View Full Version : Long Term analysis

01-09-2008, 09:40 PM
Hi, i have some time and i made an analysis of the monthly chart of the UJ pair currency. Please, this is only an analysis, and if you trade using it, know that you are trading at your own risk, thanks.

With a simply view of the chart, appears a triangle, almost at the end of its formation. Obviously, is a Montlhy chart, so the end is some months beyond.

This formation have a target of 6700 pips, acording to my own calculations, but more conservative calculations shows at least 5000 pips. The target maybe will be reach from oct 2012 to may 2013.
A fully long term trade.:D


As the end is uncertain yet, i calculate the target for the both positions; anyway, seeing the MACD, the signal is going to the zero position and the histogram is starting to go below the zero level. I suppose the triangle shows in sometime from here a longterm short position, because of other signal that put the dollar in a weak situation...


Watch the 200 EMA (black line) acts as a resistance in the upper band of the triangle.
Anyway, a pullback is near, when one of the bands be broken the pullback will start. Such point could be a good moment to open a position til the level estimated, and open an inverse position, when that level be reached, til the band of triangle. After that, the bullish or bearish time will start.


For Long position: the pullback will put the price Over the 23.6 fibo level (127-140 yens) before fall to the upper band of triangle at 118-116 yens; and after that, grow between 5000-6700 pips to 170-185 yens per dollar . (i estimate target between 180-185 yens)

For Short Position, the pullback will put the price below 100 yens (a hard psychological barrier for traders) probably between 95-90 yens per dollar, no less than that, i guess; before start an uptrend to the below band of the triangle at 108-113 yens, and after that, a big fall to approximately 70-50 yens per dollar...

the fully analysis is :


I hope, you write your opinions!! Thanks

01-18-2008, 05:42 PM
good ana.

01-20-2008, 07:20 AM
maybe you are right,but cann't understand all,it is very useful,thanks

01-27-2008, 02:12 PM
Well, i have sometime to watch my analysis, and then I decide to modify a band of the triangle. If my expectations are right, the triangle formation is over, and a pullback is done too. So, and if i am not wrong who knows) we can expect a downtrend year. the target are still in the 6700-5000 pips from its pullback's ending position...

the chart is this:


01-29-2008, 05:38 AM
It should test 107.64 area after which a sell off down to 106.25 or extended to 105.61 area is expected.
sm_scatter sm_scatter

01-29-2008, 10:19 PM
107.11. It looks set for gains to above 107.43. Supports at 106.75 and 106.91. A break of 106.59 will damage this bullish structure.
sm_scatter sm_scatter

01-31-2008, 07:07 AM
There is bearish potential for a fall to 105.83 while 106.64 - 106.86 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 106.86 or 107.08 is expected. sm_scatter sm_scatter

02-01-2008, 12:41 AM
106.43. It may attempt a test higher to 106.66 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 105.80 limit. sm_scatter sm_scatter

02-23-2008, 10:54 PM
hi, the downtrend started in 108.3x it could signal end of the correction started from 104.94, cause looks very strong and it was fast.
More fall will be expected for the week is coming tomorrow. The support is 107.30, and after 104.97. A fall below 106.80, that was tested in friday should bring a sell-off to 105.40, 104.97, 103.80. Another fall put USD could easily below 100 yen.

02-23-2008, 11:18 PM
l think this system same like mouteqi, but what indicator do u use?

before l am sorry if my english is badsm_smile

02-24-2008, 02:34 AM
l think this system same like mouteqi, but what indicator do u use?

before l am sorry if my english is badsm_smile

Hi, i used for this analysis, this is not a system, fibonacci retracements in a montlhy and Weekly charts, so this is longterm analysis. But it is useful in the medium term, weekly and daily... and if you use a 1h chart, it is useful for the intraday... because it can bring you the top and bottom of a trend.
see you

03-11-2008, 08:36 PM
well a break of 105 will indicate that a run from 110 to 101 has finished and we would head back to 124.50 june 2006 high....

