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rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:24 AM
Forecast for forex trading

rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:28 AM
UPDATE

As euro's intra-day rise has gathered momentum,
suggesting further gain twds 1.5587 wud be seen,
however, abv there is needed to confirm upmove fm
1.5303 has resumed n extend twd 1.5610/15.

Turn long on dips with stop as indicated, break
wud prolong choppy trading n weakness to 1.5492 can
not be ruled out but 1.5467 sup shud hold...

Range Forecast
+1.5545 / 1.5575+

Resistance/Support
R: 1.5587/1.5618/1.5685
S: 1.5525/1.5492/1.5463

rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:30 AM
UPDATE

Resistance levels: 1.5570/1.5630/1.5660
Support levels: 1.5530/1.5470/1.5400
EUR/USD has made pullback down to 1.5470 Support and our down target yesterrday on the break below 1.5530 exactly as it was suggested in our previous report No important fundamental news today No change in our view. On the upside , the upmove remains intact for further upmove towards1.5630 over the next trading sessions First target comes in the 1.5570-90 area On downside, first crucial Support comes near 1.5470 Below turns price back to 1.5400 in longer term
Strategy-neutral

rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:31 AM
UPDATE

Resistance levels: 1.9740/1.9800/1.9850
Support levels: 1.9700/1.9620/1.9580/1.9500
GBP/USD has risen above 1.9740 our target and Resistance over the last trading sessions exactly as it was suggested ( just a shy away from our second target at 1.9770 after stronger than expected UK Retail Sales numbers ( m/m) We have booked 60 pip profit over the first part of our Long position On the upside, as long as price holds above 1.9700 first immediate Support there are chances of further upmove towards 1.9800 later today On downside, below 1.9700 may squeeze price down to 1.9620 Support over the next trading sessions
Holding GBP/USD Long at 1.9650, Stop-loss-1.9690( up from 1.9610), Take profit-1.9710( 1.9770 )

rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:32 AM
UPDATE

Resistance levels: 108.00/108.60/109.00
Support levels: 107.00/106.50/105.80
USD/JPY has fallen below 107.80 previous crucial Support over the last trading sessions The break below these levels turns price back to 107.00 and even 106.60-50 region over the next trading sessions First important Support comes near 107.00 On the upside, there is Resistance near 108.00 yesterday highs ahead of 108.50-60 region
Strategy-neutral

rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:34 AM
UPDATE

Resistance levels: 1.0450/1.0550/1.0630
Support levels: 1.0400/1.0310/1.0220
USD/CHF has found base at 1.0310-00 area over the last trading sessions , recovering back near 1.0450-60 crucial Resistance as it was suggested on the break above 1.0380 . Now first immediate Support comes near 1.0400 . below turns price back to 1.0310 base over the next trading days On the other side, a break above 1.0450 is needed to signal for further upmove towards 1.0550 in mid term
Strategy-neutral.

rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:35 AM
UPDATE

Resistance levels: 168.00/168.40/169.00
Support levels: 167.10/166.30/165.60
The Cross has tested 167.00 levels over the last trading sessions , turning back into positive territory No change in our view. The uptrend remains intact and further upmove towards 168.00 and 169.00 over the next trading sessions may be seen as long as price holds above 167.10-00 first Support First minor Resistance stands at 167.80 On downside, below that area may cause pullback down to 166.30 later today
Strategy-neutral.

rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:37 AM
Firm economic data out of the Eurozone, a sharp increase in Euribor (Euro money market rate) and waning expectations of a Fed rate hike all helped the selloff in USD in the London session. German PPI came in higher than expected for May at 1.0% after a 1.1% print the prior month. This took the annual rate to 6.0% from 5.2%, a near 2-year high. Italian industrial orders and sales rocketed higher in April rising 1.2% and 2.2%, respectively -- both much higher than expected.

Thus the overall tone in Eurozone data was one of higher inflation and resilient economic growth and practically sets in stone an ECB rate hike next month. EUR/USD opened the session near 1.5512 and was sitting near the highs around 1.5609 at the end of London trading. The sharp increase in Euribor, which rose more than 30 bps to 4.43% is helping support Euro gains into NY trading as well.

USD/JPY pulled back in the London session as the bad news about further downgrades of US bond insurers looks to have finally sunk in. US yields plunged overnight with the 2-year off 8 bps to 2.85% and the 10-year slipping 6 bps to 4.15%. This helped take USD/JPY from an open near 107.93 to a session close around the 107.55 mark.

The weak nature of the USD helped Sterling (GBP/USD) extend gains as well. With no fresh economic data from the UK to bite on, markets are still on a sugar high from that recent booming retail sales report. GBP/USD opened London trading near 1.9722, ran as high as 1.9780 and would close a touch below there around 1.9763.

For the upcoming NY session, look for some moves in USD/CAD as we get Canadian retail sales at 8:30ET. The market is looking for a 0.6% increase in April versus a 0.1% result the prior month. Canadian economic data has been surprising to the upside of late and, if past is prescient, we could see a likely retest of yesterday's USD/CAD lows around 1.0110.

rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:38 AM
The Dollar weakened against the Yen on the early trade, as a fall in Tokyo’s stock market diminished the appetite for risk and for carry trades, which involves selling low-yielding currencies such as the Yen and buy higher-yielding currencies and assets. The US Dollar traded at 107.86 against the Yen at 7:00am GMT. The Dollar is depreciating thanks to the release of weak US economic indicators this past week, including data that showed housing starts slumped to a 17-year low.

The Dollar also declined against the Euro, on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold next week, in order to boost economic development, after it had stated it should increase borrowing costs due to high inflation. The US currency traded at 1.5528 against the Euro at 7:00am GMT. The Euro was also supported by the release of the German PPI m/m at 7:00am GMT, which was released better than expected at 1%.

The Euro rise against the Yen, on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal on its speech later today that it can raise interest rates next month. The Euro traded at 167.50 against the Yen at 7:00am GMT. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker stated yesterday, before a European Unit summit, price pressures in the region are too high. “Monetary policy expectations will prevent any rapid declines in the euro versus the dollar and the yen”, said Masafumi Yamamoto, head of foreign exchange strategy for Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan currency trader. “A July rate hike is a done deal.”

The Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar appreciated against the US Dollar on speculation both countries will maintain their rate advantage against the US. The Aussie rose 1.4 percent this week against the American Dollar and it traded at $0.9520 at 8:00am GMT. The kiwi jumped 1.6 percent against the US currency and it traded at $0.7619 at 8:00am GMT.

Today investors will be paying attention to the release of Core Retail Sales m/m in Canada, which are expected to rise 0.5 percentage points, boosting the nation’s currency since it shows a positive trend in the economy. In the Euro Zone, ECB President Trichet will make a speech later today where he is expected to signal a raise in borrowing costs next month.

rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:45 AM
The Dollar rose versus the Euro on Thursday, helped by a sharp drop in crude Oil prices to 131.93 and a surge in British retail sales that caused traders to offload the European single currency to buy Sterling.

May's surprise jump in retail sales raised expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates, helping to drive the pound to its highest level in over a week against the Dollar and spark a rally versus the Euro. While the Federal Reserve had turned hawkish due to rising price pressures ignited by record oil prices, analysts believe it is unlikely to raise U.S. interest rates before year-end as the economy remains sickly.

Swiss National Bank left interest rates unchanged at 2.75% despite inflation at multiyear highs had some psychological effect on the market, but analysts cautioned against reading too much into the move. There had been suggestions that the Swiss bank's decision could mean the European Central Bank would not tighten policy further after an anticipated rate increase in July.

Yesterday, EurGbp was down 0.96% to 0.7859. EurUsd was down 0.3% at 1.5499. GbpUsd rallied to an intraday peak of 1.9746. It was last up 0.67% at 1.9726. UsdJpy went up 0.18% at 108.01 while UsdChf rose 0.85% to 1.0443. EurChf rose 0.53% to 1.6184.

rba1446
06-21-2008, 06:49 AM
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had mixed day with multiple factors pulling and pushing the world’s largest currency. News of a large increase in the price of Oil in china sent Crude Oil future down over $5 in anticipation of weakening demand from the emerging powerhouse. Poor economic data had little effect with weekly jobless claims coming in a slightlyhigher than expected at 381K vs. the 375K forecast. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index was also weaker at -17.1 vs. economists call for -10. In the US share markets, the NASDAQ was up 32 points (1.33%) and the Dow Jones was up 34 points (0.28%). Crude Oil closed down $5.03 ending the New York session at $131.65 per barrel.

The Euro (EUR) came under pressure yesterday falling against all the majors as Oil fell and a large sell off in Swiss francs weighed. Once again the single currency gravitated towards the 1.5500 level. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5467 and a high of 1.5586 before closing the day at 1.5495 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German PPI m/m is expected to come in at 0.9% for May and ECB President Trichet speaks.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) sharp falls in the Nikkei (-2.33%) yesterday helped the yen gain as risk aversion crept into the market. EUR/JPY broke below 167 and USDJPY fell of the 108 handle. High yielder’s bounced as Wall St. recovered led by the GBP/JPY dragging AUS/JPY and NZD/JPY higher. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.42 and a high of 108.07 before closing the day around 107.86 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) received a massive boost with the May Retail sales seen at it’s strongest on record at 3.5% month on month. After last months fall of -0.3% May was expected to come in a little better at -0.1%. Strong clothing numbers caused by large one day sales have been put forward as an explanation. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9580 and a high of 1.9744 before closing the day at 1.9738 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) had a strong day taking advantage a rise in demand for high yielding currencies and a strong rally in Gold. AUD/JPY made new multi month highs consolidating above 102 and shrugging off early stock market weakness. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9448 and a high 0.9518 before closing the day at 0.9517.

Gold (XAU) had a strong rally breaking up through $900 and quickly moving higher to $907.9 before a stabilizing stock market and large fall in Oil retraced most of the gains. Overall trading with a low of USD$884 and high of USD$907.9 ending the New York session at USD$898 an ounce.

rba1446
06-23-2008, 02:14 AM
UPDATE

Friday's firm breach of previous sup at 107.42
confirms recent upmove has indeed made a top last
week at 108.59 n although 107.11 has contained weak
ness, outlook remains mildly bearish for decline to
107.00 but reckon sup at 106.56 wud hold in Asia.

