下张惶失措的印象,再加上市场原本已经预期下周央行将会降息50个基点的事实,证明了该央行的选择并不多.

    摩根史丹利亚洲董事总经理罗奇(Stephen Roach)在达沃斯经济与企业领袖峰会上对路透表示,"有两个因素引发了此次危机:房价的下滑和信贷泡沫的破裂.美联储此次的大动作不会修补危机对供求关系的影响,也不能令信贷市场回到危机爆发前的状态."

    联储紧急降息後股市上扬.此次降息幅度为多年来最大,但美国房价的不断下滑也可能令其影响不及通常的预期.原因归结于这次并不是非降息不可.有谁会在一两年後有望以更低价格购得房产的情况下,现在就急于出手呢?这时就算按揭贷款成本下降了,也难以提起人们的兴趣.

    与之类似,信贷市场的功能失调也会令这次降息向经济传递的效果大打折扣.虽然一些人估计,大约一半的美国按揭贷款者能够通过以市场利率水平进行再融资,从而降低贷款成本,但多数抵押贷款的二级市场已经关闭.

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    Default

    估计美元还会继续下跌趋势。

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    不过考虑到此次危机的实质

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