03-14-2008, 03:47 PM
well, the 100 level was tested 3 times for some days ago, counting today's test, with the sad, not bad, news from USA. Over and over, new by new push dollar below the 100 yens.
If the 100 level is left behind below the 97.50 level, the next level that comes is 80. is the next target, . I think there is no recuperation for this number.
IF is reached, downtrend in medium and long term.
See you

07-17-2009, 08:00 AM
Japan has announced its faith in USD's reserve currency and also declared that it will keep its foreign exchange reserves in US dollar or US Treasury bills. China has also announced that it will keep buying US dollar.

Therefore, USDJPY will rally past 100 soon and head to 110 before the end of this year.

Just my $0.02! Do not trade immediately based on such opinions! Do your own due diligence and find an appropriate entry for buying/selling.

07-29-2009, 01:11 PM
Japanese economy are very corrupted, last night datas show to us.
JPY down for long term.

07-30-2009, 07:10 AM
JPY is so weak but its time to realization

07-30-2009, 08:59 AM
95.04 is very strong resistance you can see last couple weeks bars.

07-30-2009, 11:47 AM
it's protecting resistance level, do not trade usdjpy today (my opinnion)

07-30-2009, 12:35 PM
resistance broken but we should careful because unemployment data is worst

07-31-2009, 07:31 AM
BAD data outof japan

23:15 JPY Manufacturing PMI Jul 50.4 -- 48.2
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Jun 5.40% 5.30% 5.20%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Jun 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Jul -1.70% -1.70% -1.30%
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Jun -1.70% -1.60% -1.10%
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jun -32.40% -30.60% -30.80%
5:00 JPY Construction Orders Y/Y Jun -28.00% -- -41.90%

buy pair from 95.30 To 96.55 and stop loss below 94.45, might be appropriate.

08-04-2009, 02:52 PM
USD/JPY - 95.22

Most recent candlesticks pattern : Hammer
Trend : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level : 94.92
Kijun-Sen level : 95.13
Ichimoku cloud top : 94.65
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 94.24

Original strategy : Sell at 95.65, Target: 94.50, Stop: 96.20

New Strategy : Buy at 94.70, Target: 95.60, Stop: 94.15

Although the greenback dropped to an intra-day low of 94.36, as dollar quickly turned back north from there, suggesting the pullback from 95.89 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen but it is necessary to see a break of said resistance to confirm upmove from 91.73 has resumed towards 96.15/20 (the confluence of 100% projection of 91.73 to 94.80 measuring from 93.09 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.45 to 91.73 at 96.16). Having said that, we still expect price to falter well below key resistance at 97.00 and bring retreat.

In view of this, turn long on dips but one must book profit on such a rise. Below the flat ground Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 94.24) would signal top has been formed and break of 94.01 support would confirm and bring further decline to 93.81 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 91.73 to 95.89) then towards 93.32 (61.8%) later.

08-07-2009, 01:08 AM
Getting nearer with daily Ichimoku `cloud as yen keep on climbing on new uptrend channel. Kijun line pointing downside and tenkan line forming a flatline all of this mixed indicator making hard to justify what is the prefered direction for yen movement. But yen keep on drifting into upperside direction with a wide intraday swing and looks like yen will be able to go beyond 96 in the next couple session ahead.

08-07-2009, 06:27 PM
A better than expected US jobs report was the spark that ignited a rally in the dollar and the stock market. The rally has carried the dollar up over 200 points versus the yen, and is challenging the highs achieved back in June. The stock rally which continues in the afternoon session has resulted lower bonds and notes resulting in higher yields. Next weeks auction will offer 23B 10year notes, today yielding 3.86% compared to Japanese 10 years notes paying only 1.43%. Perhaps some of the dollar buying and yen selling today may be in anticipation of the US Treasury auction.

Though the dollar rally is on a Friday, and the US auction looms next week, prefer to be a cautious seller at above 97.50. The dollar strength should result in Japanese companies selling to bring home offshore sales and profits.

08-11-2009, 05:26 AM
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 96.90 and closed at 97.06. As long as the pair stay above 96.70, any downside correction is normal after significant bullish running on Friday. On h1 chart below we have a flag formation which technically a bullish continuation scenario, where the price consolidates lower in a minor bearish channel after significant bullish and a breakout from the flags upper border is expected to continue the bullish scenario towards 98.50. However, until that happen, I prefer to stay out for now.