Sell dlr on recovery as only abv 107.70/80 wud
signal intra-day low is made, 108.03/08...

Range Forecast
107.25 / 107.50

Resistance/Support
R: 107.68/108.08/108.59
S: 107.11/106.79/106.50

rba1446
06-23-2008, 02:17 AM
The dollar fell broadly on Friday as fears of further write-downs in the U.S. financial sector raised speculation the Federal Reserve would not signal a shift toward tighter monetary policy when it meets next week. Rising oil prices, more inflation-busting talk from a European Central Bank official and an unexpected surge in German producer prices in May to a near two-year high added to selling pressure on the greenback. These developments were seen as confirmation that the European Central Bank would deliver an interest rate hike next month, as flagged at the bank's last policy meeting. A hike would further enhance the euro's yield appeal against the dollar.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's tough inflation talk boosted the dollar in recent weeks, but analysts reckon that signs of more turmoil on the U.S. financial sector could prevent the central bank from following the hawkish words with action. The Fed meets on June 24-25 and is widely expected to leave the Fed funds rate target at 2 percent after slashing it by 3.25 percentage points since September. The statement accompanying the decisions will be closely watched for clues on the future course of monetary policy.

U.S. interest rate futures have reduced the chances of a 25 basis points rate increase in August to about 40 percent from 48 percent. Expectations of a year-end rate hike have also been trimmed. The New York Board of Trade's dollar index, which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, dropped to a session trough at 72.932 (the lowest level since June 10). It was poised for its largest weekly loss since March 30.

The euro jumped to an intra-day peak of 1.5652 against the dollar. ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, writing in a column for the Financial Times published on Friday, said the central bank will have to raise interest rates unless the euro zone services sector improves productivity to counter higher commodity prices. At the same time, German producer price inflation rose at a faster-than-expected pace in May to its highest level since July 2006, fanned by surging energy costs.

Cable maintained its early rally after the higher-than-expected retail sales data released on Thursday (an increase of 3.5% M/M and 8.1% Y/Y in May versus forecast of –0.1% and 4.1% respectively) and rose to an intra-day high of 1.9792 against the dollar.

Oil prices earlier topped $136 a barrel, rebounding from Thursday's sharp sell-off after China's move to raise fuel prices. The dollar has tended to fall when oil prices surge due to speculation that oil-producing countries may use the increased dollar-denominated windfall from crude exports to buy euros and other currencies to diversify their portfolios. Worries about the health of the U.S. financial sector knocked stocks and sent the dollar tumbling against the Japanese yen. The dollar fell as low as 107.12 versus Japanese yen.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars posted weekly increases on speculation these commodity currencies will maintain their yield advantages over the U.S unit and rose to 0.9567 and 0.7648 respectively. The target lending rates of 7.25 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand compare with the 2 percent Fed funds target.

On Monday, economic data releases include U.K. Rightmove house price index, German import price index, service and manufacturing PMI, eurozone's service and manufacturing PMI.

rba1446
06-23-2008, 02:20 AM
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) fresh credit fears sent the dollar lower yesterday as expectations of an interest rate rise decreased. US stocks fell to a 3 month low with Moody’s downgrading bond insurers and increased Oil prices hurting US car manufacturers. Over the weekend world and industry leaders met in Jeddah to discuss the record Oil prices, reports suggest that no OPEC wide agreements were reached but Saudi Arabia again confirmed its willingness to increase production. In the US share markets, the NASDAQ was down 55 points (-2.27%) and the Dow Jones was down 220 points (-1.80%). Crude Oil closed up $2.77 ending the New York session at $134.70 per barrel.

The Euro (EUR) made good gains against the struggling USD on the back of rallying oil and firming expectations of a July ECB Interest rate rise. Initially upside momentum came from May German PPI coming in higher at 1.0% vs. economist’s predictions of 0.9%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5493 and a high of 1.5652 before closing the day at 1.5621 in the New York session. Looking ahead, a big day of data with June German manufacturing PMI expected at 53.2 alongside the Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI forecast at 50.2. Also released is the June German IFO Index expected to weaken to 102.3 from 103.5 in May.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) sharply lower stocks allowed the Yen to make solid gains into the close of the week as a spike in risk aversion supported. The correlation between equities and JPY has been weakening of late with renewed carry trade and high oil prices becoming the new theme. EUR/JPY was supported by large gains in the EUR/USD trading above 168 for the second time last week. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.12 and a high of 108.07 before closing the day around 107.25 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Q/Q forecast at -17. UPDATE BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions -15.1 Q/Q.

The Sterling (GBP) supported from USD weakness as the market comes to grips with conflicting data and interest rate expectations. Early Monday saw the release of Rightmove House price index coming in at -1.2% for May. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9702 and a high of 1.9791 before closing the day at 1.9760 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) with weak economic data now old news, renewed carry trade interest and a rally in gold supported the Aussie into the weekend. AUD/JPY made new highs as a result taking the Aussie Dollar for the ride yet any further upside potential was limited as stocks fell in the US session. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9482 and a high 0.9567 before closing the day at 0.9534.

Gold (XAU) made good gains reclaiming the $900 level as risk aversion spiked and broad USD weakness supported. Overall trading with a low of USD$896 and high of USD$907.40 ending the New York session at USD$903 an ounce.

rba1446
06-23-2008, 02:22 AM
UPDATE

As dlr has fallen after brief recovery to 1.03
70/72, suggesting decline fm 1.0475 wud resume for
re-test of 1.0319, however, nr term o/sold condi-
tion shud limit downside to 1.0303 n reckon 1.0270/
75 wud hold fm here.

Trade fm short side with stop as indicated, abv
wud risk correction to 1.0395/00 b4 down...

Rate: +1.0320+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 1.0361
Objective: 1.0320
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.0422/1.0440/1.0475
Support: 1.0319/1.0303/1.0250

rba1446
06-23-2008, 02:23 AM
UPDATE

As euro has risen after finding renewed buying
at 1.5592, retaining our bullishness for recent up-
move to extend gain twds 1.5640/45, however, o/bot
condition shud limit upside to 1.5680/85 n risk fm
there has increased for a retreat later.

Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, be-
low wud risk 1.5560/65 b4 up...

Rate: +1.5635+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 1.5605
Objective: 1.5635
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.5625/1.5685/1.5720
Support: 1.5587/1.5542/1.5525

rba1446
06-23-2008, 02:36 AM
UPDATE

Cable's intra-day breach of 1.9746 signals re-
cent upmove has resumed n further gain to 1.9775/80
is envisaged, however, loss of upward momentum shud
limit upside to 1.9801 n risk fm there has increas-
ed for a retreat later.

Buy with stop as indicated n only below 1.9699
sup wud signal temp. top has been formed...

Rate: +1.9780+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 1.9740+
Objective: +1.9780+
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.9748/1.9801/1.9830
Support: 1.9699/1.9675/1.9645

rba1446
06-24-2008, 12:51 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK:

Although cable's retreat fm Friday's 1.9792 high
has kept price under pressure, as long as near term
good sup at 1.9699/00 holds, bullishness remains
for a rebound but abv 1.9770/75 needed to confirm
upmove has resumed for re-test of 1.9792.

Trade fm long side, stop as indicated, break wud
signal temp. top made n risk retrace. to 1.9670/75.

Range Forecast
1.9710 / 1.9740

Resistance/Support
R: 1.9792/1.9801/1.9852
S: 1.9731/1.9699/1.9675

rba1446
06-24-2008, 12:52 AM
UPDATE

EURUSD

The Euro climbed higher versus the greenback on Friday, testing offers around the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5843-1.5302 move, at 1.5636. Current pullback into the 1.5580 zone may bring initial support at 1.5570 on focus and a potential break lower could extend the decline towards key intraday support into the 1.5480 region. Short term sentiment remains bullish while the Euro holds above the mid 1.54 zone and a corrective move towards 1.5510-30 seem possible. Current quote is 1.5589 @06:30 GMT

Support levels: 1.5560, 1.5535, 1.5510, 1.5480 and 1.5430
Resistance levels: 1.5600, 1.5636 and 1.5700
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
06-24-2008, 12:54 AM
UPDATE

AUDUSD

The .96 zone is on focus once again and only a minor resistance at .9565 is seen between current quote of .9540 and the .96 zone. Intraday support starts at .9530 backed by .9515 and .9495. Important support is seen at .9470 formed by an upward trendline started on June 12. Intraday momentum is neutral at the time of this report and a corrective pullback to .9500 seem possible while resistance into the .9565 region is intact. Current quote is .9546 @06:30 GMT

Support levels: .9530, .9515, .9490 and .9470.
Resistance levels: .9565, .9600 and .9630-50.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
06-24-2008, 12:56 AM
UPDATE

EURCHF

Ranging conditions remain valid while resistance at 1.6220 holds. A break is needed to confirm the resume of the uptrend started at 1.6025. Important resistance follows 1.6220 at 1.6250 and may limit upside for a while. Current quote is 1.6181 @06:30 GMT

Support levels: 1.6150-60, 1.6100 and 1.6070.
Resistance levels: 1.6200, 1.6230, 1.6250-65 and 1.6300.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
06-24-2008, 12:59 AM
The Euro slumped against the Dollar, after the release of French PMI revealed that the second biggest economy in the Euro Zone is suffering a contraction in the manufacturing and the services sectors. The Euro traded at 1.5585 against the Dollar at 7:00am GMT. “The fact that it’s in contraction territory is a concern. The reality for most of the Euro Zone is that the economy outside the Germany is very weak”, said Daragh Maher, senior currency strategist at Calyon.

The British Pound dropped against the Euro and the Dollar on the early trading, after UK housing prices were revealed yesterday at -1.5 percent, the highest drop this year. The Pound traded at 1.9677 against the Dollar and at 0.7904 against the Euro at 7:00am GMT. The UK currency, historically one of the strongest currencies in the world is losing value as the British economy is showing signs of recession, due to the spreading US credit crisis.

The Aussie is appreciating against the US Dollar, supported by a Government’s report that showed the Australian Trade Balance is improving; exports are expected to increase in 40 percent between 2008/2009. The Australian Dollar traded at 0.9548 against the US currency at 7:00am GMT. In opposition, the Fed is expected to keep borrowing costs on hold, after it had signal a possible rise in the beginning of the month.

