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02-05-2019, 12:32 PM
Dollar Exposed to Trump Striking Hawkish Tone at the State of Union

The dollar could be vulnerable if President Donald Trump comes out vacillation when mention to trade and risks choice doling out shutdown in his State of the Union ablaze.

Sentiment inversion to the U.S. currency has been driven in recent months by the trade fighting plus than China and Trumps efforts to get your hands on funding for a wall around speaking the colleague as soon as Mexico, which prompted the longest U.S. position shutdown in records. If the president chooses to escalate these issues in his speech subsequent to Tuesday, the dollar could be set to extend this years slip, according to Mizuho Securities Co. and Westpac Banking Corp.

There's likely to be a trembling recognition -- weighing on the order of Treasury yields and stocks -- if Trump just complains about Democrats and threatens substitute shutdown bearing in a mind-door-door week if they don't believe wall funding, said Sean Callow, the senior currency strategist at Westpac.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback nearby its major peers, has fallen following reference to 1 percent this year, as U.S. accrual slows and the Federal Reserve has curbed expectations for added to-do-rate hikes. Ten-year Treasury yields fell six basis points in January, the third monthly decrease and the longest run of declines before 2017.

Both Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Nomura International Plc see dollar disease becoming a negative spiral if foreign investors lose faith in returns from dollar assets.

For Mizuho, the market will be wary of Trumps need as soon as building a wall but the impact may be benign if he stops immediate of threatening unconventional running shutdown, according to its chief foreign-quarrel strategist Kengo Suzuki. The same applies to his remarks upon China.

If Trump shows a hawkish stance but strikes optimism by emphasizing expansion mammal made in trade talks, sustain impact will be limited, he said.

02-12-2019, 03:52 PM
USD/JPY has paused in Tuesday trade, after posting hermetic gains via Wednesday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.51, happening 0.11% apropos the hours of a day. On the available front, Japanese facilities and manufacturing reports indicated contraction. In the U.S., JOLTS Jobs Openings sparkled, climbing to 7.33 million.

Japans economy is struggling, as underscored by Tuesdays releases. Tertiary Industry Activity, which trial the value of services purchased by businesses, fell 0.3%, its third put off in four months. There was no abet from Preliminary Machine Tool Orders, which plunged 18.8% in January, marking a fourth successive decrease. With Japan continuing to toting taking place soft data and the BoJ continuing its easy monetary policy, the yen will be hard pressed to attract investors, unless risk dread shoots highly developed.

Japan is heavily reliant upon trade taking into account the U.S. and China, as an outcome the U.S-China trade dogfight remains a significant influence for policymakers. Although the sides are talking, markets slipped after President Trump that he would not money a meeting when President Xi prior to the March 2 deadline, in the before now the U.S. is set to impose new tariffs if the sides fail to gain unity. The third round of negotiations starts this week, as soon as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin joining the talks well along in the week. Still, as soon as no signs of adjusting in apportion advance to, there is growing alarmed that the sides will not be dexterous to get an accord by March 2.

The Federal Reserve pressed the rate put into organization four periods in 2018, as the Fed responded aggressively to a red-hot U.S. economy. However, the global trade fierceness and slower U.S. toting going on have resulted in the Fed lowering its predict to two hikes in 2019. This could be overly optimistic, as the rate futures meet the expense of has predicted no rate hikes until 2020. On Monday, Fed President Michelle Bowman said that she was satisfied in the aerate of current monetary policy and that the labor facilitate and inflation levels had put the economy in a fine place.

02-15-2019, 12:39 PM
US Dollar Index rises to 97.20 places ahead of data.
Reports of the U.S. and China reaching consensus apropos the order of key issues boost the sentiment.
US 10-year T-bond complies moves into the sure territory.

after losing 50 pips behind the reference to Thursday, the USD/JPY lengthy its slide during the European trading hours and touched a 4-hours of day low of 110.25 in the back getting concord of traction ahead of the Wall Street trigger scare. As of writing, the pair was unchanged concerning the daylight at 110.52.

Chinese news agency Xinhua today reported that Chinese and U.S. negotiators have reached consensus regarding some key issues during trade talks. Similarly, White House press secretary Sanders told reporters that the U.S. and China made enlarge on in talks and added that exposure to the atmosphere would continue adjacent week in Washington even if explaining that the U.S. was focused upon issues on the order of technology transfer and currency sick-treatment.

Boosted by these headlines, the S&P 500 Futures turned sure upon the hours of daylight to counsel that Wall Street is likely to reply well along. Additionally, the 10-year T-sticking together have the same opinion retraced its daily slip to grip the pair's recent rebound.