08-11-2009, 07:13 PM

The Yen crosses; namely the AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY are threatening a dark cloud or bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly.


A post I made in the commodites/metals forum is related to China, potentially
using creative accounting to exaggerate their stimulus. Also, as in the Aluminum
market, prices are soaring despite falling demand. This would add downside risk to

The risks to GBP etc are the 'green shoots', which may be running out of steam.

CAD/JPY would offer the better rate differential at -0.15%, followed by GBP at -0.4%
on the shorts.

08-11-2009, 07:37 PM
Ben Bernanke and his colleagues at the FOMC are making their first rate decision after the unexpected drop in the American unemployment rate. Here are two dollar-bullish moves they could do. Since the dollar yen correlation is strong, shorting the yen crosses looks quite interesting. Heres a preview for the FOMC Statement:

Past Dollar Yen Correlations

Strong moves in the dollar usually mean that the dollar strengthens against all the currencies, or weakens against all of them. But again and again, the correlation between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen appears.

This correlation means that when the dollar strengthens against most currencies, it loses ground to the Yen. And when the dollar weakens against most of the currencies, it strengthens against the Yen. For example, if EUR/USD go up, so does USD/JPY. And when GBP/USD goes down, so does USD/JPY.

In February I wrote about this issue for the first time, and then I recommended that when the Dollar Yen correlation appears, trading the Yen crosses is favorable.

This phenomenon appears from time to time, and it usually goes hand in hand with big moves. At the beginning of March, the Non-Farm Payrolls for February sent the dollar plunging against the European currencies, but it made gains against the Yen. Heres as analysis of the currency correlation on that NFP release.

After a few months that were mostly characterized by trading in narrow ranges, the forex market went wild last week: the dollar collapsed and then leaped back up.

At the beginning of this week, the dollar gained against the European currencies, but yet again, weakened against the Yen. The moves at the beginning of this week are still not big. The market is expecting the FOMC Statement.

Why this FOMC Statement is Different

Ben Bernanke already shook the markets on March 18th, when the FOMC Statement was a real bomb - printing 1 trillion dollars. After a few months of calm statements and calm reactions, this FOMC Statement comes in the aftermath of the surprising fall of the unemployment rate in the US.

The Federal Open Markets Committee stands at what seems like a crucial moment. Are Ben Bernanke and his friends also optimistic about the recovery? Obama was quick to celebrate. While the Federal Funds Rate isnt expected to move from a maximum rate of 0.25%, the FOMC Statement sure is interesting.

If they see the light at the end of the tunnel, they could do one of the following:

■Hint about a future rate hike: After months of rock bottom interest rates, Bernanke could start preparing the markets for a change in policy. January 2010 sounds reasonable, but he could also hint that the rate will rise sooner.
■Stop the toxic assets plan: after printing a significant amount of the money that was allocated for buying the banks toxic assets, he could state that the program reached its goal, and the banks have stabilized.
In any of these cases, the dollar will rise. And if the dollar yen correlation doesnt fail, the Yen will rise even more. So, a short on the EUR/JPY or on the GBP/JPY could be a good opportunity.

If Bernanke and co. dont see the recovery like Obama, the dollar will likely drop, and long positions on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY would be interesting.

Since commercial traders are dollar bulls this week, then in the first scenario, of dollar gains, the move will be bigger than in a case that the dollar falls

08-12-2009, 05:29 PM
How long will the higher equity and lower yen story remain on the best seller list? That scenario sent the dollar down through our 95.50 buys down to 95.24 before making a rally back. New fundamental news from Japan was sparse overnight. There was a year to year comparisons of the Japanese consumer inflation that was a minus 8.5%, a little better than the 8.8% that had been projected. With the FOMC report expected to contain few surprises this afternoon, the US equities markets are surging ahead, and likewise the yen now trading at 96.
The sell off in the dollar to the yen carried down he trend line that has been in place for the past month. If there is a little demand for dollars perhaps because of the US Treasury auction, the market could have a rally back to the 97 level. Continued equity strength could accomplish the same thing by depressing interest in the yen.