The New Zealand Dollar fell on the early trading, after the Bank of New Zealand revealed the economy contracted in the first quarter; the kiwi traded at 0.7622 against the US Dollar at 7:00am GMT. Speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be forced to cut interest rates, in order to boost economic development is pushing the nation’s currency down.

In a poor day in terms of economic data, investors were paying attention to the release of economic indicators in the Euro Zone at 9:00am GMT. The European strongest economy, Germany, revealed some negative data concerning Manufacturing PMI and Business Climate; the Euro dropped to 1.5520 as soon as the data was released.

rba1446
06-24-2008, 01:01 AM
EURO
The euro weakened vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5470 level and was capped around the $1.5635 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 50% retracement of the move from $1.5300 to $1.5650. The common currency came sold off after the German Ifo business climate index fell to 101.3 in June from 103.5 in May, worse-than-expected, while the expectations sub-index was also weak. The main headline print of 101.3 was the weakest level since December 2005. Additionally, the EMU-15 services sector PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.6 while the EMU-15 manufacturing sector PMI fell to 49.1. These data were reported a little more than a week before the European Central Bank is expected to lift its main refinancing rate by 25bps to 4.25%. Most traders believe the ECB will only lift rates once but a one-off hike may not be enough. It was also reported that consumer input price inflation surged to 67.4 from 64.4, its highest level since October 2000, while output price inflation jumped to 55.6 from 54.8. ECB member Stark hawkishly said it is essential “we seriously examine the current level of the key interest rate.” In U.S. news, traders are closely monitoring Friday’s downgrades of two U.S. bond insurance companies and Citigroup’s announcement that it is slashing 10% of its investment banking staff. The Federal Open Market Committee convenes tomorrow and Wednesday and is expected to keep rates unchanged and signal that inflation is more of a threat than a slowdown in economic growth. Euro bids are cited around the $1.5230 level.

rba1446
06-24-2008, 01:03 AM
JPY / CNY
The yen depreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the 108.05 level and was supported around the 107.10 level. The government reported sentiment among large Japanese companies weakened in Q2 for the third consecutive quarter with the business sentiment diffusion index for large companies falling to -15.2. The print was much worse than expected and suggests next week’s Bank of Japan Tankan corporate sentiment survey could come in on the weak side. Prime Minister Fukuda said Group of Eight policymakers “should consider ways to resolve the problem of inflation” and cited oil and food prices as problem areas. G8 policymakers will convene in Japan between 7-9 July. Other data released today saw May supermarket sales off 1.1%, the second consecutive monthly decline. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.61% to close at 13,857.47. Dollar bids are cited around the 103.00/ 101.35 levels. The euro weakened vis--vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the 166.85 level and was capped around the 167.80 level. The British pound and Swiss franc came off vis--vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the 211.05 and 102.95 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8750 in the over-the-counter market.

rba1446
06-24-2008, 01:05 AM
STERLING
The British pound depreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9590 level and was capped around the $1.9755 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $2.0395 to $1.9360. Data released in the U.K. overnight say Rightmove house prices fall 1.2% m/m in June. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Sentance hawkishly reported “We will need to ensure that the rise in inflation injected by rising oil and commodity prices does not become broad-based. That requires that wage and price increases more generally do not pick up in response to a temporary episode of rising headline inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee cannot influence wage and price increases directly. But we can influence the economic climate in which they take place.” Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9360/ 1.9100 levels. The euro moved higher vis--vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.7920 level and was supported around the ₤0.7890 level.

rba1446
06-24-2008, 01:06 AM
SWISS
The Swiss franc depreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0485 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0330 level. The Swiss government raised its inflation expectations for 2008 and 2009 and reduced its 2009 GDP growth forecast. SECO sees the economy expanding 1.9% in 2008 and 1.3% in 2009 and sees inflation growth around 2.5% this year. Swiss National Bank kept its target rate for three-month Swiss franc Libor unchanged at 2.75% last week. SNB sees 2008 inflation growth around 2.7%. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.0250 level. The euro and British pound gained ground vis--vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6230 and CHF 2.0540 levels, respectively.

rba1446
06-24-2008, 01:08 AM
Euro falls against the dollar on weak eurozone economic data

The euro fell against the dollar on Monday after the release of a weak German business confidence indicator (Ifo index fell from 103.5 to 101.3 in June) which dropped to the lowest level since 2005. The manufacturing and service industries in eurozone also contracted this month, hence dampening the prospects of an ECB rate hike later this year. The Swiss franc dropped versus all of the other major currencies after the government reduced its economic growth forecast for next year.

The single currency retreated from Friday’s top at 1.5652 and continued to decline after the release of weak economic data out of Germany and the eurozone. The euro also fell against the Japanese yen to 167.87 before rebounding in late European session.

Sterling fell as Rightmove Plc (Britain's most-used property Web site) reported earlier in the day that the average house prices in the United Kingdom dropped in June (–1.2% M/M and 0.1% Y/Y versus 1.2% and 2.2% the previous month) and cable retreated to an intra-day low at 1.9585.

The dollar has strengthened versus European currencies and also traded firmly against the Japanese yen to around 108.00 in New York afternoon, with price having fallen to a marginal low 107.11 earlier in Australia. Financial markets are expecting the Fed to hold rates unchanged at 2 percent on Wednesday but a pair of rate hikes have been priced in by year-end due to surging energy and food price inflation.

Futures contracts showed investors lowered bets on additional rate increases by the ECB. The implied yield on the March Euribor futures contract dropped 2 basis points to 5.31 percent. The contract has gained 55 basis points in the past month.

The Swiss franc fell to as low as 1.0494 per dollar on Monday, the biggest drop since June 12, after the Bern, Switzerland-based State Secretariat for Economic Affairs lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2009 to 1.3 percent from a prior estimate of 1.5 percent. The Swiss National Bank left its target lending rate unchanged at 2.75 percent on June 19, keeping it among the lowest rates in the industrialised world.

On Tuesday, economic data releases include German Gfk index for July, U.S. consumer confidence for June and house price index for April.

rba1446
06-24-2008, 06:26 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK:

Although usd's retreat fm 108.08 suggests fur-
ther consolidation below there wud be seen in Asia,
as y'day's rally fm 107.11 suggests the corrective
decline fm 108.59 has ended there, reckon 107.65/70
wud contain downside n yield another rise later.

Buy on dips with stop as indicated, below wud
defer n risk stronger pullback to 107.30/35...

Range Forecast
107.70 / 108.00

Resistance/Support
R: 108.08/108.44/108.59
S: 107.55/107.11/106.79

rba1446
06-24-2008, 06:28 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK:

Euro's retreat after meeting renewed selling
at 1.5528 suggests the recovery fm y'day's low at
1.5468 has ended n near term decline fm 1.5652 shud
resume for re-test of 1.5463/68 sup area, break wud
extend to daily obj. at 1.5450 later.

Hold short with stop abv said res as break wud
risk correction to 1.5545/50 b4 down...

Range Forecast
1.5490 / 1.5515

Resistance/Support
R: 1.5537/1.5595/1.5636
S: 1.5498/1.5463/1.5436

rba1446
06-24-2008, 06:33 AM
The US Dollar was pretty much in a holding pattern ahead of Wednesday's FOMC statement. With no changes expected in the Fed's target rate, all eyes, or should I say ears, are on the statement at the conclusion of the meeting. The EUR/USD pair was basically ''net flat'' on the session, closing the session right around where it entered the session, 1.5520. In between, the EUR/USD hit a high of 1.5524, and a low of 1.5491 in thin trading.

USD/JPY pushed higher as the results of yesterday's poor BSI survey showed that all Japanese business sectors and business sizes had conditions deteriorate in the last quarter. The pair took off from the open near 107.83 and touched a high water mark of 108.21, before leveling off at the 108.10 level to ease out of the session. EUR/JPY made up some lost ground from the NY session, as it churned its way almost 50 pips higher than the open to top out at the 167.74 levels. As is usually the case recently, GBP/JPY mirrored the EUR/JPY move, opening near 211.90 and hitting a high of 212.40, before looking comfortable near 212.30 by the London open. A little over a year ago, this pair was trading at highs of 251.14. Amazing.

Most traders proceeded with caution, and it showed in the moves we saw in a few pairs, among them, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD. All of the previous were range-bound, with AUD/USD in a 25 pip range, GBP/USD in a 26 pip range, and NZD/USD in a 24 pip range respectively.

Look for traders to position themselves over the next few sessions in preparation of the FOMC statement that will be released on Wednesday in the NY session.

rba1446
06-24-2008, 08:24 AM
EURUSD

The Euro declined on yesterday, erasing its Friday gains against the dollar but managed to confirm the short term support into the 1.5470 zone. The modest recovery after testing bids into the 1.5475 zone has got our attention on the 1.5530 and 1.5550 levels which are aimed by the Euro at the time of this report. More ranging action is likely ahead of the Fed interest rate decision tomorrow. Potential rallies may find strong offers around 1.5630 and higher, at 1.5770 as strong resistance levels are noticed there. On the downside, below recent bottom at 1.5770-75 we notice good support around 1.5420 and lower at 1.5320. Intraday momentum is currently neutral while short term studies are slightly bullish and will remain so while the Euro holds above 1.5420, preferably above 1.5480 too. Current quote is 1.5544 @06:30 GMT

Support levels: 1.5500, 1.5475, 1.5420 and 1.5320.
Resistance levels: 1.5570, 1.5620, 1.5650, 1.5700 and 1.5770.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : slightly bullish

rba1446
06-24-2008, 08:25 AM
AUDUSD

Despite recent pullback, the Australian dollar maintains its bid tone above the .9500 mark and the upward channel is intact. Although short term sentiment favours gains towards .9600, downside risk is high and a potential break of .9500 may extend a decline towards .9440-50 on first phase then .9350 later. Key resistance is noticed at .9550 followed by .9565 and .9600. Current quote is .9526 @06:30 GMT

Support levels: .9500, .9490 and .9450.
Resistance levels: .9550, .9565, .9600 and .9630-50.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
06-24-2008, 08:27 AM
EURCHF

Key resistance into the 1.6250 zone will probably be tested soon and a potential break could accelerate a rally towards 1.6300 where next important resistance level is seen. Support starts at 1.6200 backed by 1.6160. Current quote is 1.6230 @06:30 GMT

Support levels: 1.6200, 1.6150-60, 1.6100 and 1.6070.
Resistance levels: 1.6250-65, 1.6300 and 1.6370.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
06-24-2008, 08:29 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY USD/CHF OUTLOOK

As dlr has risen after brief pullback, retain-
ing our bullishness for upmove fm 1.0304 to resume,
however, nr term o/bot condition shud prevent strg
rise beyond 1.0475 n risk fm there has increased
for a retreat later.