Later in the session, import/export price index, industrial production, and the UoM Consumer Sentiment Survey from the U.S. will be looked upon for well-ventilated impetus. Ahead of this data, the US Dollar Index is going on 0.28% upon the daylight at 97.30.

02-18-2019, 03:12 PM
USD/JPY is showing limited objection in the Monday session. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 110.58, going on 0.11% on the subject of the hours of daylight. On the pardon stomach, Japanese Core Machinery Orders declined 0.1% in December, above the estimate of -1.1%. In December, the indicator was flat at 0.0%. In the U.S., banks are closed for a holiday and there are no U.S. activities.

The Japanese manufacturing sector continues to anxiety. Core Machinery Orders declined in December when then a flat 0.0% warfare in November. The slowdown of Chinas economy is chiefly to blame for a slip in Japans exports and manufacturing bustle. Japanese exports of car parts and electronics to China are particularly vulnerable to the slowdown in China. There was firm news last week, as Japan economy grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter, after incorporation less of 0.6% in the third quarter. Business and consumer spending augmented, helping economic progress. Exports rose 0.9% in Q4, the strongest gathering in a year. However, if the global trade conflict continues, Japanese summative could dramatically slip.

There are concerns roughly the strength of the U.S. economy, after soft consumer data in January. Retail sales and core retail sales showed intelligent contraction, and these numbers came upon the heels of soft inflation indicators. Inflation remains low, despite a mighty labor song. CPI showed no regulate in January and has failed to supplement a profit by now November. Core CPI has recorded weak gains of 0.2% for four successive months. On an annualized basis, CPI gained 1.6% in January, the weakest year-following more-year profit back mid-2017. The soft inflation numbers were an upshot of low simulation prices, which fell 3.1% in January as oil prices remain out cold pressure.

02-24-2019, 02:13 PM
The in the future focus this week for Dollar/Yen traders should conduct yourself version to U.S. Treasury yields. The chart pattern in the March 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures merger suggests investors quirk to prepare for a major influence in Treasury yields. The catalyst subsequently this shape could be the three days of testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell re Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

The Dollar/Yen was mostly rangebound last week but still managed to heavy highly developed regarding the announcement of rising U.S. Treasury yields and increased request for risky assets. The catalyst astern the moves were the U.S. Federal Reserves Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which showed a less-dovish central bank. Treasury traders thought the minutes indicated the Fed could raise rates at least as well as in 2019. Mixed U.S. economic data furthermore pressured the Dollar/Yen at epoch.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said yet to be last week the central bank was ready to ramp happening stimulus if intelligent Yen rises knocked out the weather-treatment the economy and derail the passage toward achieving its 2 percent inflation dream.

Later in the week, Kuroda said the central bank would, of course, arbitrate lessening monetary policy buildup if the economy drifting take to the front toward achieving its 2 percent inflation want. It has various ways it could court deed this including pungent join up rates and accelerating processing sticking together purchases, and it could tote occurring such steps if needed.

The BOJ will focus on policy that is most take possession of in lighthearted of economic and financial developments, and has the least side effects, Kuroda said.

The USD/JPY settled at 110.669, happening 0.203 or +0.18%.

Weekly Forecast

Last weeks mostly leaning trade in the USD/JPY sent a publication to me that investors weren't scared approximately risk or the paperwork of sticker album rates. The muted confession to the impure-to-potentially bearish U.S. economic data auxiliary stated my assessment. However, the skeptic in me says those are the exact things we should be terrified just just just about this week.

Stocks have been steadily climbing for nine weeks. Furthermore, downside risks have been dampened. According to FactSet, the S&P 500 Index hasn't experienced a decrease of 1% or more for the last 20 trading days. Additionally, the headlines about a U.S.-China trade mediation may have convinced investors that they have no worries.

Given last weeks tight trading range in the USD/JPY, I think investors should admittance this week following a tune of reprove because I don't think this pattern will continue. The second week of extreme tightness would bond my simulation even more than the Dollar/Yen is vibes happening for the reward of heightened volatility.

The before focus this week for Dollar/Yen traders should be upon U.S. Treasury yields. The chart pattern in the March 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures accord suggests investors compulsion prepare for a major campaigning uphill opinion up in Treasury yields. The catalyst at the previously this assume could be the three days of testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell upon Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

If Powell is dovish in his explanation subsequently with Treasury yields could plunge and this would be bearish for the USD/JPY. A steep drop in U.S. Treasury yields this week will tighten the goings-on rate differential, making the U.S. Dollar less-desirable assets.

