Morihoo Daily Forex Reports

[morihoo]

see every day forex reports here.

[morihoo]

EUR/USD Open 1.4363 High 1.4483 Low 1.4269 Close 1.4364
Euro/Dollar consolidated within the 1.4229 - 1.4580 range for the past 3 weeks, as seen on the 1 hour chart. We will be looking for a break out of the above range for clearer movement direction. The bullish scenario on Tuesday was interrupted by a turning downward impulse, but the current bearish momentum seems very limited for the time being. Current indications support bearish outlook in the short term, which is our preferable scenario for now too. If you think conservatively, you may prefer to stay away in this situation, but if your approach is more aggressive like me, you may use the situation to sell high and buy low. Break above the nearest resistance, represented by the 1.4483 top would confirm domination of the bulls with objectives towards 1.4582. Break bellow the first support at 1.4269 may trigger further downward impulse with potential test of 1.4165, followed by 1.4079. The CCI indicator is negative and leaning downwards on the 1 hour chart, suggesting insignificant bearish pressure.
Technical resistance levels: 1.4483 1.4582 1.4667
Technical support levels: 1.4269 1.4165 1.4079

Trading range: 1.4375 - 1.4310
Trend: Downward
Sell at 1.4361 SL 1.4391 TP 1.4321

[morihoo]

USD

The US Dollar recouped some of its losses from the previous session in Tuesday trading and was mixed overall. Traders were talking about the ADP jobs report which comes out on later on today and is estimated to show that more jobs were created than lost in December, the first time in two years that this would have occurred. Should the data prove to be accurate, it could lead to a February interest rate hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Dollar supporters agree that this year could be particularly difficult for the Greenback. With looming debt crisis, a fledgling real estate market that is increasing foreclosures even with the stimulus funds and a 10% unemployment rate that will likely remain high through at least the third quarter. It is for this reason that any glimmer of hope for an interest rate hike garners positive attention. The ADP jobs report will be followed by Friday�s non-farm payroll, the official government number and traders are hoping both numbers fall in line with expectations � however in recent months the ADP was not always a great indicator of the NFP.

At 11:00 PM GMT, the US Dollar was trading up .3% to the Euro to 1.4365, down .92% versus the Japanese Yen to 91.65, up .58% to the British Pound Sterling to 1.5993, down .26% against the Canadian Dollar to 1.0388 and down .16% to the Australian Dollar to .9117. The Dollar also made marginal gains against the Swiss Franc, rising .09% to 1.0331.

Analysis: EUR/USD

Despite everything that is happening in the US, the Euro is signaling that it is in a corrective phase now against the US Dollar. After a stellar 2009 for the Euro, largely a result of the declining Dollar, the trend seems to have ended in December.

Technically, the pair could test the horizontal support line of 136 and hover in that vicinity forming a higher bottom. Traders are lining up orders around 147 in the pair, a mark which is the 50 day moving average.
chartdec6.jpg

[morihoo]

Technical News EUR/USD
After going through a mild technical correction, it appears that the pair has resumed its general downtrend, as it is now trading at the 1.4350 level. Currently, as all oscillators on the 4-hour chart are pointing down, it seems that going short might be the preferable decision today.
GBP/USD
The pair is still trading within the bearish channel as the direction still points downward. However there is a bullish hint in the form of a cross on the 2 hour Slow Stochastic. The hourly chart's Bollinger Bands are tightening which indicates that the break is near. Going long with tight stops might be smart today.
USD/JPY
This pair is still in the midst of a steady uptrend which is not yet showing any sign of leveling out. There is also a very accurate bearish channel forming on the hourly chart indicating that there is still plenty of steam left in this bullish move. Once this pair breaches the 92.20 level it's likely to make another sharp break upwards.
USD/CHF
The pair is in the midst of a bullish correction, and is currently trading around the 1.0340 level. As all oscillators on the 4 hour chart are pointing up, another bullish session might take place. Going long seems to be preferable.

The Wild Card Platinum
After a period of volatile sessions, all oscillators on the hourly and 4 H charts are providing bullish signals, suggesting that this commodity is building a strong bullish momentum. Currently trading at $1536, Platinum might aim for the $1610 mark in the near future, giving forex traders an opportunity to enter the commodity at a convenient price.

[morihoo]

Euro Dollar

For the second day in a row, the Euro did not create any major or
technically meaningful moves. We maintained a trading range below Monday's
top 1.4555, and above the Asian session bottom for the same day 1.4452. It
seems like this trading range is getting tighter & tighter, which is a price
behavior that usually happens before large moves. The borders of this tight
area are drawn with the two small trend lines on the hourly chart which are
at 1.4531 & 1.4464. Thus, breaking any of these levels will move the Euro in
the direction of the break. If we break the resistance 1.4531 the odds of
going above 1.46 will be high, where the attractive targets 1.4625 & 1.4678
await. But if we break the support 1.4464, the Euro will fall again
targeting 1.4409 first, then 1.4331. And as it is the case with all tight
ranges, it is highly preferred not to take a bias towards any direction
before breaking the limits of the tight range.