Trade fm long side with stop now as indicated,
break wud risk 1.0400 b4 up...

Rate: +1.0460+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 1.0422
Objective: 1.0460
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.0475/1.0521/1.0541
Support: 1.0410/1.0373/1.0333

rba1446
06-24-2008, 08:31 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK

As euro has remained under pressure, suggesting
nr term fall fm last week's 1.5652 top to retrace
recent upmove wud extend weakness to 1.5495/00, how
ever, o/sold condition shud limit downside to 1.54
63/67 n yield rebound later.

Turn short on recovery with stop as indicated,
only abv 1.5600 wud signal low has been formed...

Rate: +1.5500+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Short at 1.5535+
Objective: 1.5500
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.5595/1.5636/1.5652
Support: 1.5492/1.5463/1.5436

rba1446
06-24-2008, 08:32 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY USD/CHF OUTLOOK

As dlr has fallen after brief recovery to 1.03
70/72, suggesting decline fm 1.0475 wud resume for
re-test of 1.0319, however, nr term o/sold condi-
tion shud limit downside to 1.0303 n reckon 1.0270/
75 wud hold fm here.

Trade fm short side with stop as indicated, abv
wud risk correction to 1.0395/00 b4 down...

Rate: +1.0320+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 1.0361
Objective: 1.0320
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.0422/1.0440/1.0475
Support: 1.0319/1.0303/1.0250

rba1446
06-25-2008, 04:07 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK:

Although cable has retreated after intra-day
rise to 1.9704 n consolidation below there wud be
seen, break of 1.9645/50 is needed to signal top
has been formed there n bring weakness twds 1.9627,
otherwise, another rebound cannot be ruled out.

Abv said res wud bring stronger retrace. of
decline fm 1.9792 to 1.9720/25. Stand aside for now

Range Forecast
1.9665 / 1.9695

Resistance/Support
R: 1.9704/1.9725/1.9757
S: 1.9627/1.9585/1.9555

rba1446
06-25-2008, 07:28 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK:

Euro's retreat fm y'day's high at 1.5622 sug-
gests nr term 'erratic' rise fm 1.5468 has formed a
temp. top n range-trading below there is envisaged,
as long as minor sup at 1.5547 holds, consolidation
with upside bias remains for a subsequent rebound.

Incline to buy on dips for 1.5590/00 n only a
firm break of 1.5528 (prev. res) aborts bullishness

Range Forecast
+1.5550 / 1.5575+

Resistance/Support
R: 1.5596/1.5622/1.5636
S: 1.5547/1.5528/1.5492

rba1446
06-25-2008, 07:30 AM
EURUSD

EURUSD continues to trade within the established range of 1.5470 to 1.5620 consolidating ahead of Fed's rate decision later today. Although they are expected to leave rate unchanged at 2 percent, the policy statement will be focused as it may decide the dollar's next move and probably a break of the current range. Intraday support is now seen at 1.5550 backed by a stronger barrier at 1.5470-1.5480 and 1.5420 lower. On the upside, resistance starts at 1.5620 followed by 1.5700 and 1.5770. Short term studies are slightly bullish and a potential break above 1.5620-50 could extend gains towards the key resistance at 1.5770. On the other side, a break below 1.5470-80 could bring the lower support levels at 1.5420 and 1.5320 on focus. Current quote is 1.5555 @06:26

Support levels: 1.5540, 1.5470-80, 1.5420 and 1.5320.
Resistance levels: 1.5620, 1.5650, 1.5700 and 1.5770.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : slightly bullish

rba1446
06-25-2008, 07:31 AM
AUDUSD

The Australian dollar managed to break the intraday resistance into the .9550 zone formed by a downward trendline started at .9646 and next resistance is seen at .9620. Above .9620, strong resistance is formed by the recent multi-year highs into the .9640-50 zone. Support starts at .9530 backed by .9500 and .9460. Short term studies are bullish and a potential corrective move to .9500 or even .9460 won't affect the positive momentum. Upside remains favoured. Current quote is .9558 @06:26 GMT

Support levels: .9530, .9500, .9490 and .9450-60.
Resistance levels: .9600, .9620 and .9640-50.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
06-25-2008, 07:33 AM
EURCHF

Important resistance into the 1.6250 region is again eyed today and a potential break may accelerate a rally towards 1.6300 where next important resistance level is seen. Support starts at 1.6200 backed by 1.6160 which has been confirmed on yesterday's pullback. Current quote is 1.6215 @06:26 GMT

Support levels: 1.6200, 1.6150-60, 1.6100 and 1.6070.
Resistance levels: 1.6250-65, 1.6300 and 1.6370.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
06-25-2008, 07:35 AM
Dollar falls on weak housing prices and consumer confidence

The dollar fell on Tuesday as a drop in consumer confidence to a 16-year low (50.4 in June versus 57.2 the previous month) and declining home prices (-0.8% in April) raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to hike interest rates to stem inflation.

Euro and cable hit a session high of 1.5622 and 1.9725 earlier versus the dollar respectively after data showed that high prices sapped Americans' confidence in June and pushed expectations of future prosperity to an all-time low. The dollar rebounded versus Japanese yen from its session low at 107.31 but still closed slightly lower at 107.75. Against the Swiss franc, dollar dropped sharply to 1.0349 before rebounding as the currency benefited from market talk that Swiss bank UBS was a takeover target for HSBC.

The continued weakness in the U.S. economy should ease markets' expectations for rate increases this year. Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 35 percent chance the Fed will increase the target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point at its August meeting, down from 47 percent odds a week ago. The chance of an increase to 2.25 percent today is 10 percent, compared with 16 percent a week ago. Traders are focusing on the Fed’s post-meeting policy statement on Wednesday to see how the Fed assesses the balance of risks between inflation and growth.

On Wednesday, economic data releases include Japan CSPI and trade data, eurozone’s industrial orders, UK’s CBI distribution trade, US’s durable goods, new home sales and most importantly, the Fed rate decision.

rba1446
06-25-2008, 07:39 AM
The US Dollar was stuck in some small trading ranges this session as many traders waited for the outcome of the two day FOMC meeting on Wednesday in NY for clues as to what to do. Despite US consumer confidence hitting a 16 year low, housing prices dropping to record lows, and Asian stocks down for the fifth straight day, the markets were stagnant at best. A fine example would be EUR/GBP, which held a 4 pip range all session. Yes, a 4pip range.

EUR/USD was in a 14 pip range all session, with a high of 1.5575 and a low of 1.5561. I wish there was something further to add, but that was about the highlight of EUR/USD this session. In the upcoming London session, we'll see German CPI and Eurozone industrial orders. As well, ECB president Trichet will speak to the European Parliament at 8:30GMT.

USD/JPY was a bit more dramatic as it traded in a 20 pip range all session. The high of that pair was 107.86 and the low was 107.66. Traders continued to adjust their positions ahead of not only the FOMC but the July 1st Tankan as well. EUR/JPY was in a 20 pip range, but was looking strong as the London session got underway. 167.91 was the high as of this writing.

The point I would like to stress is that the FOMC statement will point the way for the FX markets. If the Fed comes out with a message that downplays current inflationary woes we could see the Dollar get decimated. However, if the Feds tone seems to favor containing inflation and even hints of future rate hikes, we could see the Dollar take off. The pressure is on the Fed, as it must walk the tightrope between slow growth and increasing inflation, and choose the lesser of two evils....The tricky part is how to word the statement in order to contain the impending chaos that could be unleashed with the drop of a single word.


Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session):
25-Jun UK Nat'wide House prices sa (MoM) JUN -2.50% -1.00%
25-Jun UK Nat'wide House prices nsa(YoY) JUN -4.40% -6.40%
25-Jun GE Consumer Price Index (YoY) JUN P 3.00% 3.30%
25-Jun GE CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) JUN P 0.70% 0.30%
25-Jun GE Consumer Price Index (MoM) JUN P 0.60% 0.30%
25-Jun 8:00 FR ECB's Noyer Presents 2007 Bank of France Annual Report 25-Jun
25-Jun 10:00 UK U.K. CBI June Distributive Trades Report 25-Jun
25-Jun 11:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 20-Jun -8.80% - -
25-Jun 11:00 UK Brown Answers Weekly Questions in House of Commons 25-Jun
25-Jun 11:45 GE Georgia's Saakashvili, Merkel Hold Briefing in Chancellery 25-Jun

rba1446
06-25-2008, 07:43 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY AUD/USD OUTLOOK:

A$ has traded narrowly but with a firm undertone
, suggesting as long as initial sup 0.9546 (react-
ion low) holds, recent 'erratic' upmove shud resume
n abv y'day's high at 0.9587 wud encourage for gain
twd 0.9600 b4 correction occurs later today.

Incline to raise long entry for this move n only
below 0.9530 wud abort intra-day bullishness...

Range Forecast
0.9560 / 0.9580

Resistance/Support
R: 0.9587/0.9600/0.9655
S: 0.9530/0.9493/0.9452

rba1446
06-25-2008, 07:44 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY EUR/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK

As euro's retreat after intra-day rise to 168.38
suggests a temp. top has possibly been made, conso-
lidation with downside bias is seen twds 167.62 but
break is needed to confirm, yield correction twds
167.31 b4 prospect of a rebound.

Turn short with stop as indicated, abv wud risk
one more upmove twds 168.55/60...

Rate: +167.80+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Short at 168.20+
Objective: 167.80
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 168.38/168.50/168.80
Support: 167.62/167.31/166.99

rba1446
06-25-2008, 07:46 AM
UPDATE

DAILY EUR/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK

Although euro has retreated after marginal rise
to 168.25 n consolidation is envisaged, as long as
167.28/31 holds, recent upmove shud resume for a
re-test of said lvl, abv wud extend gain to 168.50
but daily res at 169.05 shud remain intact.

Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, break
wud risk stronger correction to 166.87...

Rate: +168.25+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 167.65
Objective: 168.25
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 168.25/168.50/169.05
Support: 167.62/167.31/166.87

rba1446
06-25-2008, 07:47 AM
UPDATE

EUROPEAN CLOSING EUR/JPY OUTLOOK

Euro's rebound after finding renewed buying at
167.61/62 suggests pullback fm 168.25 has possibly
ended there n consolidation with upside bias wud be
seen, however, a rise abv 168.25 needed to confirm
recent upmove has once again resumed to 168.50.

Trade fm long side with stop as indicated,
break wud risk stronger retrace. to 167.31...

Rate: +168.15+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 167.75
Objective: 168.15
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 168.25/168.50/169.05
Support: 167.62/167.31/166.87

rba1446
06-26-2008, 01:01 AM
UPDATE

USD/JPY

Range Forecast
107.70 / 108.00


Resistance/Support
R: 107.99/108.24/108.42
S: 107.66/107.36/107.11

rba1446
06-26-2008, 01:03 AM
UPDATE

EUR/USD

Range Forecast
1.5655 / 1.5685

Resistance/Support
R: 1.5687/1.5701/1.5735
S: 1.5622/1.5585/1.5537

rba1446
06-26-2008, 01:06 AM
UPDATE

USD/CHF

Range Forecast
1.0342 / 1.0370

Resistance/Support
R: 1.0377/1.0400/1.0450
S: 1.0342/1.0304/1.0288

rba1446
06-26-2008, 01:09 AM
UPDATE

GBP/USD

Range Forecast
1.9730 / 1.9760


Resistance/Support
R: 1.9770/1.9792/1.9801
S: 1.9720/1.9704/1.9655

rba1446
06-26-2008, 01:10 AM
EURO
The euro came off vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5535 level and was capped around the $1.5615 level. Most traders expect the Federal Open Market Committee will keep the overnight call rate unchanged at 2.00% today and signal that inflation poses more of a threat than a slowdown in economic growth. Some traders believe the FOMC will move rates higher this year while others believe the Fed will take a wait-and-see approach before adjusting borrowing costs. The Fed is also expected to acknowledge the beleaguered U.S. housing sector, ongoing credit market dislocations, and weakness in the employment sector. Data released in the U.S. today May durable goods orders unchanged m/m and off 0.1% y/y while the ex-transportation component was of 0.9% m/m. Also, May building permits were revised to -0.4% from -1.3% and May new home sales were off 2.5% to a 512,000 unit annualized pace. In eurozone news, the European Central Bank announced it will hold a press conference after its 7 August Governing Council meeting. The ECB traditionally holds a telephone conference after some summer rate-setting meetings and this has led to speculation that the presumed +25bps rate hike to 4.25% in July will not be a one-off move. ECB’s Wellink reported Dutch inflation may top 3% in Q3 while ECB President Trichet reiterated he does not “envisage a series of increases (in official interest rates).” ECB’s Noyer reported “Issuance of credit remains dynamic and there is no concrete threat of a (further) credit crunch.” Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-15 April factory orders up 2.5% m/m and 11.7% y/y, the fastest growth pace in six months. Euro bids are cited around the $1.5230 level.

rba1446
06-26-2008, 01:12 AM
JPY / CNY
The yen depreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the 108.05 level and was supported around the 107.65 level. Traders continued to buy U.S. dollars ahead of today’s interest rate decision from the Federal Open Market Committee. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from 108.55 to 107.10. Data released in Japan today saw the May merchandise trade surplus shrink for the third consecutive month, printing at 365.61 billion and off 7.6% y/y. Traders are curious to see how these data impact the April – June GDP data that are due in early August. Other data released last night saw the May corporate services price index climb +0.2% m/m and 0.6% y/y, the eighteenth consecutive monthly increase. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.14% to close at 13,829.92. Dollar bids are cited around the 103.00/ 101.35 levels. The euro moved higher vis--vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the 168.45 level and was supported around the 167.60 level. The British pound and Swiss franc appreciated vis--vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the 213.20 and 103.95 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8653 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8699 and the pair’s lowest close since the yuan revaluation of July 2005. It was reported that China’s foreign reserves totaled US$ 1.76 trillion at the end of April.

rba1446
06-26-2008, 01:14 AM
STERLING
The British pound came off vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9660 level and was capped around the $1.9745 level. Sterling could not maintain intraday gains notched after it was reported that the CBI June retail sales survey found 39% of respondents said H1 June sales were lower than one year ago while 30% indicated they improved, for an ensuing net balance of -9% - up from -14% in May and better than expected. These data suggest retail sales remain relatively weak. Bank of England Deputy Governor Gieve reported he expects a “downturn in economic activity over the rest of the year.” On the political front, London’s High Court rejected a legal move to force the British government to hold a referendum on the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9360/ 1.9100 levels. The euro moved higher vis--vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.7920 level and was supported around the ₤0.7890 level.

rba1446
06-26-2008, 01:16 AM
SWISS
The Swiss franc depreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0435 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0375 level. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.0250 level. The euro moved higher vis--vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.6235 level while the British pound moved lower vis--vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 2.0470 level.

rba1446
06-26-2008, 01:18 AM
The FOMC came and went and in the end the greenback was only markedly lower against the euro out of all the majors, and even then the total open to close move in the NY session for EUR/USD was a lackluster 80 pips. And so the range trading continues.

The Fed's statement trumped early economic data releases out the US in the form of durable goods and new home sales for May. Both metrics were bang on expectations --durables orders flat after declining 1.0% the prior month while new home sales fell 2.5% after a 4.8% increase in April -- and thus elicited minimal market reaction.

The reaction to the FOMC statement was happily in line with our view. The USD was initially bid as the Fed turned up their hawkish tone on inflation while noting that economic risks have diminished somewhat. However, the FOMC disappointed in that it did not offer up a clear signal that they are decidedly ready to move rates higher any time soon. This realization led to USD selling through the balance of the NY session.

EUR/USD opened the session near 1.5585 and plunged to a post FOMC low near the 1.5540 mark. The pair would rally all the way back and then some as the market further digested the FOMC communique and would close near the session highs around the 1.5668 level.

Price action in other USD crosses was less inspiring. USD/JPY opened near 107.96 and was sitting near 107.81 at the close -- a 15 pip open-to-close move. The pair did go as high as 108.40 on the post FOMC knee-jerk reaction, but subsequently plunged to just below 107.70 upon further market reflection. Speaking of small moves, GBP/USD saw an even smaller open to close change of about 12 pips. Sterling opened the session near 1.9740 and was trading around 1.9752 at the end of NY trading.

We now look to initial jobless claims out of the US tomorrow (0830ET) to either confirm the buck's weakness or potentially push us back to pre FOMC levels. The market expects a 375k result and anything approaching 350k should send the greenback higher. 1Q US GDP final is also due up though this is likely to be a non-event as the components of this metric are all now baked in the cake.


Upcoming Economic Data Releases (Asia Session):
6/25 22:45 NZ Current Account Balance 1Q -3.410B -1.670B
6/25 22:45 NZ Account Deficit-GDP Ratio 1Q -7.90% -7.50%
6/26 0:00 AU Conference Board Leading Index APR -0.40% - -
6/26 1:00 NZ Debt Management Office Reports Result of Government Bond Sale
6/26 1:30 AU Job vacancies MAY -2.50% - -
6/26 JN BOJ Board Member Nakamura to Speak in Asahikawa City 25-Jun

rba1446
06-26-2008, 01:20 AM
Dollar falls as Fed fails to give hawkish rate signal

The dollar fell to a two-week low versus the euro after the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold key interest rate unchanged at 2 percent on Wednesday, with the FOMC statement failing to give a strong enough signal that the Federal Reserve will start reversing the most aggressive series of rate cuts in two decades.

The Fed's statement stated that although concerns about inflation remain high, price pressures are expected to moderate this year. The European currencies strengthened against the dollar as traders eased their expectation that the U.S. central bank will raise the target lending rate by a quarter-percentage point in September whist the European Central Bank has flagged a rate hike next month due to surging energy and food prices.

Dollar dropped from a session high at 108.44 to 107.66 and from 1.0450 to 1.0342 versus the Japanese yen and Swiss franc respectively after the Fed statement. It also retreated to 1.5687 and 1.9770 against the euro and British pound respectively around New York closing. The Japanese yen weakened against the euro and touched 169.16, the weakest since the 15-nation currency's debut in 1999.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 21 percent chance the central bank will hold the target rate for overnight lending between banks steady at the September meeting, compared with 10 percent odds yesterday. There's a 67 percent chance the Fed will sustain borrowing costs at the next meeting in August.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues refreshed their forecasts at their two-day meeting, reporting that the economy continues to expand. At the same time, crude oil prices have almost doubled in the past year and the cost of commodities from wheat to tin jumped to unprecedented levels.

On Thursday, economic data releases include New Zealand current account, German import price index, U.S. GDP data, PCE, weekly jobless claims, personal consumption, existing home sales and Midwest manufacturing.

rba1446
06-26-2008, 07:31 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK:

Dlr's o/n selloff fm 108.42 following the FOMC's
'not-so-hawkish' statement suggests choppy trading
inside 107.11-108.59 wud continue n downside bias
is seen for weakness to 107.60/65 n possibly twds
previous sup at 107.36.

Sell on recovery with stop as indicated, abv wud
defer n risk possible re-test of 108.42/44...

Range Forecast
+107.80 / 108.05+

Resistance/Support
R: 107.99/108.24/108.42
S: 107.66/107.36/107.11

rba1446
06-26-2008, 07:32 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK:

Cable's retreat fm after y'day's rally to 1.9770
suggests further consolidation below there is in
store n correction of this week's erratic rise fm
1.9585 to 1.9695/00 cannot be ruled out b4 prospect
of a rebound later.

Buy on dips but abv 1.9745/50 is needed to bring
a re-test of 1.9770. Below 1.9675 risks 1.9655/60..

Range Forecast
1.9715 / 1.9745

Resistance/Support
R: 1.9770/1.9792/1.9801
S: 1.9720/1.9704/1.9655

rba1446
06-26-2008, 07:35 AM
Today is the big day. In a few hours everyone will be tuning in for a first-hand report on the latest Federal Open Market Committee rate decision. All the FOMC meetings seem increasingly important, but it’s those similar to today’s meeting, where officials could POTENTIALLY change policy direction, that really get the market riled up.