12-25-2009, 03:30 PM
Japan government just passed a historic deficit budget that is bound to weaken the Yen significantly next year. I recommend long term investors to go LONG in USDJPY and ALL JPY CROSSES, including EURJPY, GBPJPY. GBPJPY may hit back 240+ next year and depending on USD weakness. In particular AUDJPY may be a strong LONG bet in 2010 given projected AUD strength and JPY weakness.

Japan sovereign debt will hit 180 percent of its GDP, which may push bond rating agencies like Moody to the edge of downgrading it. These will further weaken the Yen.

By 2012 Yen may be near 140+.

This may be your chance to become a millionaire. Think long term.

12-27-2009, 10:27 PM
just wanted to add a word of caution that simply because there is a good future prospect for USDJPY long one shouldnt rush in and buy immediately! Always look for a good entry point, especially after a short rally you must remain patient and look for pullback/corrections. If you trade long term, then it is definitely reasonable to remain patient and find a good entry point.

01-16-2010, 12:46 PM
USD/JPY: Stalking Complex Correction

Daily and 4H: Last week's post mentioned the USD/JPY stalling at resistance after a completion of a bearish butterfly pattern. This now, the USD/JPY declined to the 90.50 area in a expanding pattern.

The stochastic suggests oversold conditions in the daily, and a possible bullish stochastic forming in the 4H time-frame. A break of the downsloping trendline near 91.30 spells a rally to test the 93.00 resistance area.

However, another scnenarios is possible. As the decline was heavy, we may have a further swing towards the 88.75-89.80 or 78.6%-61.8% zone. Here, if the market can bottom and show bullish signal, and still suggests a test and possible break above the 93.00 resistance area.

01-19-2010, 04:44 PM
Despite early rise to 93.78, the retreat from there and the break of 91.25 suggest the first leg of upmove from 84.82 (tentatively a leg of wave (2)) has ended there and b leg of this wave (2) is now in progress for weakness to 89.30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the a leg from 84.82), then towards 88.24-32 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement and previous support), however, reckon chart level at 87.36 would contain weakness and bring c leg of wave (2) next month.

Our latest preferred count is that, wave 1 ended at 87.10 followed by a 3-legged wave 2 at 101.45 and the wave 3 is unfolding with wave (1) of 3 sub-divided into i: 91.73, ii: 97.79, iii: 88.01, then wave iv at 92.33, therefore, the wave v of (1) has ended at 84.82 and wave (2) is now unfolding with a leg possibly ended at 93.78) and b leg of wave (2) should be limited to 87.36 and bring c leg of wave (2) later.

On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 92.00/10 and bring such a decline in b leg of wave (2). Only above resistance at 93.78 would indicate the rise from 84.82 is still in progress for headway to 95.00/10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.45-84.82) but reckon price would falter well below resistance at 97.79.

Our alternate count is that only wave (3) of 1 has ended at 87.10 and the rise from there to 101.45 is the wave (4) of 1 and the (5) of 1 has possibly ended at 84.82. In the event the greenback is able to close above 95.10 on a daily basis, this would add credence to this slightly more bullish count (only for the near term) and bring stronger correction in wave (2) of 3 towards 97.79.

02-12-2012, 10:29 PM
Well, UJ is still moving into downtrend areas, but is probably a reverse. Japan economy is moving into darkness territory, and interventions are on the game for sometime ago.....
75 is the number for next BoJ intervention if price move til there. I believe we can see that price and lower prices (67yens). Question is: May BoJ fight alone against all mayor market movers? Will see... For now, interventions only help investors to Sell for higher areas.

02-24-2012, 02:29 AM
I think the USD/JPY pair will still make bullish movement as it has break Daily resistance zone and now heading the nearest Weekly resistance zone at 81.50. A BUY position for Long Term is a good choice....

03-02-2012, 09:09 AM
The carry trade
One theory for the stronger yen is the unwinding of carry trades by Japanese investors.
The story goes like this:
Traders who had borrowed yen and sold it to invest in higher-yielding assets, including other currencies, became fearful of the European debt crisis and a potential hard landing in China. They repatriated their yen, despite miniscule domestic rates of return. At least it’s a trusted return of capital. If you are Japanese, the yen is a safe haven. Once risk seemed to
be receding in mid-February 2012, though, Japanese carry-traders were said to be ramping up carry trades again.