Support:
* 1.4485: the trend line that limits the tight area from below.
* 1.4409: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
* 1.4331: previous well known support/resistance.

Resistance:
* 1.4531: the trend line that limits the tight area from above.
* 1.4625: Nov 3rd low.
* 1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the medium term.

[morihoo]

EUR/USD Open 1.4473 High 1.4549 Low 1.4458 Close 1.4488
After the break up of the 1.4229 - 1.4484 range on Monday Euro/Dollar traded quietly on Tuesday within around 90 pips range. We will be looking for convincing break above Monday's top and nearest resistance at 1,4549 to confirm the up trend with targets towards 1.4634 before possible test of 1.4722. Immediate support is yesterday's bottom at 1.4458. Penetration bellow this level may shake the bullish outlook and weaken the European currency further towards 1.4372. We will also expect any fundamental catalyst, which may give us better idea of the Euro's next movements. Tight trading limitations are recommended. The CCI indicator has crossed up the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, suggesting bullish pressure.
Technical resistance levels: 1.4549 1.4634 1.4722
Technical support levels: 1.4458 1.4372 1.4265

Trading range: 1.4470 - 1.4935
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.4481 SL 1.4451 TP 1.4921

[morihoo]

Technical News EUR/USD
The price of this pair continues to float in a range-trading pattern between 1.4550 and 1.4450. With the hourly RSI floating near the over-sold territory this pair is giving an indication that it may experience an upward movement within its current range. Buying on lows and selling on highs within this range-trading pattern may be a wise tactic today, but be on the lookout for a breach of this range pattern as it may signal a stronger movement.

[morihoo]

EUR/USD Open 1.4533 High 1.4576 Low 1.4458 Close 1.4509
Euro/Dollar continued its ascending movement on Wednesday after the break up of the 1.4229 - 1.4484 range at the beginning of the week, reaching a peak at 1.4576, and closing the day at 1.4509. Earlier today in the Asian session Euro traded hesitantly, retreating downwards to 1.4473, indicating limited ascending momentum. Trading signals are expected to continue rising for the intraday trading and in the short term, as long as quotes remain above 1.4450, with objectives towards 1.4600. The nearest support is yesterday's bottom at 1.4458. Break bellow this level may weaken the bulls' strength and trigger further downward impulse down to 1.4372. The CCI indicator has crossed up the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, suggesting bullish pressure.
Technical resistance levels: 1.4576 1.4664 1.4758
Technical support levels: 1.4458 1.4372 1.4265

Trading range: 1.4520 - 1.4585
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.4533 SL 1.4503 TP 1.4573

[morihoo]

EUR
At 12:45pm GMT, The European Central Bank's Governing Council meets for the first time this year and their non-decision on rates will be published. Expectations that the 1.00% rate will continue today and for the next several months. ‘Perhaps’ this will change later on but unlikely at the moment. Last week, the Bank of England retained its rates at 0.50%.
The meeting tied in to President Trichet’s ECB Press Conference will also discuss the implications of European weaknesses in the weaker Euro-Zones such as Greece. The ECB published a working paper in December that suggested it was unlikely for a member state to leave or be forced out of the monetary union. This could be more important than the actual Rate announcement.

Yesterday’s Lows & High
EUR/USD – 123 pips (1.4456-1.4579); EUR/GBP – 73 pips (0.8892-0.8965)
EUR/JPY – 170 pips (131.51-133.21); EUR/NZD – 23 pips (1.9595-1.9618)


USD

At 13:30 GMT, the U.S. Unemployment Claims are expected at 438k. This is even more important in today’s session due to last Fridays un-forecasted 85k decline in non-farm payroll raised the concern that the economy is not on target for a recovery and that improvement in the labor market may have slowed if not reversed!
The lack of new job creation will have other repercussions to the US recovery as it will encourage the US to boost job growth even further which would be included in a new stimulus plan; linked to the increased US budget deficit.

Yesterday’s Lows & High
USD/JPY – 65 pips (90.90-91.55); GBP/USD – 170 pips (1.6135-1.6305)
USD/CAD – 122 pips (1.0288-1.0410); GBP/CHF – 82pips (1.0136-1.0217)

[adnan10076]

For today at 11:21 EUR USD is like this...
Euro targets psychological level at 1.3000.

EUR/USD remains under pressure after resuming its sharp decline beneath key level at 1.3436 (50% Fib Oct/Jan decline) and triggering multiple reversal patterns.

The bears need to close decisively below 1.3000 (psychological support), in order to open further downside risk into 1.2630 (16 Jan swing low).

Only a confirmation back above 1.3291 (09th March high) and 1.3436/60 unlocks an extended recovery into our upside target zones at 1.3630 and 1.3650 (200-day average).

Inversely, the USD Index is holding steady after extending its latest rebound from key support at 78.25.

Expect this level to act as one of the last points of defence for a re-launch of the greenback’s recovery which is still part of our bullish cycle strategy for a further 20% gain over the multi-month period.

STRATEGY: SHORT 3: 1.3050, Obj: 1.2950/1.2830/1.2630, Stop: 1.3120.