The last three FOMC decisions, albeit all decisions to cut rates, actually sent the dollar rallying in the trading sessions that followed. And even though a rate hike today is unlikely, this meeting has the potential to send the dollar rallying again.

It seems that the dollar could only suffer in the wake of today’s meeting, and the several days that follow, if the FOMC statement severely disappoints. (Keep in mind the market has built up its expectations for hawkishness.)


But when all the dust has settled, we think the difference maker is going to be the European Central Bank. The dollar will likely bounce all over the place when the FOMC decision is released today, but not until the ECB’s next rate decision (July 3rd) will the dollar be able to stick to a longer-term direction.


We grabbed the following chart from the European Central Bank website just to give you an idea what they’re dealing with ...

rba1446
06-26-2008, 07:37 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY AUD/USD OUTLOOK

Aussie's rebound after holding abv indicated sup
at 0.9530/32 suggests upside bias is seen for gain
to 0.9587, abv wud signal recent upmove has resumed
n extend to 0.9600 but loss of momentum shud limit
upside n reckon 0.9615/20 wud hold.

Buy with stop at 0.9530, break wud defer bullish
ness n risk weakness twds 0.9510/15...

Rate: +0.9590+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 0.9555+
Objective: 0.9590
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.9600/0.9655/0.9700
Support: 0.9530/0.9493/0.9452

rba1446
06-26-2008, 07:38 AM
UPDATE

DAILY EUR/GBP CROSS OUTLOOK

Despite near term sideways trading below 0.7929,
as long as intra-day sup at 0.7892 holds, mild up-
side bias remains for upmove fm 0.7849 to resume n
extend gain to 0.7945, however, as outlook is conso
lidative, reckon 0.7955 res wud hold.

Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, break
wud risk 0.7865 but 0.7849 shud remain intact...

Rate: +0.7945+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 0.7905
Objective: 0.7945
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.7955/0.7966/0.7998
Support: 0.7892/0.7870/0.7849

rba1446
06-26-2008, 07:41 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY EUR/GBP CROSS OUTLOOK

Euro's rebound after meeting buying interest at
0.7892 suggests pullback fm 0.7929 has ended there,
re-test of said res is envisaged n break wud signal
upmove fm 0.7849 has resumed n extend twds 0.7947/
55 b4 prospect of a retreat due to o/bot condition.

Buy with stop as indicated, below wud prolong
choppy consolidation but 0.7892 shud remain intact.

Rate: +0.7945+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Long at 0.7925+
Objective: 0.7945
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.7955/0.7966/0.7998
Support: 0.7892/0.7870/0.7849

rba1446
06-27-2008, 01:04 AM
UPDATE

EUR/USD

Resistance levels: 1.5750/1.5800/1.5840
Support levels: 1.5630/1.5580/1.5540/1.5470
EUR/USD has risen further up to 1.5750 our next up target earlier today exactly as it was suggested Today focus will be on US GDP Numbers at 12:30 GMT The consensus is at 0.9% The break 1.5680-85 yesterday highs area may move price higher beyond 1.5750 towards 1.5800 and 1.5840 if the number comes out at 0.6% or lower On the other side, if the number comes out at 1.2% or stronger, pullback down to 1.5685-80 region is likely to be seen after the event and 1.5630 over the next trading sessions
Strategy-neutral

rba1446
06-27-2008, 01:05 AM
UPDATE

GBP/USD

Resistance levels: 1.9850/1.9900/1.9960
Support levels: 1.9760/1.9700/1.9620
GBP/USD has hold above 1.9700 , rebounding heavily beyond 1.9800 and 1.9850 our up targets earlier today Weak US GDP numbers may move price further higher towards 1.9960-65 area over the next trading sessions On downside, first Support comes at 1.9760 ahead of 1.9700 key one Stronger than expected US GDP numbers may cause pullback down to 1.9770-60 area over today and tomorrow
Strategy-neutral.

rba1446
06-27-2008, 01:08 AM
UPDATE

USD/JPY

Resistance levels: 108.20/108.60/109.00
Support levels: 107.80/107.10/106.50
USD/JPY has eased below 107.80 earlier today On downside, the break below 107.80 may turn the bias into negative for test back to 107.10 later today and even 106.50 over today and tomorrow on soft US data in few minutes First crucial Support comes in the 107.10-00 area On the other side, stronger than expected GDP data from USA may reverse price back towards 108.20 later today
Strategy-neutral

rba1446
06-27-2008, 01:11 AM
UPDATE

USD/CHF

Resistance levels: 1.0350/1.0400/1.0500
Support levels: 1.0270/1.0220/1.0150
USD/CHF has broken below 1.0310-00 previous crucial Support area earlier today exactly as it was suggested in our previous report The bias remains negative for test of 1.0220 later today on weak data from USA and 1.0150 in mid term On the other side, stronger than expected US GDP numbers may cause pullback up towards 1.0350 first Resistance after the event In longer term, however, a break above 1.0400 again is needed to confirm reversal in the bias and test towards 1.0500
Strategy-neutral.

rba1446
06-27-2008, 01:13 AM
UPDATE

EUR/JPY

Resistance levels: 169.50/170.00/170.40
Support levels: 168.90/168.00/167.10
The Cross has risen further beyond 169.00 our up target over the last trading sessions as it was suggested, reaching new record highs at 169.46 Price has hold above 168.90 first Support earlier today No change in our view. The uptrend remains intact for further upmove towards 170.00 in mid term First Resistance comes near 169.50 record highs On downside, below 168.90 first Support may cause pullback down to 168.00 over today and tomorrow
Strategy-neutral.

rba1446
06-27-2008, 01:15 AM
The Federal Reserve is sounding the alarm on inflation without committing to raise interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark rate at 2 percent yesterday and said ``upside risks'' to prices have picked up. The statement also said consumer spending is ``firming,'' while acknowledging that rising energy prices will curb growth into 2009. ``It is a baby step in the direction of raising rates,'' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut. The central bankers signaled ``they are not expecting to tighten in the near term. That is as far as they are willing to go,'' he said. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues stopped short of specifying that inflation was a greater concern than growth. They reiterated language from their April meeting that the Fed will ``act as needed'' to promote both economic expansion and stable prices. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.5656 as of 7:30 am, GMT.

The credit crisis which was sparked by U.S. mortgage defaults caused almost $400 billion in write-downs at the world's largest banks and securities firms in the past year. Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service have tightened credit-rating measures, making it more difficult for companies to borrow money which has lead to stagflation added to soaring energy prices the crisis is far from over.

The yen fell to a record low against the euro as the European Central Bank prepares to raise interest rates and Japanese workers look to use their summer bonuses to buy overseas assets offering higher yields. Japan's currency declined for a third day versus the 15- nation euro as traders forecast the ECB will increase interest rates next month as the Bank of Japan keeps its benchmark on hold. The dollar traded near the lowest in more than two weeks against the euro after the Federal Reserve gave no indication it will raise borrowing costs following yesterday's decision. EUR/JPY currently trading at 169.18, USD/JPY trading at 108.11 as of 7:59 am, GMT.

In regards to the euro, Traders believe that a euro advance may stall at $1.5726 against the dollar, said Yuji Saito, head of foreign- exchange sales at Societe Generale SA, citing charts traders use to predict price movements. The so-called resistance level of $1.5726 represents the upper side of a Bollinger band with a 21-day moving average, said Tokyo-based Saito. Resistance is a level where sellers are expected to outweigh buyers.

rba1446
06-27-2008, 01:25 AM
The Dollar extended its losses against the majors today following yesterday’s less hawkish FOMC statement, which pared market expectations of a near term interest rate hike and weighed on investor sentiment. EUR/USD was at 1.5733 from 1.5585 yesterday and GBP/USD was at 1.9860 from 1.9718 yesterday. USD/JPY was at 107.55 versus 107.97 yesterday.

rba1446
06-27-2008, 01:32 AM
EURO
The euro appreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5750 level and was supported around the $1.5630 level. The common currency reached its highest level since 9 June as traders reduced their long U.S. exposure following the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision yesterday to hold the federal funds target rate unchanged at 2.00%. The FOMC was not as hawkish as many dealers had expected and many traders do not believe the Fed will raise interest rates any earlier than December. The FOMC reported “Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.” Notably, Dallas Fed President Fisher voted for a hike in rates. Data released in the U.S. today saw May existing home sales up 2.0% to an annualized 4.99 million pace. Also, final Q1 GDP growth was upwardly revised to 1.0%, the latest evidence that the U.S. economy avoided recession at the beginning of the year. Other data saw weekly initial jobless claims remain unchanged at 384,000 while continuing jobless claims were up 82,000 to 3.139 million. In eurozone news, German provisional consumer price inflation data for June will be released tomorrow. Data released in the eurozone today saw May M3 money supply growth of 10.5% y/y, unchanged from April’s result. Also, German May import prices were up 2.4% m/m and 7.9% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the $1.5230 level.

rba1446
06-27-2008, 01:36 AM
JPY / CNY
The yen appreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the 107.15 level and was capped around the 108.15 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from 102.65 to 108.55. Bank of Japan Policy Board member Nakamura reported inflationary risks have become more heightened this month. Most traders expect BoJ will keep its overnight call rate unchanged at 0.50% for several months. Prime Minister Fukuda announced measures to help Japanese businesses deal with the high price of oil. Japanese officials and their G8 counterparts will discuss elevated energy and food costs next month at the Group of Eight summit in northern Japan. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.05% to close at 13,822.32. Dollar bids are cited around the 103.00/ 101.35 levels. The euro came off vis--vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the 168.00 figure and was capped around the 169.45 level. The British pound and Swiss franc weakened vis--vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the 212.10 and 104.05 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan depreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8657 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8653.

rba1446
06-27-2008, 02:02 AM
STERLING
The British pound appreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9895 level and was supported around the $1.9715 level. The pair reached its highest level since 2 May. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee officials testified today and reported a rate hike was discussed at the June policy-setting meeting. BoE Governor King testified that his letter to Chancellor Darling that explained why inflation is more than 1.0% above the 2.0% inflation target was not intended to be dovish. MPC members Gieve, Tucker, Barker, and Besley testified they did not opt for a rate cut now because they wanted to evaluate how medium-term inflation risks developed. Policymakers view wage developments as being a critical determinant in future policymaking. Data released in the U.K. today saw Q1 business investment decline 1.8% q/q. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9360/ 1.9100 levels. The euro moved lower vis--vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.7910 level and was capped around the ₤0.7950 level.

rba1446
06-27-2008, 02:12 AM
SWISS
The Swiss franc appreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0220 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0390 level. The Swiss government reported it is expected to realize a budget surplus of CHF 1.4 billion in 2009. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.0135 level. The euro and British pound came off vis--vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6110 and CHF 2.0320 levels, respectively.

rba1446
06-27-2008, 02:14 AM
Dollar falls broadly on Fed outlook and slide in stock markets

The dollar dropped broadly on Thursday, nearing a three-week low against the euro, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 2 percent on Wednesday, dashing expectations of an imminent rate hike. With the contrast in the interest rate differential outlook between the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank over the coming months, the single currency was able to rise to near a three-week high at 1.5768 against the dollar. The euro also climbed to a record high at 169.47 versus the Japanese yen before tumbling to 168.01 due to risk aversion on the back of the slide in U.S. stock markets.