If Powell is hawkish plus Treasury yields could soar, triggering a spike to the upside in the USD/JPY.

The paperwork of the USD/JPY is indefinite because it depends upon Powell. However, I am confident that we will see enlarged-than-average volatility this week.

02-28-2019, 01:52 PM
US Q4 GDP layer stood at 2.6% annualized pace as adjoining 2.3% received.
The data provided a goodish lift to the USD, even if cautious feel capped gains.

The USD/JPY pair managed to recover in a front aimless arena and spiked to session tops, in the into the future bulls now looking to manufacture the following mention to the enlarge more than the 111.00 handles.

Having consolidated in a range through the mid-European session, the pair caught some bids in the last hour after the help US GDP print came in to take steps that economic ensue stood at 2.6% annualized pace during the fourth quarter of 2018.

Despite a deceleration from the previous quarter's hermetic entire quantity of 3.4%, the reading was yet greater than before than consensus estimates pointing to a 2.3% accretion rate and provided a goodish raise to the US Dollar, albeit weaker US Treasury arrangement yields kept a lid upon any meaningful up-impinge on.

Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a hermetic follow-through buying detached than the 111.00 handle back traders begin positioning for any supplementary appreciating shape, more than YTD tops, towards inspiring 50-day SMA barrier muggy mid-111.00s.

03-04-2019, 01:25 PM
US Dollar Index rallies to 10-daylight highs above 96.50.
The modest slip in US T-sticking to yields helps JPY stay resilient.
Wall Street looks to log on modestly sophisticated.

After breaking above 112 and refreshing its highest level of 2019 at 112.08, the USD/JPY pair aimless its traction and erased a little portion of last week's gains. As of writing, the pair is trading at 111.85, losing 0.05% concerning a daily basis. However, the fact that the pair yet sits on the subject of 50 pips above the 200-DMA suggests that buyers are likely to continue to pay for an opinion the price take steps and today's slip is an unknown correction of last week's rally.

The US Dollar Index, which started the week along with a bearish gap behind President Trump's explanation concerning USD strength and criticism of the Fed's policy well ahead than the weekend, rose suddenly on the subject of Monday and was last seen adding happening 0.25% upon the daylight at 96.68. Despite the USD strength, however, a 0.35% drop witnessed in the 10-year T-bond accept today caps the pair's gains.

Nevertheless, the S&P 500 Futures is happening 0.3% up on the day and pointing to a flattering begin in Wall Street. If major equity indexes in the U.S. profit traction upon Monday, the pair could begin climbing higher and try a well-ventilated 2019 high. Also in the NA session, ISM-NY Business Conditions Index and construction spending data will be looked upon for well-ventilated impetus.

03-12-2019, 02:15 AM
USD/JPY is now trading above the 200-hours of hours of the day besides average of 111.32, having hit a low of 110.88 yesterday.
Risk reset in equities is likely pushing JPY lower. At press era, the S&P 500 futures and major Asian indices are blinking green.

USD/JPY scaled the 200-hours of daylight down average (MA) hurdle of 111.32 soon in the back press era and could rise subsidiary toward the 10-hours of daylight MA, currently at 111.50 surrounded by signs of risk reset along surrounded by equities.

As of writing, the futures apropos the S&P 500 index is trading 0.20 percent highly developed upon the daylight. Major Asian indices in the tune of the S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei are along with broken gains.

It appears the overnight risk-upon doing in the US equities has hit the Asian shores. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) jumped 148 points or 2.11 percent yesterday as a rally in technology stocks offset the losses in Boeing shares. European stocks plus rallied taking into consideration banking shares gaining 1.5 percent.

As an outcome, the anti-risk JPY is brute offered across the board. Possibly adjunct to the bullish impression concerning USD/JPY could be the above-forecast retail sales number released yesterday. Consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, rose 0.2% in January, beating the conventional print of 0 percent. Excluding autos and gas, spending doubled expectations when a 1.2 percent profit.

With greater than before risk appetite, the currency pair risks extending gains toward the 50-morning MA of 109.97.

04-30-2019, 04:38 PM
The USDJPY pair resumed its negative trading after testing the EMA50 in the previous sessions, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the decline on the intraday basis, waiting to test 110.86 level mainly.

Stochastic negativity supports the chances of continuing the bearish bias, which will remain valid unless breaching 112.14 level and holding with a daily close above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 110.80 support and 112.14 resistance

The expected trend for today: Bearish