On the other side, fresh concerns about the U.S. banking sector and a sharp decline in U.S. stocks also weighed on the greenback. The Dow Jones industrial average index fell 358 points to 11453.42 and closed at the day-low, the lowest level since October 2006. Dollar weakened and dropped to a session low at 106.61 versus the Japanese yen just before the New York closing.

Cable climbed to 1.9895 (the highest since May 2) after BOE Governor Mervyn King said in his testimony before a parliamentary committee that U.K. inflation will probably exceed 4 percent in the coming months, whilst the Swiss franc strengthened to 1.0220 against the dollar.

Elsewhere, crude oil jumped to a record high above $140 a barrel as Libya threatened to cut production and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' president said prices may reach $170 by the summer. Investors buy commodities as a hedge against the dollar when inflation erodes the value of the U.S. currency.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed the chance of the Fed increasing the target rate for overnight lending at its next meeting on August 5 fell to 22 percent, from 36 percent yesterday and 44 percent a week ago. The balance of bets was for no rate change.

On Friday, economic data releases include New Zealand GDP and trade data, Japan unemployment rate, household spending, Tokyo and National CPI, industrial production and retail sales, eurozone’s current account, U.K. GDP data and current account, Switzerland KOF indicator, Canada PPI data, U.S. PCE data, personal income and spending, and University of Michigan survey.

rba1446
07-09-2008, 08:21 AM
USD/JPY

Update

Despite dlr's intra-day firmness after y'day's
cross-inspired rebound fm 106.25, near term loss of
momentum is expected to prevent strg gain beyond
Monday's high at 107.75 n reckon 108.00 wud limit
upside in Asia, yield retreat.

Stand aside n look to buy on pullback for day
trade as 106.70/80 shud contain weakness...

Range Forecast
107.30 / 107.55

Resistance/Support
R: 107.55/107.75/108.00
S: 106.93/106.71/106.25

rba1446
07-18-2008, 12:53 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK:

As dlr has continued to trade with a firm under
tone after y'day's cross-inspired rebound fm 103.77
, consolidation with upside bias is seen for a re-
tracement of decline to 105.35/40 but 105.66 (prev.
sup) wud hold due to nr term o/bot condition.

Buy on dips with stop as indicated, below wud
signal intra-day top is made n risk 104.50/55...

Range Forecast
+104.95 / 105.20+

Resistance/Support
R: 105.38/105.66/106.05
S: 104.57/104.16/103.77

rba1446
07-18-2008, 12:55 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK:

Euro has 'stabilised' after y'day's selloff to
1.5800 n minor consolidation is seen but as long as
1.5865 (prev. sup) holds, this week's decline fm
1.6040 shud extend to 1.5780/85 b4 prospect of a
rebound due to nr term loss of momentum.

Sell on recovery for 1.5810 or buy on next fall
for 1.5825. Abv 1.5865 signals low made, 1.5880/90.

Range Forecast
+1.5825 / 1.5855+

Resistance/Support
R: 1.5865/1.5898/1.5949
S: 1.5800/1.5765/1.5737

rba1446
07-18-2008, 12:56 AM
UPDATE

EUR/USD

Resistance levels: 1.5900/1.5950/1.6000/1.6040
Support levels: 1.5800/1.5760/1.5710
EUR/USD has fallen back towards 1.5800 levels earlier today Today focus will be on US Philly FED Index at 14:00 GMT The consenus is at -15. Use 10 points deviation The uptrend remains intact for retest of 1.6000 and 1.6035-40 area in mid term First Resistance stands near 1.5870 Above causes retest of 1.5950 over today and tomorrow On downside, below 1.5800 eases price further to 1.5760 later today
Strategy-neutral

rba1446
07-18-2008, 12:57 AM
UPDATE

GBP/USD

Resistance levels: 2.0080/2.0150/2.0200/2.0280
Support levels: 2.000/1.9960/1.9900/1.9840
GBP/USD has fallen to 1.9960 Support ( just a shy away from our target at 1.9940)) from our target over the last trading sessions as it was suggested in our previous reports No change in our view. The bias remains positive with next targets at 2.0200 and 2.0280 in mid term and 2.0400 in longer term First Resistance comes at 2.0080 ahead of 2.0150 previous highs . On downside, first strong Support comes at 1.9960 Below turns price back towards 1.9840 over the next trading days
Strategy-neutral.

rba1446
07-18-2008, 01:00 AM
UPDATE

USD/JPY

Resistance levels: 106.00/106.30/106.70/107.20
Support levels: 105.30/104.80/103.90/102.80
USD/JPY has risen towards 106.00 first target over the last trading sessions as it was suggested No change in our view. The beak above 105.00 is required to signal recovery towards 106.00 and 106.70 over the next trading sessions On downside, first Support comes near 105.30, however a break below 104.80 is needed for resuming the downmove back towards 103.90
Strategy-neutral.

rba1446
07-18-2008, 01:02 AM
UPDATE

USD/CHF

Resistance levels: 1.0250/1.0300/1.0350
Support levels: 1.0170/1.0140/1.0060/1.0000
USD/CHF has hold above 1.0140 first Support, moving higher above 1.0200 earlier today No change in our view. Below 1.0140 first Support turns price back into bearish territory towards 1.0060 and 1.0000 over the next trading days First minor Support stands near 1.0170 On the upside, as long as price holds above 1.0140 there are chances of further upmove towards 1.0240-50 area later today and 1.0300 in mid term
Strategy-neutral.

rba1446
07-18-2008, 01:09 AM
UPDATE

EUR/JPY

Resistance levels: 168.00/169.00/169.50
Support levels: 167.00/166.50/166.00/165.30
The Cross has risen further beyond 167.50 earlier today No change in our view. On the upside, the break above 166.80 may resume the uptrend towards 168.00 and 169.70 record highs First target is at 168.00 On downside, below 167.00 first immediate Support may cause pullback down to 166.50 before the next upwave towards 168.00
Strategy-neutral.

rba1446
07-18-2008, 06:55 AM
EURUSD

Solid intraday resistance into the 1.5890 region remained intact on yesterday but is attracting the Euro at the time of this report. Support is formed at 1.5825 backed by 1.5790/05 and 1.5750 lower. Important resistance follows 1.5990 at 1.5930 and a potential break may encourage further gains towards recent all-time high into the 1.6 zone. Despite yesterday's retreat into the higher part of the 1.57 zone, the upside remains on focus and daily sentiment is bullish. Current quote is 1.5865 @06:20 GMT

Support levels: 1.5825, 1.5790/05, 1.5750.
Resistance levels: 1.5890, 1.5930, 1.5950 and 1.6020/40.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : slightly bullish

rba1446
07-18-2008, 06:56 AM
AUDUSD

Recent pullback brings support into the .9670/80 region on focus but it should limit the downside for now. A potential break of .9670/80 may open .9550 where next key support is seen. Intraday sentiment is negative due to the slip below the .9740 mark. The Aussie has to break above .9750 in order to confirm a resume of the uptrend. Resistance follows .9750 at .9800 and .9850. Support starts at .9700 backed by the stronger barrier at .9670/80. Current quote is .9721 @06:20 GMT

Support levels: .9700, .9670/80 and .9640/50.
Resistance levels: .9750, .9800 and .9850.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
07-18-2008, 06:57 AM
EURCHF

Resistance into the 1.6210/15 region has limited the upside and current decline may bring support into the 1.6120 zone on focus. Below 1.6120 there is fib support at 1.6100 and 1.6075. Key medium term resistance into the 1.6210 region formed by the 200 MA and by a falling trendline forming a downward channel may remain intact and encourage yet another test of the downside into the 1.5980 region within the next days. Current quote is 1.6170 @06:20 GMT

Support levels: 1.6120/30, 1.6100 and 1.6075.
Resistance levels: 1.6210/15, 1.6240 and 1.6300.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : slightly bearish

rba1446
07-18-2008, 06:59 AM
USD surges as Oil dips below $130 per barrel
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained against most of the majors for the 2nd day as stocks continued to rebound off the year lows seen on Tuesday. Earning Reports from JP Morgan were better than expectations helping to boost financials. Crude Oil dipped below the key $130 level inspiring a modest USD rally. US data was marginally positive with Housing starts back above 1 million (1.066 actual vs. 0.960 expected) and Weekly Jobless claims gaining less than forecast at 360K. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 27 points (1.2%) and the Dow Jones was up 207 points (1.85%). Crude Oil closed down $4.69 ending the New York session at $129.91 per barrel.

The Euro (EUR) consolidated recent falls, trading in a range with rally’s capped by further falls in Oil. Large gains in the EUR/JPY supported. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5782 and a high of 1.5894 before closing the day at 1.5850 in the New York session. Looking ahead, we have June German PPI expected at 0.7% and the EU May Trade Balance is seen at 0.9 Billion.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold heavily as the carry trade roared back into life on positive equities gains. All the crosses made substantial gains especially the GBP/JPY. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 104.76 and a high of 107.11 before closing the day around 106.25 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) traded in a tight range pivoting the key 2.00 level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9949 and a high of 2.0073 before closing the day at 2.0020 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Public Sector net borrowing is seen at 7.4 Billion.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) Declined for the third day as Oil and Gold took another leg lower. Strong AUD/JPY buying supported and limited any Aussie weakness. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9678 and a high of 0.9791 before closing the day at 0.9725. Looking ahead, 2nd Quarter Export and Import prices seen at 10% and 1.7% respectively.

Gold (XAU) traded lower but managed to hold up well relative to Oil and other Commodities as the USD rallied. Overall trading with a low of USD$954.20 and high of USD$978.25 ending the New York session at USD$959 an ounce.

rba1446
07-23-2008, 05:25 AM
INTRA-DAY USD/CHF OUTLOOK:

Although cable has retreated after y'day's rally
to 2.0038 n minor consolidation below there wud be
seen, a break of 1.9993 (prev. res) is needed to
signal the erratic rise fm 1.9906 has formed a top
n extend weakness to 1.9960/70.

Abv said res wud extend marginal gain to 2.0045/
50 but 2.0073 shud cap upside. Stand aside for now.

Range Forecast
2.0000 / 2.0030

Resistance/Support
R: 2.0038/2.0073/2.0097
S: 1.9993/1.9934/1.9906

rba1446
07-23-2008, 05:26 AM
UPDATE

EURUSD

Recent climb past the 1.5885/90 initial resistance confirms the uptrend and important resistance at 1.5930/35 is on focus at the time of this writing. A potential break of the 1.5930/35 barrier may encourage a rally towards the 1.6 zone where next important resistance levels are seen at 1.6020 an 1.6050. The upside will remain on focus while intraday support into the 1.5880 region is intact. Stronger support is seen at 1.5840/50. Current quote is 1.5929 @06:40 GMT

Support levels: 1.5900, 1.5880, 1.5840/50 and 1.5780.
Resistance levels: 1.5930/35, 1.5950 and 1.6020/40.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
07-23-2008, 05:29 AM
UPDATE

AUDUSD

Interim support at .9740/45 is being tested again at the time of this writing, stronger support being formed around .9725 and into the .9665 region. Resistance starts at .9770 followed by .9790/00 and .9850. Short term studies are bullish while the intraday charts are slightly bearish. A break above .9770 resumes uptrend. Current quote is .9753 @06:40 GMT

Support levels: .9740/45 .9705, .9665/75 and .9640/50.
Resistance levels: .9770, .9800 and .9850.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
07-23-2008, 05:35 AM
UPDATE

EURCHF

Important resistance into the 1.6215/25 zone remains intact and a potential break may bring the 1.6300 resistance on focus. Intraday support starts at 1.6165 backed by 1.6110. Short term studies are bullish. Current quote is 1.6204 @06:40 GMT

Support levels: 1.6165, 1.6110 and 1.6080.
Resistance levels: 1.6215/25, 1.6240 and 1.6300.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

rba1446
07-23-2008, 05:57 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK:

Dlr's sideways trading below Friday's 106.99
high is likely to continue n although weakness twds
106.50/55 cannot be ruled out, reckon 106.25/27 wud
contain downside n yield rebound later but abv said
res is needed to signal upmove has resumed, 107.11.

Stand aside for now n buy on such dips for day
trade. Only below 106.25/27 prolongs choppy trading

Range Forecast
+106.50 / 106.80+

Resistance/Support
R: 106.99/107.11/107.50
S: 106.46/106.27/105.97

rba1446
07-29-2008, 01:20 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK:

Despite euro's retreat after rising to 1.5754,
subsequent rebound fm 1.5667 suggests consolidation
with mild upside bias wud be seen n gain twd 1.5730
/35 can't be ruled out, however, said res shud hold
on 1st testing.

Below 1.5663/67 wud signal recent decline has
possibly resumed instead, 1.5728. Stand aside...

Range Forecast
1.5675 / 1.5700

Resistance/Support
R: 1.5719/1.5754/1.5798
S: 1.5663/1.5628/1.5585

rba1446
07-29-2008, 01:22 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK:

Dlr's cross-inspired breach of last wk's high at
107.99 signals recent upmove fm 103.77 has resumed
n further gain to 108.30/35 is seen, however, near
term loss of momentum shud prevent strg move beyond
daily res at 108.59 in Asia.

Hold long with stop as indicated n only below
107.75 signals intra-day top is made, 107.45/50...

Range Forecast
107.85 / 108.15

Resistance/Support
R: 108.19/108.59/109.00
S: 107.75/107.45/107.19

rba1446
07-29-2008, 01:23 AM
UPDATE

EURUSD

Friday's minor recovery of the Euro doesn't suggest that an uptrend resume is underway as the resistance into the 1.5750 region could not be cleared and above 1.5750 there's key resistance also into the 1.5790 zone. A potential break above the second mentioned barrier will confirm the resume of the uptrend and bring the recent highs at 1.5900 and 1.5945 on focus. Support is currently formed at 1.5670 and 1.5625. The hourly studies are neutral at the time of this writing while the dailies are bearish. Current quote is 1.5695 @06:15 GMT

Support levels: 1.5670, 1.5625/30 and 1.5585
Resistance levels: 1.5750/60, 1.5790 and 1.5825.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bearish

Friday recommended trade: small long at 1.5690, initial stop at 1.5650, objective at 1.5740. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at 1.5720) if reached : +50 pips

rba1446
07-29-2008, 01:26 AM
AUDUSD

Previous key support into the .9570 failed to hold and the Aussie slipped towards the 61.8% retracement of the .9327-.9849 move at .9526. If support at .9526 holds, a pullback towards .9590 or .9650 will be possible during the upcoming sessions. Else, the Aussie may test bids into the medium term support zone at .9475. Both daily and hourly studies are bearish. Current quote is .9551 @06:15 GMT

Support levels: .9525, .9500 and .9475/80
Resistance levels: .9555, .9590 and .9650.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bearish

Friday recommended trade: small short at .9665, initial stop at .9700, objective at .9615. Adjust stop to breakeven on +30 pips (at .9635) if reached : 0 (entry not reached)

rba1446
07-29-2008, 01:48 AM
EURCHF

Resistance at 1.6300 still holds after 5 days since the initial test while support is formed at 1.6225 and lower, at 1.6160. Daily sentiment is bullish while intraday studies are slightly bearish at the time of this writing. Interim support at 1.6270 is on focus. Current quote is 1.6274 @06:15 GMT

Support levels: 1.6270, 1.6225 and 1.6160
Resistance levels: 1.6300 and 1.6375.
Market sentiment: long-term : bullish, mid-term : bullish, short-term : bullish

Friday recommended trade: stand aside

rba1446
07-29-2008, 02:51 AM
Comentary

EURO
The euro gained ground vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.5765 level and was supported around the $1.5685 level. Technically, todays intraday high was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.5610 to $1.6040. The common currency gained ground despite German economic data that saw the August GfK consumer climate index fall to 2.1, its lowest level since June 2004 and down from 3.6 in July. The greenback was also on the back foot following news on Friday that a couple more mortgage lenders are closing and a couple more banks may be in trouble. Other data released in Germany today saw July North-Rhine Westphalia July CPI up 0.6% m/m and 3.3% y/y. Germanys finance minister rejected a 10 billion economic stimulus proposal from the economy ministry. Germanys economy is clearly on a weakening path and traders are wondering if this will result in more pressure on the European Central Bank to reduce interest rates. July consumer confidence will be released tomorrow. Euro bids are cited around the $1.5585/ 1.5230 level.

rba1446
07-29-2008, 02:53 AM
Commentary

JPY / CNY
The yen appreciated vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the 107.55 level and was capped around the 108.05 level. The pair reached its highest level since 26 June before paring some intraday gains. The dollar pared gains after it was reported that Nigerian militants attacked an oil pipeline in that country. Japanese interest rates will remain low for quite some time and both the government and Bank of Japan have recently downwardly revised their GDP growth forecasts. Household spending and retail trade data will be released tonight. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.14% to close at 13,353.78. Dollar bids are cited around the 106.40 level. The euro moved higher vis--vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the 169.70 level and was supported around the 169.00 figure. The British pound and Swiss franc moved lower vis--vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the 213.70 and 103.75 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan fell sharply vis--vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8140 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8189. People’s Bank of China reiterated it plans to keep the yuan “basically stable” at a “balanced level.”

rba1446
07-29-2008, 02:57 AM
Commentary

STERLING
The British pound came off vis--vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.9840 level and was capped around the $1.9925 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw Hometrack July house prices off 1.2% m/m while Land Registry house prices for England and Wales were off 1.0% m/m in June. A KPMG survey reported more than half of U.K. workers plan to lay off workers in the coming months. These data follow last week’s disappointing retail sales numbers and a decline in Q2 GDP. Traders await the release of the Nationwide house price index and CBI retail survey. Dealers are paying attention to a report that Chancellor Darling may permit banks to swap mortgage assets for government bonds. Cable bids are cited around the $1.9360 level. The euro moved higher vis--vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.7930 level and was supported around the ₤0.7880 level.

rba1446
08-01-2008, 06:37 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK:

Usd's rebound after y'day's selloff fm 108.39 to
107.57 suggests further choppy trading wud be seen
in Asia but minor res at 108.15/20 shud limit up-
side n yield retreat, however, below said sup is
needed for correction of upmove to 107.30.

Abv 108.18 wud signal recent upmove has resumed
instead, bring re-test of 108.39 1st. Stand aside..

Range Forecast
107.70 / 108.00

Resistance/Support
R: 108.17/108.39/108.59
S: 107.57/107.30/107.00

rba1446
08-01-2008, 06:39 AM
UPDATE

INTRA-DAY USD/CHF OUTLOOK:

As cable has retreated after meeting selling at
1.9836/40, suggesting decline fm y'day's high at
1.9930 has resumed n below 1.9793 wud extend weak-
ness twds 1.9775/80, however, 1.9745 (this week's
low) shud hold on 1st testing.

Trade fm short side with stop as indicated, abv
wud prolong choppy trading n risk 1.9860/65...

Range Forecast
1.9800 / 1.9825

Resistance/Support
R: 1.9840/1.9863/1.9900
S: 1.9793/1.9776/1.9745